James Carter IV

Oppo researcher; political junkie; policy wonk; President of Carter Research, LLC and a recurring character in 47% of Mitt Romney's nightmares. Hold Fast

[James Carter IV @JECarter4]

Never mind

[James Carter IV @JECarter4]

I have made the decision to no longer haunt 47% of Mitt Romney's nightmares. We're good.

[James Carter IV @JECarter4]

@TVietor08 A Gooner in the UK is a fan of the Arsenal Football team. Arsenal's nickname is the Gunners. Their fans are Gooners.

[James Carter IV @JECarter4]

My 7 year old niece gave my sister a handwritten Mother's Day card. The first line: "You make me laugh when you do 1900s stuff." Lol

[Peter Girnus 🦅 @gothburz]

I am a diplomatic aide in the Sultanate of Oman's Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

My job is logistics. When two countries that cannot speak to each other need to speak to each other, I book the rooms. I prepare the briefing materials. I make sure the water glasses are the right distance apart. You would be surprised how much of diplomacy is water glasses. Too close and it feels informal. Too far and it feels like a tribunal. I have a chart.

We had a very good month.

Since January, Oman has been mediating indirect talks between the United States and Iran on Iran's nuclear program. The talks were held in Muscat and in Geneva. The Americans would sit in one room. The Iranians would sit in another room. I would walk between them. My Fitbit says I averaged fourteen thousand steps on negotiation days. The hallway between the two rooms at the Royal Opera House conference center is forty-seven meters. I walked it two hundred and twelve times in February. This is good for my cardiovascular health. It was less good for my knees. Both are in the service of peace.

By mid-February, we had something.

Iran agreed to zero stockpiling of enriched uranium. Not reduced stockpiling. Zero. They agreed to down-blend existing stockpiles to the lowest possible level. They agreed to convert them into irreversible fuel. They agreed to full IAEA verification with potential US inspector access. They agreed, in the Foreign Minister's phrase, to "never, ever" possess nuclear material for a bomb. I have worked in diplomacy for seven years. I have never seen a country agree to this many things this quickly. I made a spreadsheet of the concessions. It had fourteen rows. I color-coded it. Green for confirmed. Yellow for pending. By February 21 the spreadsheet was entirely green. I printed it. It is on my desk in Muscat. It is still green.

That phrase took eleven days. "Never, ever." The Iranians initially offered "not seek to." The Americans wanted "will not under any circumstances." We landed on "never, ever" at 2:14 AM on a Tuesday in Muscat. I typed the final version myself. I used Times New Roman because Geneva prefers it. The document was fourteen pages. I was proud of every comma.

Here is what they said, in the order they said it.

February 24: "We have a once-in-a-generation opportunity." — The Foreign Minister, private briefing to Gulf Cooperation Council ambassadors. I prepared the slide deck. Slide 14 was the implementation timeline. Slide 15 was the signing ceremony logistics. I had reserved the Palais des Nations in Geneva, Room XX. It seats four hundred. We discussed pen brands for the signing. The Iranians preferred Montblanc. The Americans had no preference. I ordered twelve Montblanc Meisterstucks at six hundred and thirty dollars each. They arrive on Tuesday.

February 27, 8:30 AM EST: "The deal is within our reach." — The Foreign Minister, CBS Face the Nation. He sat across from Margaret Brennan. He said broad political terms could be agreed "tomorrow" with ninety days for technical implementation in Vienna. He said, and I wrote this line for the briefing card he carried in his breast pocket: "If we just allow diplomacy the space it needs." He praised the American envoys by name. Steve Witkoff. Jared Kushner. He said both had been constructive.

I watched from the Four Seasons Georgetown. The minibar had cashews. I ate the cashews. They were nineteen dollars. The most expensive cashew I have ever eaten. But it was a good morning and we were within our reach.

February 27, 2:00 PM EST: Meeting with Vice President Vance, Washington. The Foreign Minister presented our progress. Zero stockpiling. Full verification. Irreversible conversion. "Never, ever." The Vice President used the word "encouraging." His aide took notes on an iPad. The aide did not make eye contact for the last nine minutes of the meeting. I noticed this. Noticing things is the only part of my job that is not water glasses.

February 27, 4:00 PM EST: "Not happy with the pace." — President Trump, to reporters.

Not happy with the pace.

We had achieved zero stockpiling. Full IAEA verification. Irreversible fuel conversion. Inspector access. And the phrase "never, ever," which took eleven days and cost me two hundred and twelve trips down a forty-seven-meter hallway.

Every American president since Carter has failed to get Iran to agree to this. Forty-five years.

Not happy with the pace.

February 27, 9:47 PM EST: The Foreign Minister's flight departs Dulles for Muscat. I am in the seat behind him. He is reviewing Slide 14 on his laptop. The implementation timeline. Vienna technical sessions. The signing ceremony. The pens.

I fall asleep over the Atlantic. I dream about water glasses.

February 28, 6:00 AM GST: I wake up to push notifications.

February 28: "The United States has begun major combat operations in Iran." — President Trump.

Operation Epic Fury. Coordinated airstrikes. The United States and Israel. Tehran. Isfahan. Qom. Karaj. Kermanshah. Nuclear facilities. IRGC bases. Sites near the Supreme Leader's office. Israel called their half Operation Roaring Lion. Someone in both governments spent time choosing these names. Epic Fury. Roaring Lion. I spent eleven days on "never, ever." They spent it on branding. The President said Iran had "rejected American calls to halt its nuclear weapons production."

Rejected.

Iran had agreed to zero stockpiling. Iran had agreed to full verification. Iran had agreed to "never, ever." Iran had agreed to everything in a fourteen-page document that I typed in Times New Roman.

The President said they rejected it.

I do not know which document the President was reading. I know which one I typed.

February 28, 18:45 UTC: Iran internet connectivity: four percent. — NetBlocks, confirmed by Cloudflare. Ninety-six percent of a country went dark. You cannot negotiate with a country at four percent connectivity. You cannot negotiate with a country that is being struck. You cannot negotiate. This is not a political opinion. This is a logistics assessment.

February 28: The governor of Minab reported forty girls killed at an elementary school.

I do not have logistics for that. There is no slide for that. The water glass chart does not cover that.

February 28: Lockheed Martin: up. Northrop Grumman: up. RTX: up. Dow futures: down six hundred and twenty-two points. Gold: five thousand two hundred and ninety-six dollars. An analyst at AInvest published a note titled "Iran Strikes: Tactical Plays." The note recommended positions in oil, defense stocks, and gold.

The most expensive cashew I have ever eaten was nineteen dollars. The most expensive pen I have ever ordered was six hundred and thirty dollars. The math suggests I have been working in the wrong industry. Defense stocks do not require water glasses. Defense stocks do not require eleven days. Defense stocks require one morning.

February 28: Israel closed its airspace and its schools. Iran launched retaliatory missiles toward US bases in the Gulf. The Supreme Leader promised a "crushing response." Israel's defense minister declared a permanent state of emergency. Everyone is using words I recognize in an order I do not. I recognize "permanent." I recognize "emergency." I do not recognize them next to each other. In diplomacy, nothing is permanent and everything is an emergency. In war it is the reverse.

February 28: The Foreign Minister has not made a public statement.

The briefing card is still in his breast pocket. It still says "within our reach."

[NYTPitchbot @DougJBalloon]

How it started. How it's going.

[James Carter IV @JECarter4]

@NormOrnstein Come on, that's not fair. You know she sleeps in a king.

[Erin Banco @ErinBanco]

Exclusive: The CIA assessed before the strikes that even if Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in the operation, he would likely be replaced by hardline figures from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)

https://t.co/IRyEwQOMer

[James Carter IV @JECarter4]

@MarcACaputo @JoshBlockDC I obviously have no insight into what Iran wants to do with the uranium, but IF they want it for civilian purposes, it is completely rational for them to not want to rely on the US to be the only source of fuel for their energy infrastructure. That would put them under our thumb.

[James Carter IV @JECarter4]

@jdawsey1 At least he's consistent...

[Jay Bookman @jaysbookman]

Somewhere, Jared Kushner is poring over maps and satellite photos of Iranian ocean front property.

[James Carter IV @JECarter4]

And probably not even the most qualified of all the people of that age and background

[Covie @covie_93]

Probably not a good time to remind y'all that the terror prevention chief is a 22-year-old former gardener and grocery store clerk.

[James Carter IV @JECarter4]

@BenjySarlin The chances of questions like this registering in Trumps mind for even a nanosecond would be a negative percentage, if that was possible. A new theoretical math may need to be invented to calculate accurately.

[James Carter IV @JECarter4]

@jaysbookman @brianros1 I actually thought that was who he was talking about until I read the original tweet

[James Carter IV @JECarter4]

Can't help but wonder what Hegseth's Signal chat looked like for the past few days

[James Carter IV @JECarter4]

@HeerJeet True. Also, the administration dismantling all of our soft power programs has already left a vacuum to be filled.

[The Lobster @LikeableLobster]

There may have been a few miscalculations on The Lobster’s part.

[Juliette Kayyem @juliettekayyem]

Iran has the capacity to launch terror and cyber attacks against allies and US. Due to DOGE, partisan firings of FBI and cyber officials, and lack of focus or know how by AG Bondi and DHS Noem, they are ignoring this possibility completely.

[Molly Jong-Fast @MollyJongFast]

I bet those Nobel peace prize guys are feeling pretty good about themselves right now.

[Sam Stein @samstein]

Tulsi was pushing these shirts back in 2020

https://t.co/DSCHjIZGby

[NYTPitchbot @DougJBalloon]

Operation Epstein Fury is the most sophisticated military operation in the history of the United States.

by Pete Hegseth

[Glenn Thrush @GlennThrush]

Important:

If Iran and proxies expand violent or cyber terrorism — DOJ and FBI national security units have lost dozens of experienced agents & prosecutors to purges & resignations.

Pam Bondi proudly fired one respected official cos he forgot to take down Biden’s picture.