Jake Jones

Sports modeling and data-driven betting. Building predictive models for MLB, NFL, NBA, UFC, and ATP.

[Jake Jones @JCJ_Bets]

Small slate today but still some good value plays to cash some dingers!

[Jake Jones @JCJ_Bets]

Laureano✅

[Jake Jones @JCJ_Bets]

Dinger Tuesday list Pt. 1

Rest of slate coming as lineups confirm!

[Jake Jones @JCJ_Bets]

Jazz✅

[Jake Jones @JCJ_Bets]

Dinger Tuesday list Pt. 1

Rest of slate coming as lineups confirm!

[Jake Jones @JCJ_Bets]

Grisham✅

[Jake Jones @JCJ_Bets]

Dinger Tuesday list Pt. 1

Rest of slate coming as lineups confirm!

[Jake Jones @JCJ_Bets]

Wenceel Perez ✅

[Jake Jones @JCJ_Bets]

Dinger Tuesday list Pt. 1

Rest of slate coming as lineups confirm!

[Jake Jones @JCJ_Bets]

Volpe✅

[Jake Jones @JCJ_Bets]

Dinger Tuesday list Pt. 1

Rest of slate coming as lineups confirm!

[Jake Jones @JCJ_Bets]

Bellinger✅

[Jake Jones @JCJ_Bets]

Dinger Tuesday list Pt. 1

Rest of slate coming as lineups confirm!

[Jake Jones @JCJ_Bets]

Adell✅

[Jake Jones @JCJ_Bets]

Dinger Tuesday list Pt. 1

Rest of slate coming as lineups confirm!

[Jake Jones @JCJ_Bets]

Ceddanne goes early!✅

[Jake Jones @JCJ_Bets]

Dinger Tuesday list Pt. 1

Rest of slate coming as lineups confirm!

[Jake Jones @JCJ_Bets]

Dinger Tuesday list Pt. 1

Rest of slate coming as lineups confirm!

[Jake Jones @JCJ_Bets]

I’m about to drop a dinger Tuesday list from my model, but I wanted to clarify first. My bet/lean threshold is based on VALUE, not PROBABILITY. The players that check both boxes will be marked, and I’ll also have a list of high probability that don’t hit on value.

[Jake Jones @JCJ_Bets]

@BauerOutage @Reds you know what to do

[Jake Jones @JCJ_Bets]

4/24 guys to go yard pt. 2:

Daulton Varsho (TOR) ✅ value/✅ probability
Kyle schwarber (PHI) ❌ value/✅ probability
Mickey moniak (COL) ❌ value/✅ probability
Rhys Hoskins (CLE) ❌ value/✅ probability

[Jake Jones @JCJ_Bets]

4/24 guys to go yard pt. 1:

Colson Montgomery (CWS) ✅ value/✅ probability
George Valera (CLE) ✅ value/✅ probability
Everson pereira (CWS) ✅ value/✅ probability
Kyle manzardo (CLE) ✅ value/✅ probability
Jose Ramirez (CLE) ✅ value/✅ probability

[Jake Jones @JCJ_Bets]

@0Christian3_ @TaberTimot84789 @CoachZachSmith You might actually be brain dead. Nobody in their right mind is having nabers in their top 5.

[Jake Jones @JCJ_Bets]

@0Christian3_ @TaberTimot84789 @CoachZachSmith I’m dying to hear who the 3 of the top 5 receivers are.

[Jake Jones @JCJ_Bets]

Brandon Lowe (PIT) ✅ value, ✅ probability
Ryan O’Hearn (PIT) ✅ value, ❌ probability
Francisco Alvarez (NYM) ❌ value, ✅ probability

[Jake Jones @JCJ_Bets]

Here’s what I’ve got so far today:

Schwarber (PHI) ❌value,✅ probability
Miguel Amaya (CHI)✅ value, ❌ probability
Michael Busch (CHI) ✅ value, ❌ probability
Dansby Swanson (CHI) ✅ value, ❌ probability
CJ Abrams (WAS) ✅ value, ❌ probability

More coming!

[Jake Jones @JCJ_Bets]

Mickey Moniak (COL) ✅ value, ✅ probability

[Jake Jones @JCJ_Bets]

Brandon Lowe (PIT) my only other take. There are always going to be guys that go that I don’t list, and guys that don’t go that I do. I’m chasing value with my plays. Is Shohei a good take tonight? Of course. But my model has his implied odds at +340, so +290 isn’t good value.

[Jake Jones @JCJ_Bets]

Still waiting on all lineup confirmations, but here are my favorite so far to go yard today:

Gary Sanchez (MIL)
Drake Baldwin (ATL)
CJ Abrams (WAS)

More coming!