J Douglas

Author BigWave: 10 Reasons High-growth Companies Fail.

[J Douglas @jdfink5]

@ParkerThayer Hawley… maybe he got insider knowledge that the AI space is about to meltdown … wants to appear prescient

[J Douglas @jdfink5]

@IllinoisProf Wait, the wide receiver on the football team is making $900K, and will play one year.

[J Douglas @jdfink5]

Wild speculation making the rounds amongst the gov retirees at McDonald’s breakfast club … the breaking news timed after election. 1./, Jensen activities known for awhile. 2./ it is alleged Jensen is proponent of open source AI. Closed source guys getting desperate. 3. Newly elected H & S leadership want closed source ai… thinking they will regulate and control. So, Jensen had to go in their eyes 4./ current admin People knew what was going on. The retirees (not maga supporters) speculate both Howard and don were in on it … paving way for impeachment grounds for violating exports laws and aiding and abetting an adversary …

No one has any facts, just making up a good story.

The story has a familiar drum beat… the ‘ol guys may be on to something, maybe more shoes to fall in coming days. More likely, they got carried away on too much caffeine .

[J Douglas @jdfink5]

@atelicinvest The Closed Source tribe.

[J Douglas @jdfink5]

@stelzner_n1150 Disney actually

[J Douglas @jdfink5]

THEY waited until after the mid-terms, didnt they?

Possibly, the timing is a political, economic, social tipping point of some sort? The beginning of some movement?

Or, maybe THEY needed a distraction from something else?

Do THEY have information on others in the AI / Tech ecosystem?

[J Douglas @jdfink5]

@ExcelHumor MSFT holds ALL the cards... they control all the fingertips across all business / consumer platforms. By far, the strongest position ... if they are smart will keep capital and pick up Ant and Open for cheap.

[J Douglas @jdfink5]

@JaguarAnalytics More schemes, larger values. Maybe @davidsacks comes in... :)

[J Douglas @jdfink5]

You are correct about the GOP ineffectively politicizing the struggles facing the young.

Yet, the people behind the cause of these issues is bi-partisan. It all begins in the 1980’s when the Global Investor Class started buying up and outsourcing US manufacturing … and with it the dream of economic mobility. Both parties actively participated.

The dems seized the political moment … but wont do anything to fix it.

[J Douglas @jdfink5]

@alfarojoshua3 Can we just go back to fear mongering about Russia and training our kids to hide under school desks?

[J Douglas @jdfink5]

@djheakin It would be easy for USG to lower house prices. Cut the FHA loan guarantee limits by 50%.

[J Douglas @jdfink5]

GREAT analysis... Thank you! Forgive me for piling on w a nuanced point.

The amount of fear-mongering in the US about the strategic need to 'build out AI FAST and win the race' to compete with China is VERY high.

It is also, important to note, that when a Data Center is built approximately 80% of the cash to build the data center goes to Asia... to regions China controls or massively influences. Same holds for the labor to produce AI capability is about 60% to the region.

Genius sales strategy... used for decades in InfoTech. China wins, either way. The impact is an enormous economic vulnerability w plans to spend (not invest) up to incremental $10T+

A great economic development plan for the APAC region... just crumbs for on-shore US economic development.

I hope there will be GREAT, immediate transparency on what Jensen, Larry and Howard have been up to.

I do not know NatSec.... but the from an Intellectual Property, Economic Standing and physical / strategic military standpoint... the US may be facing its greatest risk. Compounded by a transition in political control and an Admin with a high need for popularity.

The question about the 'ability to assess, recognize and respond is the great question of the day.

[J Douglas @jdfink5]

Very good analysis... From an investment perspective, The dotcom era did not produce much 'investment' ROI... Webvan, https://t.co/IVSvoi3iGf, Monster, blah, blah... all long gone. Most of the telecom manufactures / service providers, long gone. Some companies survived for awhile...

YES! ... some traders made money... but industry ROI, not so much. The current Mag7 valuations / impact on indexes, more a function of easy 'institutional' access to money, and wild ass growth in M2. EBIT valuation ratios on these firms are .... high.

You are correct... there is long term benefit of the internet... which reduced friction is communication, educating and conducting global business. It delivered constructive value and some hope.

AI... you are correct, something is wrong. I'll keep looking for the pony / unicorn though.

[J Douglas @jdfink5]

@ByronYork Save The Lobstah Rolls!

[J Douglas @jdfink5]

@lukeburgis The clip looks like a scene from HBO's Silicon Valley series. What is useful, this is an internally developed piece, 'thoughtfully' produced.

I continue to say... Dario and Sam are villain characters out of a James Bond of Mission Impossible movie.

[J Douglas @jdfink5]

Since the new millennium... the markets have changed, haven't they?

Classic cash flow, intrinsic approaches to valuation in assessing growth organization are gone. So, only the big, get bigger.

In a world of Modern Monetary Theory, where M2 grows massively across the Globe.... Only Market based approaches are levered.

So, the Story and Market hype is what matters.

Going forward, there are two approaches.

1. Invest in and Build Giants... The Goliaths.
2. Invest in and Build niche, big value, highly talented small firms... The Davids.

There will no longer be an efficient path for Davids to go public. The only efficient paths will be for The David's is to be Acquired by The Goliath's.

[J Douglas @jdfink5]

Everyone needs to simply the AI discussion.

First... the so called Revenue Run Rates. Based on my view, ~ 90% of 'this revenue' comes from some form of financial investment $'s... by some firm ... in speculative product development / experimental phase of operation. E.g. a company has raised $ to build a healthcare app to cure a hangover.

10% is possibly consumed by a person or organization to actually add value to the overall economy. A person pays X to create memes for their books or MSFT to create ppt slides to raise money for their AI start up.

Second... the costs of the 90% experimental phase sits on these companies' balance sheet somewhere as Cap'd Product Cost, Not yet being Amort, then when product launches written off over a 10 year period.

$4T to $5T raised thus far ... is all being spent on a great Tech Bro science project, sitting on balance sheet somewhere.

Who benefits from the scheme?

If it works, Govt... they will SOON have to provide $ as a bailout, then will have control over a tech to aggregate data on the population and conduct social engineering. (I know... tin hat stuff).

China and other Asian economies to mfg Data Center Components (~80% of a DC spend goes to those economies) and provide staffing.

The only other beneficiaries are less than .0025 of the workforce who stand to collect commissions, fees etc for the buildout.... and who are current wage earners involved in build out.

[J Douglas @jdfink5]

A large percentage of people wring their hands about the growing gaps in wealth and income. The ATF amongst this crowd, yet the topic IS a real issue for US.

The fix to this is easy. Not a form of some 'ism'.

Free Markets... economic Darwinism.

Extract Gov from home mortgages and student lending... Impact? Lower Prices of homes and education.

You are polite, there is NO reasoning to bailing out banks, airlines and auto industries etc...

The government should in NO way be involved in AI... AT ALL... other than to enforce existing copyrights and product liability against the AI vendors for 'rouge' code.

The AI meltdown may very well be worse than housing and Covid...

[J Douglas @jdfink5]

The Gov should completely exit the student loan business. Bush II started this fraud... States need to better educate students and parents to provide a living level of personal finance and economics.

While we are it... if you want affordable housing ... stop Fed'l Guarantee of home loans, or at least lower the limit of the guarantee by at least 50%.

My next solution to fix the US, Term limits for elected, appointed, and SES officials.

[ActiveMelody @activemelody]

Mix harmony with the Minor Pentatonic scale to play a melodic Blues lead. #guitarlessons #leadguitar #bluesguitar