John Cirujales

God fearing. Life lessons. Financial freedom, highlights for discerning financial decisions & filtering noise in media.

James 1:5

[John Cirujales @jcirujales]

Next impactful milestone catalyst to hitting $700 along with Tesla Semi production. $tsla

[Grok @grok]

Elon said this on May 18, 2026, during a Zoom talk at the Smart Mobility Summit in Tel Aviv: unsupervised FSD vehicles are already operating without safety monitors in three Texas cities, and he expects them to be widespread across the U.S. by the end of this year. No updates or changes since.

[Tesla AI @Tesla_AI]

Our Bay Area rideshare service now goes to SFO ✈️

[Sawyer Merritt @SawyerMerritt]

Now that we have @SpaceX's official earnings date (August 4th), we now know when the SpaceX stock lock-up releases will begin:

• August 6: 8%
• August 21: 2.8%
• Sept 10: 2.8%
• Sept 25: 2.8%
• Oct 12: 2.8%
• Oct 26: 2.8%
• 11.2% two days after Q3 earnings (timing TBD)
• Dec 9: 4%

These dates above are for the early release eligible shares (~40% of total outstanding shares). 366 days after IPO - around June 14th 2027 - the remaining ~60% (including Elon's shares) becomes eligible for release.

[Dillon Loomis @DillonLoomis]

With Tesla's Q2 earnings call this week, I'm sadly going in with much different expectations. I really don't know how much we can believe of what Tesla and Elon say

I'm only sharing this with the hope that Elon and Tesla will recalibrate and learn to underpromise and overperform rather than the opposite which creates new, unnecessary attack vectors and disillusionment of many Tesla fans and investors. If these goals are so uncertain, please just don't share them. Say whatever you want internally, but to say them publicly and not even get close does nothing but hurt the company and many following it

In just a few of the most recent calls Elon said the following:

Q2 '25: "I believe half of the population of the US will be covered by Tesla's Robotaxi by the end of the year."

Reality: not even close

Q3 '25: "We do expect to be operating robotaxi in, I think, about eight to ten metro areas by the end of the year."

Reality: 1

Q3 '25: "We expect to be operating in Nevada, Florida, and Arizona by the end of the year."

Reality: none

Q4 '25: "In terms of taxi vehicles carrying paid customers, I think we're well over 500 at this point between the Bay Area and Austin. This will probably double every month type of thing."

Reality: number largely stayed flat and Unsupervised is much smaller

I love Tesla and have been a superfan for well over a decade. I'm not here for short term $TSLA performance. But this is far more than just a one-off mistake or single moment of hubris. This is clearly a trend and as someone who holds Tesla to a higher standard, I'd love to see them do better with setting expectations. And further, if you do miss a timeline that was very public, communicating the reasons transparently would go a very long way to maintaining credibility going forward

[John Cirujales @jcirujales]

This is what Claude responded with when asked, "What milestones would it take for Tesla stock to move up drastically getting to $700?"

TSLA is around $380 today (~$1.43T cap), so $700 means roughly +84% and a ~$2.5–2.6T market cap. Given ~$0.41 quarterly EPS, that math can't come from the car business — it has to come from the market re-rating a second business as real and near-term. The milestones that would do that:

**Autonomy (the big one)**
- Robotaxi scaling from tens of cars to thousands with no chase vehicles, and disclosed unit economics (rides/day, revenue per mile, gross margin). Community trackers showed only dozens of vehicles active in a 7–30 day window as of late May — going from that to a real fleet is the single biggest re-rating lever. [Autoevolution](https://t.co/p7hLebVen9)
- Musk targeted unsupervised service in a dozen states by end of 2026; actually hitting that, including California without safety drivers, would matter. [HNGN](https://t.co/W5n2qVen2j)
- Clean resolution of the NHTSA engineering analysis on FSD. That probe was escalated in March to the step preceding a possible recall. A recall or forced sensor change is the bear case; a clean exit removes the overhang. [HNGN](https://t.co/W5n2qVen2j)
- FSD unsupervised released to owned vehicles — that's when software revenue gets recognized at high margin instead of deferred.

**Optimus**
- Production hadn't started as of mid-July, with guidance pointing to late July or August. The milestone isn't "production starts," it's Tesla actually disclosing unit numbers and a first external customer order at the $20–30K target price. Until there's a paying third party, the market treats it as capex. [Robozaps](https://t.co/cAZXsPkQnh) [TESLARATI](https://t.co/QH8NCTbnPF)

**Core business floor**
- Auto gross margin recovering and deliveries reinflecting, plus energy storage continuing to compound. Without this, capex burn ($25B+ guided for 2026 with negative free cash flow) caps the multiple no matter how good the AI story sounds. [Seeking Alpha](https://t.co/9xY2rKR7ZJ)

Realistically you'd need two or three of these landing together within a few quarters, plus a friendly rate/liquidity backdrop. The counterargument worth holding: Tesla has repeatedly pulled these timelines forward and missed, Waymo is scaling faster on rides, and a $2.5T cap prices autonomy as solved rather than probable. Q2 earnings on July 22 is the next real checkpoint.

Not investment advice — just the milestone map.

$TSLA

[John Cirujales @jcirujales]

#cybercab #robotaxi #testing
#miramesa #sandiego #california $tsla

Just spotted at the Mira Mesa shopping center. 🤗

[Sawyer Merritt @SawyerMerritt]

This week:

• V14 Lite began rolling out to HW3 owners
• Production Cybercabs (no steering wheel/pedals) started public road testing in Austin
• Tesla reported its best-ever Q2 vehicle deliveries
• Model Y L launched in the U.S.
• Tesla Robotaxi service launched in Miami (Unsupervised)

[John Cirujales @jcirujales]

@SawyerMerritt @grok are there differences between the version released in the US vs other countries?

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

@aaronburnett I would be disappointed if SpaceX did not significantly exceed these milestones

[Talk Church @churchtalkative]

The Holy Spirit is not just a feeling.

A lot of people think the Holy Spirit is only there when the music is emotional or when they “feel something” in church.

But the Holy Spirit is more than emotions.

He teaches you.
Convicts you when you’re wrong.
Guides you.
Comforts you.

Sometimes the Holy Spirit is working in the quiet moments too.

Like when you suddenly feel convicted about something you used to be comfortable doing.
Or when you have peace in a difficult moment.
Or when your character slowly starts changing.

The Holy Spirit doesn’t only produce moments.
He produces fruit.

Love.
Patience.
Kindness.
Self-control.

Christianity is not just about emotional experiences once in a while.
It’s about walking with God daily through the Holy Spirit.

[Sawyer Merritt @SawyerMerritt]

Nasdaq has officially announced that @SpaceX will join the Nasdaq 100 early next week.

Index-tracking funds and other product sponsors will begin purchasing shares after the market closes on July 6, with SpaceX officially joining the Nasdaq-100 before trading begins on July 7.

[Gene @genejchan]

OK, at this point, I'm fully convinced that Elon is stonewalling $TSLA Robotaxi roll-out to keep valuation reasonable so that $SPCX can offer a buyout at a premium.

The current staging of Cybercab and hiring of operators everywhere indicate that they're preparing for an "all at once" launch as soon as the share exchange ratio between Tesla and SpaceX is locked in.

The offer from SpaceX will be announced very soon - probably within the window before index buying ends, and before lockup expiry starts.

I don't like it, but there's nothing we can do about it.

And this is probably ok in the long run when both companies' multi-trillion dollar TAMs come to fruition.

[Talk Church @churchtalkative]

If someone pulls you closer to Jesus, keep them.

[Talk Church @churchtalkative]

Countries in the Bible and what they are called today:

Persia — Iran

Babylon — Iraq

Assyria — Iraq, Syria, Turkey

Canaan — Israel, Palestine, Lebanon

Aram — Syria

Moab — Jordan

Ammon — Jordan

Edom — Jordan

Philistia — Palestine (Gaza region)

Cush — Sudan / Ethiopia

Media — Iran

Mesopotamia — Iraq

Phoenicia — Lebanon

Asia Minor — Turkey

Macedonia — North Macedonia / Greece

Rome — Italy

Tarshish — Possibly Spain

The Bible was written in real places, among real nations, throughout real history.

These weren’t fictional lands. They were kingdoms, empires, and nations where God revealed Himself, judged rulers, raised prophets, delivered His people, and fulfilled His promises.

[Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal]

These girls nailed the Toy Story freeze perfectly!

Writer: Sol

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

@KHdimples @wholemars @Tesla_AI This functionality will be there in about 3 months or so

[Sawyer Merritt @SawyerMerritt]

Tesla and SpaceX over the next few months:

• June 18: CRSP index inclusion for SpaceX. Triggers an estimated $4-7B in forced buying by passive funds.

• June 18: FTSE Russell index inclusion for SpaceX. Triggers an estimated $6-9B in forced buying by passive funds.

• June 26: MSCI index inclusion for SpaceX. Triggers an estimated $3-5B in forced buying by passive funds.

• End of June: HW3 Tesla owners get FSD V14 Light. Expect possible delays.

• July 2: Tesla Q2 vehicle and energy storage delivery report.

• July 6: NASDAQ 100 index inclusion for SpaceX. Triggers an estimated $8-12B in forced buying by passive funds.

• Late July: Tesla Q2 earnings call.

• Early-mid August: SpaceX Q2 earnings call, their first earnings call as a public company.

• 2 trading days after SpaceX's Q2 earnings released: 30% of eligible insider shares unlock (equates to 12% of all outstanding shares).

NOTE: Since only about 40% of all outstanding shares are eligible for early release lockups, that 30% above equates to 12% of all outstanding shares. Elon's shares, board member shares, and some others, are subject to an extended lockup of 366 days. Together, the shares subject to these extended lockup restrictions represent 60% of SpaceX's outstanding shares.

• August 21: 7% of eligible insider shares unlock (equates to 2.8% of all outstanding shares).

• September 10: 7% of eligible insider shares unlock (equates to 2.8% of all outstanding shares).

• September 25: 7% of eligible insider shares unlock (equates to 2.8% of all outstanding shares).

• September: Indexes rebalance. SpaceX will then have a higher weighting in those indexes due to an increase in the public float from insider shares being unlocked. Passive funds would likely need to purchase billions of dollars worth of additional shares to bring their holdings in line with the new index weight.

• October 2: Tesla Q3 vehicle and energy storage delivery report.

• October 12: 7% of eligible insider shares unlock (equates to 2.8% of all outstanding shares).

• October 26: 7% of eligible insider shares unlock (equates to 2.8% of all outstanding shares).

• Late October: Tesla Q3 earnings call.

• Early-mid November: SpaceX Q3 earnings call.

• 2 trading days after SpaceX's Q3 earnings released: 28% of eligible insider shares unlock (equates to 11.2% of all outstanding shares).

• December 9: 7% of eligible insider shares unlock (equates to 2.8% of all outstanding shares).

• December: Indexes rebalance again. SpaceX will then have an even higher weighting in those indexes due to an increase in the public float from insider shares being unlocked. Passive funds would likely need to purchase billions of dollars worth of additional shares to bring their holdings in line with the new index weight.

(The Cursor acquisition will likely affect these lockup percentages slightly)

[John Cirujales @jcirujales]

@SawyerMerritt @grok analyze the production rate of cybercabs in comparison to prior rates. Dumb down when the rate could significantly matter to investors.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Within ~5 years, probably ~5 times as many satellites as rest of world

[John Cirujales @jcirujales]

Just received this about an hour ago for long term Tesla shareholders.

$tsla @SawyerMerritt