Iran’s game explained:
Sign an agreement promising to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Keep Hezbollah attacking Israel.
Wait for Israel to respond.
Declare that Israel’s response constitutes a violation of the agreement and use it as a pretext to close the Strait again.
From Tehran’s perspective, it’s an efficient strategy.
After suffering humiliating military losses, the regime gets to project strength and claim it outmaneuvered a superpower.
It drives a wedge between Jerusalem and Washington by creating pressure on Israel to absorb attacks without responding.
It throws a lifeline to Hezbollah, one of Iran’s most important regional assets, at precisely the moment it was under sustained military pressure.
It shifts the political conversation inside Israel away from Iran’s failures and back onto Netanyahu.
And perhaps most importantly, it moves the world’s attention away from the question that mattered most a week ago: Iran’s nuclear program.