Jed Kolko

Senior fellow @PIIE. Macro data RCM. Was Under Sec'y Econ Affairs @commercegov; chief econ @indeed @trulia. Personal account.

[Jed Kolko @JedKolko]

It's not a small world. It's just your small socio-economic stratum.

[Nathan Goldschlag @ngoldschlag]

https://t.co/r8a4isrvrZ

[Nathan Goldschlag @ngoldschlag]

ICYMI, the Commerce Dept issued a new policy banning noise infusion, a technique used by the stats agencies to prevent the release of private information.

While I agree with the goal of making data more accurate, this is NOT the way to do it. The policy will result in the exact opposite of its goal - less useful data.

This is a BFD because individuals, businesses, and policymakers rely on that data to make decisions.

[Jed Kolko @JedKolko]

@EconBerger @AdpResearch Looks like the downloadable file on ADP was corrected so there is no longer a huge dip in late March. Hopefully @stlouisfed will update this in FRED!

[Peterson Institute @PIIE]

Central banks already treat word choice as a policy instrument. The Fed devoting attention to every word in statements reflects understanding that language affects economic behavior.
AI may now make it possible to study those effects more systematically.
https://t.co/PEBF4ER67i

[Adam Aaronson @aaaronson]

Closest English word to each U.S. state name (by Levenshtein distance)

[Jed Kolko @JedKolko]

Worthwhile read. @Noahpinion rightly motivates this with AI, but also relevant for thinking about identity later in career and in retirement.

[Noah Smith 🐇🇺🇸🇺🇦🇹🇼 @Noahpinion]

A lot of people are worried about losing their identity and meaning if AI takes their jobs.

But in fact, consumption, not production, is what gives us our identity.

https://t.co/G3vKzyNyVO

[Peterson Institute @PIIE]

🌸APRIL 16: @google's Fabien Curto Millet & our @akorinek, @JedKolko, & @ChorzempaMartin unpack the current state of AI & work research & examine overlooked dimensions, including potential impact on labor supply (& not just demand).
Info & register: https://t.co/oieuhWKrxy

[Jed Kolko @JedKolko]

Delighted to have joined Rokos Capital Management this week as the Head of Macro Data Strategy.

Excited to build something new, working closely with our world-class data scientists and macroeconomists.

[Jed Kolko @JedKolko]

Let's hope BLS never stops breaking out part time for economic reasons vs part time for non-economic reasons.

[Alex Tabarrok @ATabarrok]

Imagine I told you that AI was going to create a 40% unemployment rate. Sounds catastrophic. Now imagine I told you that AI was going to create a 3-day working week. Sounds wonderful.

Yet to a first approximation these are the same thing. https://t.co/Dc8tdi6WtM

[Jeremy Horpedahl 🥚📉 @jmhorp]

@JedKolko @WSJ They also could have just used ages 55-64, a series they could have grabbed from FRED!

[Jed Kolko @JedKolko]

Beware attempts to blame AI for economic trends that aren't actually trends.

@WSJ used big drop in labor force participation for 55+ as jump-off for story about AI spurring early retirements

But:
55+ LFPR drop ENTIRELY due to aging population

🧵

[Jed Kolko @JedKolko]

Broader point:

Two demographic shifts are massive right now: aging population, and decline in immigration. These shifts account for many of the big economic trends of recent years but are often overlooked in favor of sexier explanations (hi, AI).

Don't overlook demographics!

[Jed Kolko @JedKolko]

Beware attempts to blame AI for economic trends that aren't actually trends.

@WSJ used big drop in labor force participation for 55+ as jump-off for story about AI spurring early retirements

But:
55+ LFPR drop ENTIRELY due to aging population

🧵

[Jed Kolko @JedKolko]

But demographic shifts explain the ENTIRE drop in 55+. Age-adjusted, there is no increase in early retirements that needs to be explained by AI or by anything else.

[Peterson Institute @PIIE]

🌸APRIL 9: Maurice Obstfeld moderates Global Economic Prospects. Karen Dynan presents the outlook for major economies, @JedKolko explores immigration, AI, & more in US labor market data, & Tianlei Huang discusses China's growth outlook.
Info & register: https://t.co/3y4P1ioriv

[Peterson Institute @PIIE]

🌸IT'S SPRING MEETINGS TIME!🌸
We kick things off with our semiannual Global Economic Prospects event on April 9, then join us April 14-17 for high-level panels & discussions on the euro, AI, trade, & more.
Find all event info & register to watch here: https://t.co/4huvORw15R

[Peterson Institute @PIIE]

correlation equals causation