Jon Fenton-Harvey

GCC, Horn of Africa, West Asia.
In @CarnegieEndow @The_newArab @wpreview @gulfintlforum @rstatecraft @rsasianaffairs @bbcworld @Aljazeera & more.

[Jon Fenton-Harvey @jfentonharvey]

"Often seen as “punching above its weight,” the UAE’s investments and diplomatic inroads have significantly bolstered its position in East Africa, while helping it gain leverage over regional actors" - in my latest for
@WPReview

https://t.co/8ZfpSzvGcu

[Cameron Hudson @_hudsonc]

Some thoughts from me on what Sudan's truces havent materialized: “I think that there is one approach the US has not tried since the beginning of this war, which is providing incentives and motives for peace. The US used only pressures: Pressures through sanctions, and also accusations of using chemical weapons, and even pressure by ignoring both parties and not travelling to Sudan, and not inviting Sudanese officials to participate in international conferences,” Hudson told Al Jazeera.

“The issue of accumulating pressures one after another has not succeeded and has not worked, and therefore the US should acknowledge that this approach has not succeeded. And until their position is revealed with the end of the war, I do not think that either of the fighting parties will proceed to stop the fighting.” https://t.co/D6ExSn4CAH

[Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb]

The UAE seems to be suicidal

[Liam Karr @liam_karr]

Most recent US strikes in northern Somalia have targeted IS Somalia, which is more prominent in northern Somalia.

However, al Shabaab support networks in northern Somalia are vital for facilitating links with the Houthis and for general financing and weapons smuggling.

Like in NW Nigeria and its operations against IS Somalia, AFRICOM is focusing on degrading connectivity, which I think is an efficient use of the limited resources they have.

[Jon Fenton-Harvey @jfentonharvey]

Washington’s New Somalia Strategy Sacrifices Stability for Shipping Lanes https://t.co/25kaOhKzgc

[World Politics Review @WPReview]

The U.S. is engaging directly with Somali states while reducing support for the country’s broader security framework, risking further fragmentation, @jfentonharvey writes.
https://t.co/JZHR1QV1jR

[Cameron Hudson @_hudsonc]

A good look at Washington’s stepped up approach to CT across Somalia and why its strategy only accelerate Somalia’s further factionalization. https://t.co/ynFCzC6TwI

[Cameron Hudson @_hudsonc]

A good look at why US recognition of Somaliland appears unlikely in the near-term. All points I’ve been making for months. https://t.co/hj0mRLfdBl

[Jon Fenton-Harvey @jfentonharvey]

Washington’s New Somalia Strategy Sacrifices Stability for Shipping Lanes https://t.co/25kaOhKzgc

[World Politics Review @WPReview]

The U.S. is expanding its military presence in Puntland, a semiautonomous state in northern Somalia, while preparing to cut support for the African Union force that underpins the country’s national security, @jfentonharvey writes.
https://t.co/JZHR1QV1jR

[Responsible Statecraft @RStatecraft]

"As long as the war continues, there is little hope of stopping this burgeoning banditry on the high seas."

https://t.co/EAsbLhwYSD

[Mehdi Hasan @mehdirhasan]

Israel’s first prime minister David Ben-Gurion was a not a practising or theistic Jew and admitted to eating ham sandwiches.

Zionism was built by very secular and often atheist Jews: ‘I am completely irreligious,’ wrote Herzl in his diary.

[Cameron Hudson @_hudsonc]

There is a fine line between keeping your diplomatic options open and losing all credibility and he has just crossed it. Given the overwhelming evidence linking the UAE to supplying the RSF since the start of the war, these feeble excuses and attempts at misdirection only demonstrate that the US is fully captured by UAE. Better to have said nothing than to attempt to defend or deny UAE actions. And thus ends Washington's ability to play any sort of mediating role in this conflict.

[Alex Wickham @alexwickham]

Exclusive: British diplomats have privately told the US that the new sanctions Ed Miliband is imposing on Israeli settlements today are largely symbolic and will have no material impact on the UK’s wider relationship with Israel on trade or security

A behind-closed-doors diplomatic effort is underway to soothe the Trump administration’s response, amid fears that the sanctions could provide the first major setback in US relations for Andy Burnham, people familiar with the matter said

Burnham spoke to Trump by phone on Monday afternoon and told him what was coming

The reality that Britain’s relationship with Israel will largely continue as is, despite stronger rhetoric from ministers about a fundamental reset, may disappoint some on the left who the announcement is designed to win over

Bloomberg’s @EllenAMilligan @AlbertoNardelli scooped that Miliband was preparing new sanctions on Israel last month. They reported that proposals under consideration included measures to prevent the exchange of goods and services with Israeli settlements

Miliband has also looked at expanding existing human rights sanctions to cover the obstruction of aid, which has been blamed for exacerbating the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. The foreign secretary has also been looking at explicitly endorsing the International Court of Justice’s non-binding 2024 opinion that Israel’s occupation of territory that Britain now recognises as the state of Palestine is unlawful

Still, at the time British officials acknowledged that any new actions might have limited impact. Traders can re-label goods to evade sanctions and the UK has long maintained that Israeli settlements in the West Bank are illegal

https://t.co/6EHPCKoMUA

[Jon Fenton-Harvey @jfentonharvey]

From the Nile to the Red Sea, can Egypt and Ethiopia ever agree? https://t.co/oNHtoUgLbc

[Jon Fenton-Harvey @jfentonharvey]

From the Nile to the Red Sea, can Egypt and Ethiopia ever agree? https://t.co/oNHtoUgLbc

[Cameron Hudson @_hudsonc]

The clearest explanaition yet of why the Sudan Panel of Experts report has not yet been made public. Unsurprisingly, it is related to UAE's effort to redact specific evidence documenting their support to the RSF. https://t.co/uTgZhtEf5Y

[Mark Seddon @MarkSeddon1962]

So some illegal occupations are entirely acceptable are they?

[Tom Fletcher @UNReliefChief]

Excellency, I’m (again) avoiding undignified clickbait exchange. We reduced hunger from levels I spoke of last year because President Trump’s plan and support from region, US, Europe helped us get in 1m+ meals a day. I fully back @UNICEF. We won’t be distracted from saving lives.

[Dr Andreas Krieg @andreas_krieg]

"The American Middle East is finished. The regional order that has prevailed since 1991 has been one of the many casualties of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. The American and Israeli failure to dislodge the regime in Tehran has proved the bankruptcy of decades of sanctions and violence. The inability of the United States to protect its Gulf allies from Iranian attacks or to keep the Strait of Hormuz open has fatally undermined the core security bargain that justified its network of military bases in the region"
https://t.co/P5nr6wqKL0

[Jon Fenton-Harvey @jfentonharvey]

How violence in Zawiya exposes the limits of Libya's unity push - my latest for @The_NewArab https://t.co/xudR8Jnqs2