jddonovan

See the forest for the trolls.

If you take anything on Twitter as advice, the mistake is yours.

[jddonovan @jddonovan_]

@ChrisO_wiki Not paranoia. Without the inspections, pretty sure there would be bombs riding on the bridge.

[jddonovan @jddonovan_]

@CRUDEOIL231 @Ish_Babulal the market is continuously wrong. But it's the only signal we have. Also futures vs. prompt told a completely different story.

Futures are not forecasts. Oil could still shoot up near-/midterm. crude futures price action right now is just a snapshot of today's views.

[jddonovan @jddonovan_]

@DcDxii Capex has never been sustainable. Models were supposed to become more efficient -- that view came especially from OpenAI.

But Anthropic realised that quality sells better than price per token/prompt/result.

[jddonovan @jddonovan_]

@FreightAlley Ryanair would like to disagree!

[jddonovan @jddonovan_]

@KYRRadio but vix is low? That's when you go short!

[jddonovan @jddonovan_]

@BidBird10 I got into $FAR.L since my stink bid got filled. Would I be correct to assume that you'd think it's a safer bet to play the vanadium story atm.?

Can't remember exactly, but I think I calculated 3-4x upside with the elevated Vanadium assumption for FAR.L without risk of bk.

[jddonovan @jddonovan_]

@tomppajo Fortum? can't see how that would be a "winner", although won't be a loser either.

[jddonovan @jddonovan_]

@refreshingsoda8 @dampedspring Well the straight up is happening. Let's see what happens this week.

[jddonovan @jddonovan_]

@refreshingsoda8 @dampedspring No I'm thinking we'll hit the same s&p 7000 wall as we've been hitting since October. So we'd go sideways now for a while.

[jddonovan @jddonovan_]

@tomppajo For companies such as Shell, the windfall taxes were not that big as a fraction of profit. It varies wildly between companies/jurisdictions.

[jddonovan @jddonovan_]

@John_ForemanCBE I just read your post and not the quoted post, and just assumed it was about the US. Lack of school shooting as a mention should have given it away 😅

Russia is a hopeless case until they get economy running. Baltics works as a good example what would (and wouldn't) work there.

[jddonovan @jddonovan_]

@Liathetrader Because safety regulations and strict processes has reduced the chances of accidents.

People are becoming oblivious to the dangers around them since everything is being idiot proofed. So when proofing fails, they're not looking around and they will be taken by surprise.

[jddonovan @jddonovan_]

@GoldForecast Dated prices have constantly had around $30 premium over futures. So were around $130. Futures are incredibly optimistic.

[jddonovan @jddonovan_]

@GoldForecast Pffft. Tomra has been top notch with sorting technology and I've owned shares in it. But hardly AI. It's using ready set parameters as before. It's just that they increasingly use AI to set those parameters instead of manually optimising.

[jddonovan @jddonovan_]

@Henrik115 I'd say it's mostly due to technicals being hit and high level of being net-short. It was bound to cause a short-covering rally.

It's somewhat likely we'll be going down again and strong, but usually it takes around 3-4 weeks for covering to clear. So some time still.

[jddonovan @jddonovan_]

@FirstSquawk It's upforward?

[jddonovan @jddonovan_]

@AyusoValue It's technicals and short-covering. The natural trend is always up, and with all the net shorts, it would need something earth shattering to break lower.

But it will break lower, sooner or later.

[jddonovan @jddonovan_]

@EconguyRosie Dude, it's technicals and short covering.