Even if the Chinese government allows the sale of TikTok US, why would ByteDance agree to sell the algorithm & operational playbook that powers a $146 billion global revenue business? Because that’s what would necessarily need to happen?!
The US market, estimated at around $12 billion for 2024, accounts for less than 10% of that revenue, and the 170 million US users are also less than 10% of total user base. Selling the algorithm (and operational playbook, may I add, which is very important) would create a competitor, potentially one that could then expand globally, then even undermining ByteDance’s business outside the US. It also sets a dangerous precedent for other markets where they operate, signaling vulnerability to political pressure.
Political pundits may overlook these implications, but business professionals should certainly understand the stakes?
TikTok US is valued at something like $30-35Bn (highest I’ve seen is $100Bn). Kevin O’Leary offered $20Bn (lol). ByteDance doesn’t need this cash, it has more cash than it knows what to do with, you think it makes sense for ByteDance to sell (sure, a copy of) its most valuable IP for cash it doesn’t need? Why?
Elon Musk agrees. On more than one occasion he’s stated that people tend to over-emphasise the risk of doing some things and underestimate the risk of not doing them. In other words, they fear errors of commission much more than errors of omission.
George Bernard Shaw, regarded mistakes positively: “a life spent making mistakes is not only more honourable, but more useful than a life spent doing nothing.”
“The most important mistakes are ones of omission – those that ... are missed opportunities, The things I needed to do ... but did not do them, will constitute my biggest mistakes in life.”
..WB distinguishes 2 kinds of mistakes: 1) errors of commission - actions which produce losses and destroy capital & thereby reduce wherewithal avail for profitable investments 2) errors of omission - decisions which produce foregone gains...