Jim T

[Ed Piotrowski @EdPiotrowski]

TROPICAL UPDATE
12:30 PM FRIDAY 9/18/2026

✅ BOTTOM LINE: No tropical threats to the Carolinas over the next 7–10 days.

🟢 DISTURBANCE #1: The area of low pressure I’ve been tracking east of Bermuda never got its act together, and the chances of development are now near zero thanks to dry air and strong wind shear. The system will continue moving away from both Bermuda and the U.S.

🟠 DISTURBANCE #2: A small but well-defined area of low pressure southwest of the Azores in the northeast Atlantic (about 2,400 miles from the Carolinas) only needs a little more organization to become a tropical depression. That could happen later today if current trends continue. It could eventually become a tropical storm, but there are currently no indications it will strengthen into a hurricane. The next named storm would be Fay. Regardless of development, this system poses no threat to land as it moves southwest before eventually being absorbed by a front sometime over the next week.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic, El Niño-enhanced wind shear continues to slam the door on tropical development, and it doesn’t look like that door is opening anytime soon.

September is normally prime time in the tropics, but so far the Atlantic has hit the snooze button.

If we somehow make it through the entire month without a hurricane, that would be a September to remember!

[Jim T @jethomas232]

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[Jim T @jethomas232]

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[Jim T @jethomas232]

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[Jim T @jethomas232]

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[Jim T @jethomas232]

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[Jim T @jethomas232]

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