Jeff Hill

Follower of Christ. Enjoys Theology, Firearms, and Current Events

[Popular Polemics @Poppolemics]

But where the Scripture has no tongue to speak, we must have no ear to hear; and therefore we shall not undertake to determine what the Scripture has not determined- Christopher Love in Grace

[Jeff Hill @jhill3456]

This is a sane take if you are interested.

[Cem GÜRDENİZ @cemgurdeniznet]

İran–İsrail & ABD savaşında 3. gün (2 Mart 2026) değerlendirmem aşağıdaki gibidir.
1.ABD ve İsrail harekâta başlarken temel varsayımları İran’ın çok hızlı çökeceği yönündeydi. Dini lider Hamaney dahil üst düzey 48 ismin etkisiz hale getirilmesinden sonra Tahran’ın diplomasi masasına zayıf ve teslimiyetçi bir pozisyonda döneceğini ve savaşın ilk kafa kesici şoklar nedeni ile uzamadan yeni bir safhaya geçeceğini hesapladılar. Kısacası ABD ve İsrail stratejistleri Maduro&Colani sentezi bir harekât planladı. Ancak plan tutmadı. Şii siyasal kültürü bağlamında en büyük ruhani lideri öldürerek “şehadet” algısını tetiklediler ve toplumsal kenetlenmeyi sağladılar. Bu durum, planlanan iç ayaklanma senaryosunun tersine döndüğüne işaret etmektedir. İran önceden planlanmış bir komuta devamlılığı mekanizmasını devreye soktu. Kaybedilen komutanların yerine belirlenmiş isimler hızla atandı ve devlet işleyişi kesintiye uğramadı. İran aynı anda hem dışişleri Bakanı Aragçı üzerinden diplomasi yürütürken hem de devrim muhafızları üzerinden savaşa devam ediyor.
3. Harekâtın 28 Şubat 2026 Cumartesi sabahı başlatılması kısa süreli kafa koparma sonrası ayaklanma senaryosunun parçasıydı. Küresel piyasalar kapalıyken ilk askeri sonuçların alınması, pazartesi açılışta İran’ın askeri ve siyasi olarak geri adım atmış olması ve enerji piyasalarının ABD-İsrail lehine güçlü bir fiyatlamayla açılması bekleniyordu. Ancak bu beklenti gerçekleşmedi. 2 Mart sabahı Asya piyasaları daha sonra da batı piyasaları güne çok kötü başladılar.
4. İlk 48 saat içinde Körfezdeki ABD üslerine yönelik altı dalga halinde saldırılarda 27 Amerikan tesisi hedef alındı. Dubai Havalimanının kapanması, bölgedeki uçuşların iptal edilmesi, finans kapital ağalarının bile bölgeyi terk edememesi krizi daha da büyütüyor. En önemlisi ABD güvenlik kubbesi bu devletler için her yönden çatırdamış durumda. Finans kapitalin evlatlıkları, sağladıkları üsler ve kolaylıklar ile ABD'nin koruma kalkanı altındaki GCC (Suudi Arabistan, Katar, Kuveyt, Bahreyn, BAE, Umman) Arap monarşileri ABD için coğrafi enstrüman ve istihbarat toplama merkezi olduklarını ve İsrail güvenliği için kendilerinin kumar masasına sürüldüğünü ilk kez bu kadar açık şekilde yaşıyor. Kuveyt'in 2 Mart günü hata sonucu 3 Amerikan F 15 uçağını düşürmesi bölgedeki hava savunma komuta kontrol ve koordinasyonunun içinde bulunduğu karmaşayı ortaya koymaktadır. Diğer bir deyişle körfez savunma mimarisi parçalı ve hava resmi tam entegre değil sonucu ortaya çıkar.

5. Körfez’de ilk kez Palau bandıralı “Skylight” adlı bir tankerin 1 Mart'ta batırılması ve USS A. Lincoln uçak gemisine yönelik başarısız saldırı girişimi psikolojik eşik anlamında önemliydi. Saldırı sonrası uçak gemisi daha güvenli sulara, güneye sevk edildi. Sky Light sonrası 4 gemi daha battı. 1980’lerdeki Tanker Savaşları’nı hatırlatan biçimde gemi sigorta primleri hızla yükseldi. Resmî bir kapanma ilanı olmamasına rağmen Hürmüz Boğazı’nda fiili bir “operasyonel dur-kalk” dönemi başladı. 2 Mart itibarıyla gemi takip verileri ve piyasa kaynakları, Hürmüz çıkışında çok sayıda tanker ve LNG gemisinin beklemede olduğunu göstermektedir. Körfezden Asya başta olmak üzere küresel varış noktalarına ham petrol akışı ciddi bir kesintiye uğramış durumda. Katar’dan Avrupa’ya yönelen LNG akışı da normal hızında değil. Diğer yandan Avrupa’nın en büyük 2 konteyner operatörü Hapag Lloyd ve MSC körfez operasyonlarını durdurdu.Fiziksel arz krizinden önce fiyat krizi gelir. Petrol ve türevleri ile pek çok tüketim maddesinin fiyat aratışları her yerde beklenmelidir. Jeopolitik risk hattı Bab el-Mendeb Boğazı için de geçerlidir. Önümüzdeki günlerde Husilerin batıracağı herhangi bir gemi Kızıldeniz hattında ciddi aksamalar yaratacaktır. Kısacası Enerji cephesi savaşın en kırılgan alanıdır. Körfez ülkelerinin altyapısı ve enerji üretim tesislerinin hedef alınması çatışmayı küresel sonuçları olacak ekonomik eşik noktasına taşımaktadır. Örneğin Suudi Arabistan’da ARAMCO’nun dev Ras Tanura terminal limanının hasar alması İran’ın şu ana kadar ki en ciddi meydan okumasıdır.
6. ABD ve İsrail hem saldırı hem de savunma amaçlı pahalı ve hassas silahlarını hızla tüketiyor. Savaş uzadıkça durum kritikleşiyor. ABD’nin önde gelen neoconlarından Yunan asıllı E. Oramiral Stavridis’in 1 Mart günü yayınladığı ve sonra ikaz üzerine kaldırdığı X mesajı her şeyi özetliyor: ‘’ABD ve İsrail JDAM’lerden Tomahawk ve Patriot’lara kadar yüzlerce hassas güdümlü mühimmatı harcarken artık lojistiğe odaklanmanın zamanı geldi. Stoklar ne kadar derin? Savaşta gerçek profesyoneller nihayetinde lojistikçilerdir.”
7.ABD iç siyaseti açısından da risk büyüktür. Kısa ve sınırlı bir operasyon beklentisi uzayan bir yıpratma savaşına dönüşürse, Washington’da ciddi siyasi sonuçlar doğabilir ve başkanlık makamı açısından maliyet artabilir. Trump 1 Mart günü Mar A Lago’da başkente dönüşte ilk kez gazetecilere selam bile vermeden ve konuşma yapmadan aracına geçti. Amerikan kamuoyu Trump'ın Epstein dosyalarının gölgesinde İsrail çıkarları için önümüzdeki günlerde daha çok Amerikan askerinin ölmesini beklemesini söylemesinden rahatsız.
8. ABD ve İsrail İran’da şüphesiz halkın ayaklanma safhası başladığında ucuz kan olarak İran Kürtlerini kullanacaktır. Rejimin devrilmesini ve Kürtlerin özerk bir yönetim kurmasını hedefleyen Irak’ta konuşlu İran Kürdistanı Siyasi Güçler Koalisyonunun ABD müdahalesinin rejimi zayıflatması halinde harekete geçmeye hazır olduklarını belirtmesi ve bu grup içinde PKK/PYD uzantılarının (PJAK) varlığı Ankara’nın öncelik güvenlik endişesi olmalı ve İran yönetimi ile her türlü iş birliği sağlanmalıdır. Suriye’de yapılan hata burada tekrar edilmemelidir. Tekrar hatırlatalım. İsrail uçakları İran’a Suriye hava sahasından saldırıyor.
9.Özetle üçüncü gün itibarıyla genel tablo şudur: İlk taktik sürprize rağmen İran rejimi çözülmemiş, halk ayaklanma yerine akisne kenetlenmiş, komuta yapısı devam etmiş ve karşılık verme kapasitesi korunmuştur. Rejim değişikliğini hedefleyen operasyon askeri bir çatışmanın ötesine geçerek, psikolojik savaş, asimetrik maliyet dengesi, enerji güvenliği ve büyük güç rekabeti bağlamında sistemik bir kırılma anına dönüşmektedir. Kırılmadan en çok etkilenenler sadece İran ve İsrail değil, ABD müttefiki Körfez ülkeleridir. Çatışmaların durdurulma iradesi Trump’a aittir. Ancak onun kararını da Epstein dosyaları, ABD İsrail lobisi ve neoconlar yönlendirecektir. Vatanı ve bayrağı olmayan finans kapitalin savaş uzadıkça kumar masasında kaybettiklerinin derecesi de şüphesiz neoconlar ve İsrail lobisini baskılayacaktır. Ancak her durumda belirleyici olan İran halkının direnme kapasitesidir.
10. İran İsrail&ABD savaşının genel değerlendirmesini bu akşam (2 Mart 2026) saat 2000'de kendi YouTube Kanalımda yapacağım. Kanalımın linki aşağıdaki gibidir: https://t.co/YpNhOrTFGs

[Robert W Malone, MD @RWMaloneMD]

Really - you want to go there?
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[Andy Naselli @AndyNaselli]

My church has published this resource as a free e-book in PDF format:
https://t.co/SbFdrRivxC

[Breaking911 @Breaking911]

URGENT: 911 lines down across Mississippi statewide - WAPT

[KHOU 11 News Houston @KHOU]

Three people were injured at a Dallas ICE facility this morning and police are searching for a possible sniper, sources told our sister station, WFAA. https://t.co/Y2QE5BQvbb

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

This is the definition of broken:

In 15 days, the Fed will cut rates for the first time in 2025, yet the 30Y Treasury Yield is now near 5.00%.

We have RISING interest rates as markets "price-in" Fed interest rate CUTS.

Do you realize what's happening?

(a thread)

[Jeff Hill @jhill3456]

If you, O Lord, should keep iniquities, O Lord, who could stand? But with You there is forgiveness, that you may be feared- Psalm 130:3-4

[Patrick Schreiner ☧ @pj_schreiner]

Fun to see three @MBTS OT profs contributing to the Pillar Old Testament Commentary Series.

Deuteronomy – Jason DeRouchie
Hosea – @drandrewmking
Nahum, Habakkuk, & Zephaniah – @nbhearson

https://t.co/1MLjrnUjon

[Jeff Hill @jhill3456]

In Him was life, and the life was the Light of men- John 1:3

[Oren Martin @orenrmartin]

It is Christ’s story which gives meaning to our lives, not our story which gives meaning to Christ’s life.

--Ciampa and Rosner

[Mrgunsngear @Mrgunsngear]

Giveaway time! I partnered up with @Firearms_Depot to give away 1,000 rounds of Blazer 9mm to one of y'all.

To enter is simple; 1 entry for each:
-like the Mrgunsngear X page
-like the Firearms Depot X page
-share the post
-comment below

A winner will be drawn in 7 days and I'll make the announcement here when we have the winning name/account. Good luck 🇺🇸

[The Spectator Index @spectatorindex]

SCIENCE: Microplastics and nanoplastics are increasingly abundant in brain tissue, according to a postmortem study of brains, raising concerns about heightened risks of heart attacks and strokes, according to research published in Nature Medicine.

[FOX 11 Los Angeles @FOXLA]

#BREAKING: Feds uncover a $200 million smuggling operation tied to China, using the Ports of LA. https://t.co/uXbNeDGBYE

[Jeff Hill @jhill3456]

@coookwithchris Free

[Benjamin L. Gladd @DrGladd]

Read and share

Please take a moment to pray for D. A. Carson. 🙏

I had lunch with him a few weeks ago in San Diego. He was as warm and gracious as ever, but he was slowing down.

“I am not suffering from anything that a good general resurrection can’t fix.”

https://t.co/M5VmhK2r0O

[Jeff Hill @jhill3456]

This is exactly right! Walk accordingly.

[ᴀɴᴛʜᴏɴʏ ᴍᴀᴛʜᴇɴɪᴀ @amathenia]

There seems to be a lot a talk about this issue or that issue being the biggest danger in the church today.

My money is here: "savage wolves"

"from among your own selves men will arise, speaking perverse things, to draw away the disciples after them"

[Jeff Hill @jhill3456]

Insanity

[R A W S A L E R T S @rawsalerts]

🚨#BREAKING: President Joe Biden has just authorized the use of U.S.-supplied long-range missiles by Ukraine for strikes inside Russia

[FoxNashville @FOXNashville]

The TBI says not only is this dangerous gang growing nationwide, but it is also impacting every major city across Tennessee. Watch @kyliewalkertv's full story: https://t.co/EYBFAS7tet

[The Spectator Index @spectatorindex]

RESEARCH: Consuming meat is associated with lower levels of depression and anxiety than abstaining from meat.

(Source: Critical Reviews in Food Science and Nutrition journal)