Solomon 'Dare Soyoye

ICT Enthusiast; Strategist; loves markets and has service orientation. Dare to be different. Dare to get there. Dreams come true.

[Solomon 'Dare Soyoye @jedidiahsos]

*Enjoying the crumbs that fall from the table*

*Introductionn*
I know you feel the hype and you are already catching the fever to invest in Dangote Refinery IPO.
Who will not? The buildup has been very fantastic to say the least.
Now imagine that Alhaji calls it the People’s IPO.
But is it really the people’s IPO? Is the IPO really in the interest of Nigerians? Let us dive in a little deeper

*Antecedents*
Before we even venture into the IPO and Dangote Refinery, it is important to understand that this IPO is simply an investment into Alhaji who is in his third phase.
We have witnessed Alhaji morphed from a typical Nigeria Trader into a Manufacturer and now the transformation is into the Oil Mogul.

Just a few days ago, Alhaji has indicated interest in moving beyond the Downstream sector where the Refinery sits comfortably into the Upstream sector, where he just hired 3 Oil Rigs to drill Oil in Oil Mining Leases (OMLs) 71 and 72 which has an estimated volume of over 1.6 billion barrels of oil in place, as well as approximately 1.9 trillion cubic feet of gas.

However, it is important to critique his foray in the Stock Exchange so far.

Dangote Cement: Alhaji holds 86-87% of Dangote cement stocks meaning the total shares every other person on the NSE is sharing amongst themselves is a mere 13-14% of the total. Interesting to note though that Dangote Cement listed on the Stock Exchange in 2010 at N135 and now the stock is at N1,034. Additionally he paid a dividend of N45 per share for the 2025 Financial year. Is this an upside? You be the judge.Arguably, Dangote Cement holds the lion share of the Cement Business in Nigeria with 60-65% hold on the market ahead of competitors like Bua Cement and HBM (formerly Lafarge/ WAPCO).

Dangote Sugar: Alhaji took this to the Exchange in 2006 at N18 per share and now the market price is N69. He owns 73.38% of Dangote Sugar stocks leaving 26.62% to the Public/ other shareholders.

NASCON: Was owned by Federal Government and Dangote acquired majority shares of 62.1% and is currently trading at N160.

*Crumbs*
Now, let us move to the main part.

Did you know that the Total shares being sold to the public for this IPO even though mentioned as 4,100,000,000 ordinary shares amounts to only 3.4130% of the total shares (Total issued shares = 120,128,915,901) with respect to Dangote Refinery?
Presently, Alhaji owns 87.235% and has committed that he will dilute that to 84-85%. If NNPC will end up retaining 6.815%, what will be remaining for every other person? Feel free to do the Maths.
From an operational point of view, the business is a solid one and appears to a cash cow that will spin money at least in the short and medium term. Alhaji is also intending to move processing capacity from 700,000 barrels to 1.4million barrels per day by 2029.
Also, have you checked the price of petrol today, it is rising like soaked garri which is typical of Alhaiji’s business operating model.
So, be rest assured that the business will continue to do well, which in turn means that you might continue to pay higher for petrol, Alhaji will earn more money as he moves higher on the Forbes list of the richest men on the face of the earth and you might just get an opportunity to enjoy crumbs from Alhaji’s table. Alhaji has also promised to pay everyone dividends in USD. Whether he will be able to achieve that promise is yet unknown as the regulators have kept mum on the matter.

If you need an in-depth analysis of the Prospectus, Feyi has done a great job here: https://t.co/uT19ZPcs35.
However, unlike Feyi, I will be investing in this IPO. Alhaji has also said the price might rise to N10,000 from this IPO price of N525. Do I believe him on that? Maybe not but I believe that the stock will definitely cross N1,000 per share in a very short while.

So whether your eyes are on short, medium or long term profiting, eating the crumbs falling from Alhaji’s table will not be a bad idea at all.

©Jedidiahsos

[Solomon 'Dare Soyoye @jedidiahsos]

Then my reaction:

Hmmm
This is being minor driven.
There’s a larger conversation than minors.
The simple convo is to mind the data you’re pushing out.
Models are trained to gather data and mine them.
If you don’t want your data mined, don’t supply the data.
QED

The more troubling scenario for me is because you are connected to Meta Apps such as Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp etc & Google Products such as Google Images, Google Videos, Google Drives, Gmail et al, they grant their AI models backend access to your data sets to mine without your consent/ approval or involvement.
That for me is more troubling and needs to be addressed.
No need to attempt to bury your head in the sand like an ostrich or decide to relocate to the village & start using Nokia 3310, we need to start having conversations around Responsible AI, AI Governance et al
The time to act is NOW!

[Solomon 'Dare Soyoye @jedidiahsos]

First this video

https://t.co/7pyk2MoBzG

[Solomon 'Dare Soyoye @jedidiahsos]

Let it grow before it shows

Feeling intimidated? Trust me, I know that feeling.
Feeling you gat to show off? Trust me, I have been there.
Feeling you gats show them the stuff you are made of? Surely I feel you Bro.

But hear me out on this one. Sit it out.
Sit on it and let it marinate.
Let it grow and then it will show.
Do not rush out of the oven when half baked
Do not rush out of the bathroom with lather on your backside.

Get comfortable with building in secret.
Enjoy building in private and then it will show at the right time.
Imagine you were that corn buried in the soil.
People tramping on you yet you are eager to show them,
You have potentials for a full cob of maize.
Imagine what will happen if you pulled out of the soil in that decomposing form.
Hope you know the process will die prematurely.
Yet again on the flip side, imagine you wait just a little while
Then wow everyone with the full cob or even more than a cob.

So It is when you learn to just wait it out.
Trust me, the wait is always worth it.

[Solomon 'Dare Soyoye @jedidiahsos]

The list is endless bro.
In the event your numbers are not that much or these are not even your scenario yet quite basic.
No need to panic, just reach out.

Like I said, I gat you bro!

[Solomon 'Dare Soyoye @jedidiahsos]

I hear someone say you are talking over my head. 
You are emphasising on esoteric stuffs while I am struggling with the basics. 
I need help!

No wam, I gat you bro!

As we are ruminating & strategising over the future, we can still get our hands dirty with basic stuffs.

[Solomon 'Dare Soyoye @jedidiahsos]

Just helped an organisation with the migration of thousands of virtual machines with zero data loss as well as zero downtime. Also helped another get their central management system back. Another one can confidently satisfy their disaster recovery requirements now.

[Solomon 'Dare Soyoye @jedidiahsos]

Thankfully your environment has not been exploited yet but why wait like a sitting duck?

It is time to ACT. It is time to STRATEGISE.

[Solomon 'Dare Soyoye @jedidiahsos]

Frontier AI Models/ Threats

On today's episode, the discussion will be on Frontier AI Threats.

Recall my last question: what is your Artificial Intelligence Strategy?

Now, let us dig deeper. What is your approach for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models/ Threats?

[Solomon 'Dare Soyoye @jedidiahsos]

AI has already changed the Risk Equation and the bigger issues are not only that more vulnerability are being found, it is that traditional triage, patching and containment processes will not be able to keep pace into the future.

[Solomon 'Dare Soyoye @jedidiahsos]

Homework: Using your preferred AI Tool/ Model, do a deep research requesting for all available information about your organization. Permit me to say, you might be in for a rude shock!

[Solomon 'Dare Soyoye @jedidiahsos]

Letter to IT & Security Oga’s
Dear Sir/Ma,
Trust you are doing great and hope this my message meets you well. If so, doxology.
I recall a few years ago, the buzzword in town was Cloud Transformation Strategy/ Cloud Journey and several innuendos and buzzwords were flying around.

[Solomon 'Dare Soyoye @jedidiahsos]

Band wagon effect is also not permitted.

The driver’s seat for the AI is empty in your organization. Who is going to take the wheels?

[Solomon 'Dare Soyoye @jedidiahsos]

@OpeyemiDrift Same thing happened to me and you need to see the looks on their faces after they had shouted they will impound my car.