JBC

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@SouthernValue95 I also agree its a large TAM…but pointed out to highlight we’re at point of spend assumptions that require step change increase in TFP.

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@SouthernValue95 Agree with this. Aren’t hyperscalers benefitting as well though from high ARR/GW which could be temporary? Bedrock for example taking rev share today, and would feel any compression as well.

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@SouthernValue95 Really thoughtful analysis, and I appreciate you sharing, but where does all the money come from to pay for lab ARR in any of these scenarios? Total US corporate profits are only ~$4T

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@elawless @Geo_papic Raising money at high valuations does not always mean unit economics are strong.

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@Geo_papic AI demand is definitely real I just mean to highlight there may be some overearning today and long-term ROIC is still very much unknow, especially given the amount of supply that folks are talking about bringing on

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Quality strategies, as defined by investing in companies with pricing power and durable earnings growth, also tend to fall out of favor when S&P earnings growth is almost 20% yoy. Earnings growth is less scarce. The quality of the current market earnings growth is another debate...

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@BetterIRR @SouthernValue95 There's way more margin selling frontier tokens today

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I just think there are so many open questions in this debate with a wide range of outcomes in future. I may just be dumb, but this one goes in the too hard pile to be confident in. I realize that's hard for most of industry, as it's where most people have made money last 10 years and huge part of benchmark.

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@viggy_krishnan @JohnHuber72 Could these ROICs be dynamic over time? I agree return prospects look good today for this vintage, but these 5 year agreements will be restruck at some point, which seems different to me than cloud 1.0 era.

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@SouthernValue95 @nachkari Hyperscaler ROIC still dependent on two frontier labs right now

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@SouthernValue95 @nachkari Selling to essentially two customers creates a very different dynamic. And those two customers are incentivized to overpay for compute today.

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@BillBrewsterTBB @WaterworldCapi1 There is not enough liquidity in long end of curve to be a signal. We are losing a lot of barrels that will be replaced. The supply chains of the last few decades are proving to be riskier than previously thought. Long Canadian oil sands.

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@BubleQe I don't think this is happening anytime soon. WEF is incentivized to double production at GFR (which they have a path to doing) before any merger

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@blueprintsmb22 @SixFinance 7-8% going forward seems very aggressive given starting point.

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@P_Remarks because everyone focusing on demand...when they should be focusing on supply side.

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@WaterworldCapi1 Most of the components of building a house (materials and labor) are low margin. Not the case with cost per GW equation, market know it’s not up and to the right forever.

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@rev_cap @JoshYoung it's really great we're approaching functional bottoms on the SPR in the low 70s. great decision making. America first.

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@UnintendedCons5 @JavierBlas what are you seeing re china?