Jesse Thompson

Senior Business Economist: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas - Houston Branch;

Energy, regional analysis, public speaker

[my opinions are mine alone]

[Jesse Thompson @JesseBThompson]

@Rory_Johnston who's playing the Benny Hill theme?

[Rory Johnston @Rory_Johnston]

Trump jawboning, updated for today's episode

[Jesse Thompson @JesseBThompson]

What does it mean for Texas if WTI stays high? Pipeline constraints, uncertainty, & capital discipline changes the picture.

With colleagues @LuisBernardoT12 & Robert Leigh, from @DallasFed

https://t.co/A89JHwkNRi

[Jesse Thompson @JesseBThompson]

@RepricedRisk @Rory_Johnston it's only mostly dead.

[Jesse Thompson @JesseBThompson]

@T_Mason_H Question: doesn't it math out to around 20% of all exported volumes are re-exported diluent (across all grades)?

[Jesse Thompson @JesseBThompson]

@Rory_Johnston 1) they might, and don't call me Shirley.
2) honestly, who knows at this point?
3) someone also might have realized how long it takes for tankers to go from one coast to another and back especially with the queue in Panama lengthening

[Jesse Thompson @JesseBThompson]

accompanying text here:
https://t.co/ozH8hpMHUc

[Jesse Thompson @JesseBThompson]

Been a long time since I posted on [the app formerly known as twitter]... thought I'd add some inflation adjusted context to the goings on: inflation adjusted monthly brent, hh,ttf

[Jesse Thompson @JesseBThompson]

@JavierBlas @opinion @CERAWeek Much like the green hydrogen economy, was the dream of NetZero by 2050 ever *really* alive?

[Jesse Thompson @JesseBThompson]

@JavierBlas Ok. that one made me laugh.

[Jesse Thompson @JesseBThompson]

@T_Mason_H This is already a very important point.
Over the next 10 years, the importance (and nuance within this) will become much *MORE* important. Chemistry matters y'all.

[Jesse Thompson @JesseBThompson]

@Rory_Johnston *but it's also not significantly worse for forecasting Brent or WTI than any other method.

[Jesse Thompson @JesseBThompson]

@Rory_Johnston Waiting for barrels on water to drop a bit more before hitting the SPR release button as logistics are snarled up as it is?

[Jesse Thompson @JesseBThompson]

@Rory_Johnston Waiting for the reservoir risk estimates to start flipping the market out.

[Jesse Thompson @JesseBThompson]

@Rory_Johnston *it's duration dependent, and expected-duration dependent. The announcements by Iraq and Kuwait about shut ins make it real.....

[Jesse Thompson @JesseBThompson]

@T_Mason_H and just like that, a burst of humanity asked, "wait, what's suezmax mean?"

[Jesse Thompson @JesseBThompson]

@JavierBlas I always think of implied inventory change outlooks as another tool on which to hang an argument for whether risk is skewed to the upside or downside on the strip. It's not a forecast. +, the surge in floating oil and Chinese SPR is adding caveats.

[Jesse Thompson @JesseBThompson]

This point isn't being translated in much of the discourse on VZ: none of the refineries that were flavored for VZ crude's chemistry shut down when the flows cut off. They substituted to other varieties.

[Mason Hamilton🛢📊⛽️ @T_Mason_H]

U.S. refiners have largely phased out the use of Venezuelan crude oil.

Many U.S. refiners on the U.S. Gulf Coast (PADD 3) were designed to process medium and heavy grades of crude oil, such as those produced in Canada, Mexico, and Venezuela. Years of changes in both Venezuela and North America have led to a significant decline in the amount of Venezuelan crude oil that U.S. refiners process.

[Jesse Thompson @JesseBThompson]

@ED_Analytics Been saying this for years: nearly every extra hydrocarbon molecule produced per day the past 5 years MUST flow to exports. There's no where near enough demand here. There's not going to be enough demand here. Period.

*Export it, or shut it in* those are the options.

[Jesse Thompson @JesseBThompson]

@MPelletierCIO now adjust for inflation since the pandemic. Depending on the deflator chosen, WTI was around $45-52 (2018$) in December and January 2025.