🚨 ÇOK TUHAF BİR ŞEY OLUYOR
Bitcoin 64.000 dolardan 79.000 dolara fırladı.
Şimdi herkes boğa piyasasının geri döndüğünü düşünüyor.
Ancak bu hareketi tetikleyen şeyin ne olduğunu neredeyse kimse anlamıyor.
Her şey ABD Hazine tahvillerinde başladı.
Hazine, uzun vadeli tahvil geri alımlarının maksimum boyutunu İKİ KATINA çıkardı:
2 milyar dolar → işlem başına en az 4 milyar dolar.
Uzun vadeli getiriler anında düştü.
Ardından Bitcoin hareket etti:
65.400 dolar → 69.500 dolar
Hemen hemen anında 4.000 dolardan fazla yükseldi.
Sonra Trump kripto parayı tekrar gündeme getirdi.
Stratejik Bitcoin Rezervi tekrar konuşulmaya başlandı.
Bitcoin hareket etmeye devam etti:
69.500 dolar → 79.000 dolar
Ve o zamana kadar kısa pozisyon sıkışması geri kalanını hallediyordu.
Kaldıraçlı kısa pozisyonlar yok oluyordu.
Zorunlu alımlar BTC'yi daha da yukarı taşıdı.
Sadece 48 saatte 4 MİLYAR DOLAR tasfiye edildi.
Yani zincirleme reaksiyon basitti:
HAZİNE GERİ ALIMLARINI GENİŞLETİYOR
↓
GETİRİLER DÜŞÜYOR
↓
TRUMP KRİPTO HOPIUM'U CANLANDIRIYOR
↓
BITCOIN YÜKSELİYOR
↓
KISA POZİSYONLAR TASFİYE EDİLİYOR
↓ ZORUNLU ALIMLAR BTC'Yİ 79.000 DOLARA TAŞIYOR
Ama herkesin gözden kaçırdığı şey şu:
Bu, QE DEĞİL.
Fed para basma makinesini tekrar çalıştırmadı.
Ve herkes yükselişi kutlarken, Fed tam tersi yönde hareket ediyor.
Son FOMC tutanakları, Eylül ayında bir FAİZ ARTIŞININ hala masada olduğunu gösterdi.
Bu, temiz bir Bitcoin boğa koşusunun başlangıcında beklediğim makro kurulum değil.
Ve bu tuzağı daha önce de gördük.
Ağustos 2022:
Bitcoin aniden yükseldi.
Herkes ayı piyasasının bittiğini düşünüyordu.
Sonra boğa tuzağı başarısız oldu ve BTC tekrar çöktü.
Yılın aynı zamanı.
Aynı heyecan.
Dip noktasının çoktan görüldüğüne dair aynı inanç.
Ve makroekonomik durum şimdi daha da kötü.
Savaş riski hala çözülmedi. Petrol yüksek seviyelerde kalmaya devam ediyor.
Enerji şoku geçmedi.
Şimdi her şeyden daha önemli bir seviye var:
83.000-85.000 dolar.
Bu seviyeye ulaşmak hiçbir şey ifade etmiyor.
Bu seviyeyi korumak önemli.
Bitcoin 83.000-85.000 dolara ulaşır ve reddedilirse, boğa tuzağı bozulmadan kalır.
Eğer bu seviyenin üzerine çıkar ve gerçekten tutunursa, yapı değişir.
Bu gerçekleşene kadar:
PLANIM DEĞİŞMEDİ.
Hatırlatma: Son 15 yıldır piyasanın tüm zirve ve dip noktalarını tahmin ettim, Bitcoin'in 16.000 dolardaki dip noktası ve 126.000 dolardaki zirve noktası da dahil.
Bir sonraki tahmin daha da önemli olacak. Her zaman yaptığım gibi burada herkese açık olarak paylaşacağım.
Bildirimleri açın. Henüz takip etmiyorsanız, bunun neden bir hata olduğunu daha sonra anlayacaksınız.
2- Arka Plan Uygulama Güncellemeleri.
Bu özellik kullanışlı değil ama varsayılan olarak açık.
Ayarlar → Genel → Arka Plan Uygulaması
Güncellemeler → Kapatın
Buradaki asıl nokta şu ki, telefonunuzdaki her uygulama, siz onu açmasanız bile "kendini güncelliyor".
Instagram videoyu indiriyor, Shopee fiyatları güncelliyor.
Neden diye soruyorsunuz? Uygulamayı yine de manuel olarak açabilirsiniz.
SOLANA: BUY SIGNAL
A new buy signal has emerged for Solana. But one massive resistance zone stands between the current price and a potential rally to $100–$127.
Here’s the level that could decide the next major move for $SOL.
1/7 🧵👇
Grayscale just told institutions exactly which tokens to buy in 2026.
They also told them which ones to ignore completely.
The difference between those two lists will determine more portfolio outcomes this year than any price chart.
Here is the full breakdown.
The macro case first.
Fifteen years ago crypto was one asset with a $1 million market cap.
Today it is a $3 trillion asset class sitting at the intersection of the two most powerful forces in global finance simultaneously.
Fiat currency debasement and regulatory clarity.
US federal debt as a share of GDP is on a trajectory that makes low inflation increasingly difficult to credibly promise.
Every time that debt problem gets worse, the case for scarce, programmatic, government-resistant money gets stronger.
Bitcoin's 20 millionth coin was mined in March 2026.
The supply schedule is transparent, predictable, and entirely immune to political pressure.
That combination is increasingly valuable in a world where the alternative is not.
The four-year cycle is over.
This is the most important structural shift Grayscale is making in the report.
In every prior bull market Bitcoin's price increased by at least 1,000 percent over a one-year period.
This cycle the maximum year-over-year gain was approximately 240 percent.
That is not a disappointment.
That is a structural change in who is buying.
Retail momentum chasing has been replaced by steady institutional accumulation through ETPs.
Since Bitcoin spot ETPs launched in January 2024, global crypto ETPs have seen net inflows of $87 billion.
Harvard Management Company and Mubadala, one of Abu Dhabi's sovereign wealth funds, have already allocated.
Less than 0.5 percent of US advised wealth is currently in crypto.
That number is going to grow significantly as more platforms complete their due diligence and build crypto into model portfolios.
The institutional era does not produce 1,000 percent moonshots.
It produces sustained, structurally supported appreciation driven by capital that does not panic sell.
The 10 themes institutions are positioning around right now.
1. Dollar debasement.
Bitcoin and Ether as scarce digital commodities. The macro imbalance driving this demand is not going away. Relevant assets: BTC, ETH.
2. Regulatory clarity.
The GENIUS Act passed in 2025. The CLARITY Act is advancing in 2026. Every major regulatory barrier that kept institutional capital on the sidelines is being systematically removed. Relevant assets: almost everything with a clear use case.
3. Stablecoins.
Outstanding supply hit $300 billion. Monthly transaction volume averaged $1.1 trillion. Cross-border payments, corporate balance sheets, derivatives collateral. The plumbing of global finance is moving on-chain. Relevant assets: ETH, SOL, TRX, BNB, LINK.
4. Asset tokenization.
Currently 0.01 percent of global equity and bond market capitalisation. Grayscale expects 1,000 times growth by 2030. The infrastructure layer capturing this is being built right now. Relevant assets: LINK, ETH, SOL, AVAX.
5. Privacy.
Public blockchains are transparent by default. As blockchain goes mainstream, privacy infrastructure becomes critical. Every bank, every institution, every individual has an expectation that their financial activity is not visible on a public ledger. Relevant assets: ZEC, AZTEC, RAIL.
6. AI centralisation calls for blockchain solutions.
This is the theme that directly connects to your portfolio.
Grayscale's exact words: AI systems are centralising around a few dominant firms, creating concerns about trust, bias, and ownership. Crypto offers primitives that directly address these risks.
Decentralised AI development platforms like Bittensor aim to reduce reliance on centralised AI technologies.
$TAO is named explicitly as the relevant asset.
The US government just shut down the most powerful centralised AI model in the world in a single letter.
That event is not a footnote to this theme.
It is the most powerful real-world proof of concept the decentralised AI thesis has ever had.
Relevant assets: TAO, IP, NEAR, WORLD.
7. DeFi accelerates, led by lending.
Hyperliquid consistently sees open interest and daily volumes rivalling the largest centralised derivatives exchanges.
Aave, Morpho, and Maple are leading the on-chain lending expansion. Relevant assets: AAVE, HYPE, UNI, MAPLE, LINK.
8. Next-generation infrastructure.
Sui, Monad, MegaETH, and Near are pushing transaction speeds and costs to levels that make AI micropayments, real-time gaming, and high-frequency on-chain trading viable at scale.
Sui processes transactions in under one second at $0.008 cost. Relevant assets: SUI, MON, NEAR.
9. Sustainable revenue.
Transaction fees are the single most valuable fundamental indicator, according to Grayscale.
They are hardest to manipulate and most comparable across blockchains.
Institutions are going to allocate to the tokens generating real, measurable revenue and ignore the ones that cannot demonstrate it. Relevant assets:
SOL, ETH, BNB, HYPE, TRX.
10. Staking by default.
The SEC clarified that liquid staking is not a security.
The IRS confirmed that ETPs can stake. Staking is now the default structure for holding Proof of Stake tokens through institutional vehicles.
Relevant assets: LDO, JTO.
The two red herrings most people are wasting time on.
Quantum computing is not a 2026 risk.
Expert consensus puts a quantum computer capable of breaking Bitcoin's cryptography at 2030 at the earliest.
Research will accelerate, but prices will not move on this.
Digital asset treasuries are not a new demand source. DAT premiums have compressed to near 1x NAV.
Most are not levered enough to be forced sellers.
They are permanent features of the landscape but not a swing factor in either direction.
If you are spending energy on either of these narratives in 2026 you are being distracted from the actual signals.
The most important sentence in the entire report.
Grayscale saved it for the final paragraph.
Crypto is entering a new era and not every token will make a successful transition from the old one.
Read that again.
The institutional era raises barriers to entry for mainstream success.
Crypto projects will need to meet registration and disclosure requirements to access regulated exchanges.
Institutional investors will ignore tokens without a clear use case regardless of their market cap.
The gap between assets with access to regulated venues and institutional capital, and those without it, is going to widen significantly throughout 2026.
This is not a prediction about a distant future.
It is already happening.
The tokens that survive the transition are the ones with real use cases, sustainable revenue, regulatory access, and infrastructure that institutions can model and allocate to with confidence.
Everything else is on the wrong list.
The people who understood which list their portfolio was on before the institutional capital finished rotating will not need to explain their positioning later.
This is still early.
My bull thesis 🐂
$SOL - network's running harder than it did at $294 (Firedancer, Alpenglow). Does ~97% of all on-chain tokenized-stock volume. SIMD-0550 will fix inflation
$HYPE - token that prints money. Dominant perp DEX, fees buy back HYPE, only ~27% of supply circulating. A flywheel that keeps compounding
$ONDO - cleanest pure-play on RWA. Largest issuer on Solana by asset count (200+ assets), with SEC + EU licenses in hand
$JUP - Solana's everything super-app. If Solana wins, Jupiter wins. Undervalued bet at $0.2 with great upside
$JTO - staking + MEV, and now JTX: a self-custody trading app with CEX-level execution that routes fees into JTO buybacks, launching soon
$BP - bet on Backpack becoming the regulated bridge between Wall Street and Solana. $BP staking = equity in the future
$ARX - the confidential-compute layer Solana lacks: basically most of privacy products we have on Solana are built on top of Arcium, and more coming
What are your bets? 🤔
Circle Leads the Tokenized Treasury Market
With $3.1B in its $USYC tokenized product, @circle is now the #1 platform for tokenized U.S. Treasuries.
My bet is simple → Tokenization is about to go 100x from here → $CRCL, as a leader, will capture more of this uptrend.
Tokenize Everything.
#SOL analysis:
$SOL continues to decline and cannot maintain the $150 level. The #price is gradually approaching the major support area where you can consider opening long positions.
Major #Support Area: $120-$126
#Resistance Area: $155-$160