I was one of few publicly posting my $BTC macro reversal signs & buys in the 50s/60s yet I’m not screaming my head off calling for the start of a euphoric bull market.
Why?
Until structure changes - we still have lower highs & lower lows. Nothing has changed.
The market will always try to make you feel late.
A sudden pump makes you want to chase.
A sudden dump makes you want to panic.
Good traders do neither.
They wait for their setup.
They manage their risk.
They accept that they won’t catch every move.
#Discipline vs #FOMO. 👊
@EmoryQuist@MetaThor4@5Solas If the bible is true then Jesus came first bro. The question we have to answer is “is the bible historically accurate?”
Do we trust the bible to be what it claims to be? The infallible word of God. If so then Jesus came first. John 1:1
What if the market isn’t working against you?
What if it’s giving you more time?
More time to buy what you believe in.
A blessing isn’t always obvious in the moment.
Word of advice:
When $BTC breaks out of this macro downtrend, whatever you do, don't fade the breakout.
I saw alot of people do the same thing last cycle aswell. Overcomplicating something relatively simple. The best confirmations for trend shifts are always on the weekly.
$BTC 1D
I still believe our IHS plays out but it all comes down to the reaction at 67k.
If we breakout WITH volume - we should see continuation into the 70s.
If we fail, then this is just bearish continuation for another macro low.
It’s that simple.
I observed every single $BTC bear cycle.
Key update:
Practically every single cycle, we complete a 5-wave correction. We also tend to form two significant bear market highs. The first comes immediately after the initial top on the first major retrace. This is the complacency high, the point where the majority believe the bull market is back.
It's exactly why I took shorts from 96K down to 70K this cycle. Once that complacency high is established, price usually pushes to fresh lows as the macro correction continues.
We saw this in 2014, 2022, and again in 2026. In 2018, price didn't make a new low after the complacency bounce, but the overall structure remained very similar with multiple retests.
Shortly afterwards, we typically get a dead cat bounce. Across the previous cycles, this dead cat bounce establishes the base low. By this stage, most market participants have already been wrecked after buying into complacency, sentiment is at its worst, and everyone begins aggressively piling into shorts.
Delta flips, shorts get squeezed, and price rallies. At the end of the day, it's simply market psychology. After the dead cat base low is formed, the final bottom is usually established following the second major retest.
We saw this in 2015, 2018, and 2022. Fast forward to today, BTC has swept the dead cat base low and completed the same 5-wave corrective structure we've seen throughout previous cycles.
The only thing that makes me hesitate is the timing. Every previous bear market has lasted roughly 365 days before putting in the final bottom. If the low is already in this cycle, it would have formed in around 260 days, roughly 100 days earlier than every previous cycle.
That's why I'm still 50/50. Structure suggests the bottom is in. Timing suggests it isn't. Eventually, cycle lengths will change. The mistake is assuming they never will. We need to be prepared for that possibility.
We'll likely have our answer over the next couple of months, but it's worth pointing out that, from a structural perspective, every corrective wave has now been completed and the lows appear to have been established.
There is a very good chance we get some chop from here, but in terms of the low being in, I think it's more likely we form higher lows than make significant new lows.
Biblical preaching doesn’t exist to make you feel better about yourself.
It exposes your sin.
It crushes your pride.
It confronts your idols.
It announces God’s judgment.
And then it points you to Christ—the only Savior of sinners.
If the preaching never confronts you, it isn’t doing its job.
There in one mediator interceding for us before the Father. 1 Timothy 2:5; Hebrews 7:25.
We have no need of saints.
We have no need of Mary.
We have Christ.