Jerry

[Rep. Sean Casten @RepCasten]

The president was convicted of falsifying business records.

Now, as his wealth surges through crypto ventures, Republicans still can’t seem to answer whether sanctioned actors are funneling money through them.

If this were a Democrat, Fox News would be running coverage and Republicans would already be demanding hearings.

The silence says everything.

[Peter Girnus 🦅 @gothburz]

I have three monitors on my desk. The left one shows the order book. The middle one shows Truth Social. The right one shows the investigation queue.

On April 21st, the left screen moved first.

I am a Senior Surveillance Analyst at a commodities exchange. I have held this position for nineteen years. My job is to monitor trading activity for suspicious patterns and generate compliance reports. I am employee of the quarter. I have a mug.

At 19:54 GMT on April 21st, someone placed 4,260 sell orders on Brent crude futures. They did this during post-settlement. The window after the market closes when daily volume is typically in the dozens. Sometimes single digits. Sometimes I watch the screen and nothing happens for forty minutes and I think about whether my daughter is happy.

On April 21st, someone placed $430 million in directional bets in 120 seconds during that window. One hundred and twenty seconds. I timed it on my watch because the system clock rounds to the nearest minute and I have found, in nineteen years, that precision matters to no one but me.

At 20:10 GMT, the President posted on Truth Social that he was extending the Iran ceasefire.

Brent dropped from $100.91 to $96.83.

I flagged the trade. I flag a lot of trades. I want to tell you what happens to my flags.

My flags go into a system called TRACE. Trade Review and Compliance Evaluation. I did not name it. The system generates a report. The report goes to a committee. The committee has a name I am not allowed to share but I can tell you it meets quarterly and the conference room has a credenza with bottled water that is sparkling because someone once put still water in the room and a managing director sent an email about it that was longer than most of my surveillance reports.

The committee reviews my flags. The committee has reviewed all of my flags. Here is the complete record of actions taken on my flags in 2026:

Reviewed.

That's it. "Reviewed" is a status. In compliance, a status is the absence of an action that has been given a name so it looks like one.

Let me show you my flags.

March 9th. Someone bet millions on oil falling at 18:29 GMT. Forty-seven minutes later, a CBS reporter posted that the President said the Iran war was "very complete, pretty much." Oil dropped 25%. Forty-seven minutes. I flagged it.

March 23rd. Someone sold 5,100 lots of Brent and WTI crude futures between 10:49 and 10:50 GMT. Fourteen minutes later, the President posted on Truth Social about a "COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION" to hostilities. Oil dropped 11%. Over 13,000 contracts traded in sixty seconds after the post. Fourteen minutes. I flagged it.

April 7th. Someone established a $950 million short position in oil futures at 19:45 GMT. Three hours later, the President declared a two-week ceasefire. Nine hundred and fifty million dollars. I flagged it.

April 17th. Someone placed $760 million in bearish bets twenty minutes before Iran's foreign minister confirmed the Strait of Hormuz would reopen. Seven hundred and sixty million. I flagged it.

April 21st. The $430 million. Fifteen minutes. I flagged it.

That is $2.1 billion in directional oil bets in April alone. Every one of them landed on the correct side of a presidential announcement. Every one of them was placed in a window so narrow you could measure it in bathroom breaks. I flagged every single one.

The CFTC chair told a Congressional committee that his organization has "zero tolerance" for fraud and insider trading. I wrote that quote on a Post-it note and stuck it to my right monitor. The one that shows the investigation queue. The investigation queue has not moved since March.

Zero tolerance. Zero staff. Zero budget. Zero prosecutions under the STOCK Act since it was signed in 2012.

Fourteen years. The law has existed for fourteen years and has been enforced zero times. In compliance, we call that a compliance rate of one hundred percent. No cases filed means no cases lost. You cannot fail an audit you never conduct. We call that excellence.

Last month the White House sent an internal email to staff. I was not on the distribution list but I have read reporting on it and I need you to sit with what I am about to say. The email instructed White House staff not to use insider information to place bets on prediction markets.

The White House had to send a memo telling its own employees not to insider-trade.

I want you to read that sentence again. Not because the instruction was unclear. Because the instruction was necessary. Because someone in the building looked at the same pattern I have been flagging for months on my three monitors and decided the appropriate response was an email.

The President's son sits on the advisory board of Kalshi. He is an investor in Polymarket. Both are prediction markets. Both saw accounts created days before U.S. military action.

One account. I cannot stop thinking about this account. It was called "Burdensome-Mix." It was created in December. On January 2nd, it placed $32,500 on Venezuela's president being removed from power. On January 3rd, Maduro was seized by U.S. special forces. Burdensome-Mix collected $436,000. Then it changed its username. Then it disappeared.

One account is a coincidence. But there were six.

Six accounts were created on Polymarket in February. All bet on U.S. strikes on Iran by the 28th. When the President confirmed the strikes, the six accounts collected $1.2 million between them. Five of the six never placed another bet. The sixth went on to correctly predict the ceasefire date and made another $163,000.

My surveillance system logged all of this. My system logs everything. My system does not have opinions and neither do I. I generate reports. The reports go to committees. The committees meet quarterly. Between meetings, the windows get shorter and the bets get larger.

March 9th: 47 minutes. March 23rd: 14 minutes. April 17th: 20 minutes. April 21st: 15 minutes.

The window is compressing. In March, you had time to make coffee between the trade and the announcement. By April, you had time to send a text. By summer, at this rate, the trade and the announcement will be the same event.

The spokesman said any implication that administration officials are engaged in insider trading is "baseless and irresponsible reporting."

Then the White House sent the email again.

I have been in compliance for nineteen years. I have seen insider trading run out of strip mall offices by men who could not spell "derivative." I have seen pump-and-dump schemes coordinated over WhatsApp by people who used their real names. I have seen a man try to manipulate soybean futures from a Panera Bread.

I have never seen $2.1 billion in perfectly timed trades across five presidential announcements in a single month go uninvestigated.

But I have also never seen a compliance system work this beautifully. Every trade flagged. Every report filed. Every committee briefed. Every quarterly meeting attended. Bottled water: sparkling. Minutes: distributed.

Zero prosecutions.

As long as the flags go up and the cases don't, my performance review says I am meeting expectations.

I am meeting expectations. The system is meeting expectations. The $2.1 billion is meeting expectations. The fourteen-year-old law with zero prosecutions is meeting expectations.

The left screen moves. The middle screen moves. The right screen stays perfectly, immaculately still.

In my field, we call this price discovery.

[Mary L Trump @MaryLTrump]

Donald says we would have won the Vietnam War if he'd been president.
Maybe he should have just served.

[Brian Krassenstein @krassenstein]

This one is so much more accurate than the original.

[Derek Thompson @DKThomp]

JPM's Michael Cembalest:

In the ~160 years after the Civil War, US presidents fired 11 four- and five-star military officers.

In Trump's first 14 months, the White House has fired 9 of them.

[Melanie D'Arrigo @DarrigoMelanie]

Republicans cut kids cancer research because they deemed it “wasteful spending.”

[Terry Moran 🇺🇸 @TerryMoran]

The chart is based on FEMA’s own data.

It shows the Trump administration approved 23% of disaster requests from Dem-led states (defined as gov + 2 Dem senators) vs. 89% for Rep-led states.

“…one nation, under God…”

Until it comes to helping Americans in a disaster.

[Peter Baker @peterbakernyt]

Fact checking fraud claims: Heritage Foundation documented 1,620 cases of voter fraud from 1982-2025, including 100 cases of noncitizens voting. That's about 0.000008% of more than 1.3 billion votes cast in presidential elections in that time. @YLindaQiu https://t.co/c07MmyhyZm

[Rep. Mike Levin @RepMikeLevin]

Trump is paying a foreign company nearly $1 BILLION of YOUR money to stop building wind farms in America that would have lowered your electricity bills.

He lost in court FIVE times trying to kill these projects that would have powered over a million homes. So he decided to buy his way out of it instead.

Yes, you heard that right. The President of the United States is literally spending your tax dollars to make your energy bills more expensive.
https://t.co/YzOhUGxcT7

[The Lincoln Project @ProjectLincoln]

This is what Republicans controlling all 3 branches of government looks like.

[Joyce Alene @JoyceWhiteVance]

Seven years ago, we learned about Bob Mueller’s conclusions. Today, there are a lot of posts on social media claiming it was a farce, or worse, a fraud. But those posts are disinformation. Here is the actual information, with links for those who want to do a deep dive. https://t.co/vvE1QYdFZr

[Democrats @TheDemocrats]

Republicans control all 3 branches of government.

Democrats introduced 7 bills to fund TSA.

Each one was blocked by Republicans.

[Dan Pfeiffer @danpfeiffer]

Barack Obama reached a deal that prevented Iran from getting a nuclear weapon.

Trump ripped up that deal.

Now we are at war with Iran to prevent it from getting a nuclear weapon.

[Steve Rattner @SteveRattner]

Trump painted a picture of an American economy flush with jobs. In reality, he brought job growth to a halt.

My @Morning_Joe Chart

[JuanFran Albert @JFranAlbert]

Porcentaje de españoles que están casados ​​y son propietarios de una vivienda a los 30 años:

1960: 52%
1970: 48%
1980: 45%
1990: 43%
2000: 35%
2010: 25%
2025: 12%

Es lo que tiene el socialismo y el exceso de regulación.

Es broma: son datos de Estados Unidos.

[Pete Buttigieg @PeteButtigieg]

Trump is actively making our goods more expensive by blocking a piece of key infrastructure - apparently all because his most Epstein-linked Cabinet Secretary conveyed a request from a billionaire GOP donor. America does not have to tolerate this kind of corruption.

[Governor Tim Walz @GovTimWalz]

Thank you to Minnesota’s local law enforcement for keeping our communities safe and getting the worst of the worst off our streets.

[🌻🦋💙Alex💙🦋🌻 @AlexButterfly01]

@LePapillonBlu2 Yup. And a sick fvck!
We’re about to have the most watched Super Bowl halftime show 💯
Benito Bad Bunny is better than Kid Rock.

[Jerry @jerryf642]

@RonFilipkowski Thank you @RepCasten !

[Ron Filipkowski @RonFilipkowski]

If you want to FINALLY watch Scott Bessent get pinned down on specifics about the illegal money laundering operation being conducted by the Trump admin from someone who knows WTF he’s talking about, this clip is your chance. Bessent gets destroyed.