Jason Rochon | Tides Alpha

ES • SPX • Volatility
Markets move in waves.
Trade the flow.

[Jason Rochon | Tides Alpha @jcrochon]

Building something new.

Daily market levels, volatility setups, psychology, and macro without the circus.

Stay tuned.

[Jason Rochon | Tides Alpha @jcrochon]

@moneymotive888 I’m in

[Jason Rochon | Tides Alpha @jcrochon]

@cobraalerts I’m in

[Jason Rochon | Tides Alpha @jcrochon]

@vulturetrades Trade

[Jason Rochon | Tides Alpha @jcrochon]

@Basssem666 At this point bears could get handed an actual recession, sticky inflation, rising yields, and hawkish policy…

…and $SPY would still probably open +1.4% because somebody whispered “AI productivity.”

[Jason Rochon | Tides Alpha @jcrochon]

Not trying to expose my age here… but some of us were trading the E*TRADE “Beat the Street” virtual contests during the original dot-com insanity.

Back then people thought the internet was a joke… right before it changed literally everything.

That’s why I try to respect momentum during transformational technology cycles, even when valuations start looking crazy.

[Jason Rochon | Tides Alpha @jcrochon]

@FinanceLancelot Crazy part is how many bearish technical setups have failed the second volatility starts compressing again.

Feels like dealer flow has overruled clean chart patterns for months.

[Jason Rochon | Tides Alpha @jcrochon]

@TraderJonesy Honestly it’s been so long since I’ve even heard people casually mention numbers like 720 $SPY that part of my brain still assumes every dip will somehow get violently bought within 48 hours.

This market has completely conditioned traders to expect V-shaped recoveries.

[Jason Rochon | Tides Alpha @jcrochon]

At this point every bearish $SPY pattern just feels like bait for trapped puts.

Market dips 1%, everyone starts drawing downside continuation charts, then one volatility flush later we’re ripping right back to highs again.

This tape has punished early bears for years.

What do you think it actually takes to create a sustained downside move greater than 1–2% or even toward the levels @TraderJ0esph/Jonesy has proposed?

Real macro deterioration?
Liquidity event?
Credit stress?
Or simply volatility finally sustaining expansion?

[Jason Rochon | Tides Alpha @jcrochon]

@HenrikZeberg No payment due.
No pattern day trade restriction.
AI bullish.
Time to YOLO the credit card minimum payment into 0DTE calls.

What could possibly go wrong?

$SPY $QQQ $0DTE

[Jason Rochon | Tides Alpha @jcrochon]

@Mr_Derivatives Bonds…..shmonds.

Apparently nobody cares unless it impacts AI.

At this point the market probably believes artificial intelligence will eventually solve:

• bond yields
• deficits
• productivity
• inflation
• and maybe my trading mistakes too.

$TLT $SPX $QQQ

[Jason Rochon | Tides Alpha @jcrochon]

@TheRealDrip2Rip Late-day 0DTE revenge trading is probably responsible for more future homelessness than inflation.

One bad decision at 3:47 PM can turn a “quick scalp” into a full psychological collapse.

Base hits compound.

Degeneracy compounds faster.

$SPX $SPY $0DTE

[Jason Rochon | Tides Alpha @jcrochon]

Markets can give bulls a black eye in minutes.

They can leave bears bleeding for years.

That’s the part people forget during volatility spikes.

The tape can stay mechanically bullish far longer than macro logic expects.

By 2028, nobody may remember why they panic sold here.

Trade the flow.

$SPX $SPY $VIX $ES_F

[Jason Rochon | Tides Alpha @jcrochon]

That’s the part most bears underestimated.

After a 17% squeeze, downside becomes much harder mechanically unless volatility can sustain expansion.

Today:

• $VIX couldn’t hold breakout
• VVIX faded
• dealer pressure relaxed
• and trapped shorts became fuel again

Macro may still matter later.

But intraday, flow > narrative.

$SPX $SPY $VIX

[Jason Rochon | Tides Alpha @jcrochon]

Today was not an easy tape in $SPX $ES_F $VIX.

This was a volatility-driven squeeze regime with:

• failed downside continuation
• collapsing VVIX
• aggressive short covering
• dealer flow repricing
• headline-driven positioning

A lot of good traders got trapped today.

That happens.

Trading is not about being right every minute.

It’s about adapting to the current flow of:

• price
• volatility
• positioning
• liquidity

If trading were easy, everyone would do it.

Tomorrow is a new session.

Reset. Reassess. Respect the tape.

Trade the tides.

$SPY $SPX $VIX

[Jason Rochon | Tides Alpha @jcrochon]

What you’re seeing is NOT just retail meme buying.

This is a mix of:

• dealer hedging
• CTA trend mechanics
• short covering
• macro headline positioning
• event-driven gamma chasing

Different game.

The market does NOT need bullish fundamentals to rally short term.

It only needs:

1. trapped positioning
2. volatility compression
3. offsides shorts
4. headlines resolving “less bad”

That’s why so many macro traders get frustrated.

They’re thinking:

• CPI wasn’t great
• macro still unstable
• Trump headlines may disappoint

Meanwhile the market is trading:

• flows
• convexity
• dealer inventory
• event probabilities

Those are not the same thing.

Today’s tape was a classic squeeze structure.

Look at the sequence:

• hard flush into 7363
• VIX spike near 19.1
• VVIX above 103
• then VVIX collapses while ES reclaims level after level

That matters.

In many ways, VVIX was the most important chart today — not ES.

When:

• VVIX falls
• VIX fades
• ES continues higher

…it often signals panic demand for convexity is fading.

Once that happens:

• dealer hedging pressure relaxes
• short gamma effects weaken
• ES can levitate much faster than fundamentals justify

7412 was the key reclaim earlier.

Now price is holding above it.

That materially changes structure.

Near term:

• 7410–7412 support
• 7425–7430 resistance
• above that:
• 7440
• 7455–7460

So the “7460 before the meeting” idea is not mechanically crazy.

Especially when:

• positioning got defensive
• VIX failed to sustain breakout
• everyone expects bad news
• and markets love inflicting maximum pain into events

This is where traders get destroyed:

Shorting every rally because the macro “should” matter.

Sometimes it eventually does.

But timing is everything.

Professional framework:

Separate your macro thesis
from the current order flow regime.

After ~7365 today, the tape clearly transitioned from:

• liquidation
to
• squeeze/repricing

Fighting that transition intraday is usually expensive.
$SPY $ES $SPX $VIX

[Jason Rochon | Tides Alpha @jcrochon]

Premarket view:

ES balancing around 7395 after yesterday’s trend day.

What matters now:
VIX and VVIX remain elevated despite ES holding relatively firm.

That tells me:
• dealers still pricing event risk
• volatility not fully comfortable fading
• potential for larger intraday swings remains elevated

Key levels:

Bullish:
7400–7402 acceptance
+
VIX fading below 17.3
+
VVIX flattening

THEN continuation higher toward 7410+ becomes more likely.

Bearish:
7390 loss
+
VIX expansion above 17.6
+
failed reclaim

THEN downside acceleration toward:
7382
7375
7365

Main takeaway:
No chasing.
No random red-candle shorts.

Today feels more like a market structure/trade location day than blind momentum continuation.

[Jason Rochon | Tides Alpha @jcrochon]

@SoulzBTC Trading

[Jason Rochon | Tides Alpha @jcrochon]

Good morning.

ES grinding higher again — clean breakout above 7260 with no real pullbacks.
VIX still getting crushed (16 handle)… no fear in this tape.
P/C elevated but price doesn’t care.

This is what one-sided positioning looks like.

Question isn’t “if” we pull back…
it’s how late you are when it finally happens.

[Jason Rochon | Tides Alpha @jcrochon]

@Mr_Derivatives Everyone talking 13–14…
wouldn’t shock me to see a 12 handle like the old days.