Joshua Baker

[Joshua Baker @jdbaker0826]

Lesson: Monday’s selloff was sentiment catching up to a hot trade, not the AI/memory demand story breaking down. When fear spikes on a single overnight move, check whether the real numbers have actually changed before assuming the worst.

[Joshua Baker @jdbaker0826]

Two days ago, South Korea’s chip stocks crashed ~10% overnight on AI-overheating fears, dragging Micron and other US chip stocks down double digits with it. The question: healthy pullback, or something breaking?

[Joshua Baker @jdbaker0826]

Stock jumped 6%+ on the print and dragged the rest of the chip sector higher — the same names that got crushed two days ago.

[Joshua Baker @jdbaker0826]

Worth knowing: this matches a CNBC appearance from about a month ago, not new. Also worth the bigger pattern — Saylor’s called this exact “$60K bottom” multiple times this year (April, and now again), and Bitcoin has revisited that level more than once since each call. Repeating a bottom call isn’t the same as it being confirmed.

[Joshua Baker @jdbaker0826]

Worth knowing: this is recycled from March, not new — Chamath said this at the World Government Summit months ago. Also worth the nuance: he’s not anti-Bitcoin generally, he’s specifically skeptical of it as a central bank reserve asset due to its traceable ledger. Bitwise’s CIO publicly pushed back on the argument at the time too — this was a real, contested debate, not a settled “warning.

[Joshua Baker @jdbaker0826]

Bigger story than the post lets on: ETH fell ~7% on this news, this caps 18 months of leadership turnover (9 departures including both co-executive directors), and the Foundation is shutting down its in-house privacy research team entirely while cutting its overall budget 40%. This is a real strategic pivot — from “primary operator” to “one of many guardians” of Ethereum — not routine restructuring.

[Joshua Baker @jdbaker0826]

The naming pattern’s becoming its own kind of roadmap — Starlink (internet), Starship (transport), Starbase (manufacturing site), and now Starfall (orbital manufacturing/reentry). You can basically track SpaceX’s business expansion just by watching which “Star-” name shows up next.

[Joshua Baker @jdbaker0826]

Worth noting this is a real, repeated thesis of his — not a one-off soundbite. The economic counterpoint: mainstream economics has long assumed human wants are functionally infinite, since desires shift to relative status, novelty, and scarcity itself once basic needs are met (this is actually something Musk has acknowledged elsewhere too — he’s said the only scarcity left would be things like unique artwork). Worth separating “AI could make material abundance enormous” — likely true — from “human desire has a ceiling” — much less certain.

[Joshua Baker @jdbaker0826]

Bigger context here: this is almost certainly the brand name for SpaceX’s orbital AI compute constellation — the business that’s been building since the xAI merger in February. The first satellite (AI1) already launched, and Anthropic and Google are reportedly paying SpaceX over $1B/month combined for compute access. STARMIND is the name, not the idea — the idea’s already real and generating revenue.

[Joshua Baker @jdbaker0826]

@WallStreetMav That engine is a beautiful sound

[Joshua Baker @jdbaker0826]

Real driver here: South Korea’s Kospi cratered ~10% overnight as Samsung and SK Hynix dropped 12%+ on AI-chip-overheating fears, which spread straight into Micron, Marvell, and Sandisk in US trading. Worth watching Micron’s earnings tomorrow — that’s the next real signal on whether this is a healthy pullback or the start of something bigger.

[Joshua Baker @jdbaker0826]

This is a bigger deal than the post lets on — Starfall isn’t just another capsule, it’s SpaceX’s first step into in-space manufacturing-as-a-service. They’ve floated it as a potential successor to the ISS for things like pharma and semiconductor production in microgravity. Worth watching as a third real business line beyond launch and Starlink.

[Joshua Baker @jdbaker0826]

Why SpaceX stock is swinging 16%+ in a single day — and it’s not really about the company.
SpaceX went public on June 12 at $135. It hit $225 four days later. It’s been below $150 today. Same company, same business, wildly different price — all in under two weeks.
The real reason: only about 4.2% of SpaceX’s shares are actually tradeable right now. The rest are locked up post-IPO. When almost the entire supply of a stock is held back, a small amount of buying or selling moves the price violently — there’s no deep pool of shares to absorb it.
This cuts both ways. It’s why SPCX melted up to $225 on hype alone. It’s also why a single bad headline (a new bond sale, debt concerns) can knock 16% off in a day.
The next thing to watch: insider lockups start unlocking in waves starting around August, potentially releasing up to 44% of shares by September — a roughly 900% increase in tradeable supply. When that much new supply hits at once, expect more volatility, not less.
Lesson: when a stock just IPO’d and swings wildly, check the float before assuming the moves mean something fundamental changed about the business.

[Joshua Baker @jdbaker0826]

Real project, just not new — Dorsey launched Bitchat back in mid-2025. Also worth the precise mechanic: it doesn’t fully escape needing the internet, it relays your signed transaction phone-to-phone until any device in the mesh has a connection to actually broadcast it. Great for local outages or shutdowns, not literal “kill the whole internet and it still confirms.

[Joshua Baker @jdbaker0826]

@AlexMasonCrypto Only one publicly calling $16K” isn’t accurate — that exact range was one of the most widely cited bottoms of 2022. A 200-week MA strategy is a real, simple approach worth knowing, but “beat 98% of traders” with no backtest shown is just a number, not evidence.

[Joshua Baker @jdbaker0826]

Real quote, fair point — though worth remembering this also doubles as Musk talking up his own product. Starlink now accounts for roughly 80% of all active satellites in orbit. Internet access genuinely correlates with economic opportunity, but it’s not nothing that the person saying so also profits directly from selling that access.

[Joshua Baker @jdbaker0826]

The numbers here are accurate, but worth adding the “why”: only ~4-5% of SPCX shares are actually tradeable right now post-IPO. That thin float is what made this melt up so violently last week, and it’s exactly why it’s crashing this hard now too — illiquid stocks swing both directions harder than mature ones. This isn’t necessarily “the bubble bursting,” it could just be what thin-float price discovery looks like.

[Joshua Baker @jdbaker0826]

The lira collapse is real and brutal — just not quite 99.99% on this timeframe. From 2007 to now it’s down about 97% against the dollar, which is still one of history’s worst currency collapses. The “currencies can be debased, hard assets can’t” argument holds up fine without needing to round up the number.

[Joshua Baker @jdbaker0826]

@miranowhere It’s likely the wealth we have generated