@jeff

I want to be respected, not liked.

[@jeff @jfrnrd]

i / you don't have the answers.

do it alone, do it with nothing, do it exhausted, do it afraid, do it confused. what ever you do — just do it.

[@jeff @jfrnrd]

@vahidf24 @kas__vegas @dunkhippo33 @ericbahn @ChrisSmithPF @alexiskold If he’s not willing to answer to you now, he won’t for others. I wouldn’t recommend him to anyone and I heard horrible things about him.

[Ricardo @Ric_RTP]

Mark Zuckerberg is bankrupting a $22 billion startup because they refused to sell to him.

The company is Kalshi.

They run the largest prediction market in the US. Users bet real money on real-world outcomes.

Last year, prediction markets did $28 billion in monthly volume across the industry.

This month, they did $220 BILLION.

The sector literally 8x'd in a single year.

Bernstein now projects the entire prediction market industry will hit $1 TRILLION by 2030.

Zuckerberg saw the growth curve coming. Last year, when Kalshi was valued at only $2 billion, he sat down with founder and CEO Tarek Mansour to discuss buying the entire company.

Mansour said no.

Kalshi went on to raise at $11 billion in December. Then $22 billion in March. It is now pursuing a $40 billion round and openly weighing an IPO.

Zuckerberg's response:

He walked back to Meta headquarters, took every piece of information he learned in that meeting, and directed a small internal team to build a Kalshi clone from the ground up.

Meta's version is called Arena. It uses Llama to generate the questions. Every one of Meta's 3.5 billion daily users will get access.

And here's where the plan gets ruthless...

Meta is deliberately launching with play money. That single decision lets Zuckerberg dodge every gambling regulator on Earth while he trains billions of users to bet on prediction markets.

Meanwhile Kalshi is spending millions fighting state gambling laws, the CFTC, an Illinois sports tax, a Minnesota felony statute, and the Department of Justice.

Kalshi is the crash test dummy. Meta is the getaway driver.

The moment the regulatory war is settled, Zuckerberg flips the switch. Arena becomes a real-money market, and 3.5 billion users are already trained to use it. Kalshi's user base of a few million cannot compete.

This is the exact playbook Meta ran on Snapchat in 2016 when Instagram Stories launched. It is the exact playbook they ran on TikTok in 2020 when Reels launched. It is the exact playbook they ran on Twitter in 2023 when Threads launched.

The FTC took Meta to court over this pattern last year and called it "buy or bury." The judge sided with Meta. So the playbook is legally protected.

Tarek Mansour walked into a meeting with the most predatory copycat in tech history and gave him the entire pitch deck for the fastest growing product in Silicon Valley.

Six months later, Zuckerberg is executing on that intel while Mansour is stuck defending his company in courts across America.

Kalshi survived Zuckerberg's offer. But it probably will not survive Zuckerberg's clone.

Meta ended Q1 with $81 billion in cash. That is enough to buy every prediction market company on Earth six times over. Zuckerberg is choosing to STEAL them instead because he can, and because the courts already gave him permission.

The next 12 months will decide whether Kalshi becomes a $50 billion IPO or a cautionary tale about what happens when a founder says no to Meta.

What do you think?

[@jeff @jfrnrd]

@kseniam0s This is just not true. Anyone that states this is inexperienced or not in VC.

VCs fund people with connections and track record.

[@jeff @jfrnrd]

@Mat_Sherman Until you can provide examples or data, this is just not true.

[@jeff @jfrnrd]

In general this doesn’t matter. If you have connections this is all just talk. No one cares about age in VC unless you’re in an industry where experience and age need to be a requirement.

Investors back people who are young or old with connections. They don’t fund nobody with no track records.

[@jeff @jfrnrd]

interesting.

[@jeff @jfrnrd]

@kick_clips even if he ends up doing it for one day, it's still a good reminder and habit to consistently practice eating healthy.

[@jeff @jfrnrd]

listen…

[@jeff @jfrnrd]

@Basbas120773 @veizau thanks for the clarification, i dont know who this is, but its giving me those vibes.

[@jeff @jfrnrd]

@RileNFTs i meant the hiring “everyone” part.

i’m pretty sure you’d need to filter people, right?

[@jeff @jfrnrd]

@evanbuhler Thanks! :)

[@jeff @jfrnrd]

@evanbuhler @evanbuhler

[@jeff @jfrnrd]

@christophersaum these investors reply QUICK as hell with email.

[@jeff @jfrnrd]

@brian_armstrong this is true, but i'd rather be the keanu reeves of crypto

just be that guy everyday when you can.

[@jeff @jfrnrd]

@TTrimoreau you can build both, but audience is always first because they eventually will be the ones trying or buying the product.

[@jeff @jfrnrd]

it is tremendously hard to take advice from anyone not operating or struggling in your shoes

[@jeff @jfrnrd]

@ivanburazin yeah, but this is because you have connections or you’re in a funded company. none of the following information will matter if you already had the upper hand