jhtally

The only person who has ever smoked an A5 Japanese Wagyu brisket. Twice.

Financial Advisor @ Prospero Wealth

[jhtally @jhtally]

Because of the exact mathematical precision required to route a 4-leg derivatives trade simultaneously, this isn’t a DIY mobile-app experiment. Bid-ask slippage or a miscalculated date will instantly erase your pricing advantage. For most, execution of this strategy is best left in professional hands.

[jhtally @jhtally]

Retail borrowing costs are over 6%, and you’re only getting that rate if you have great credit and are buying a home. Auto loans or personal loans can run a few percentage points above that, especially with less than perfect credit. But more and more investors are bypassing banks entirely to lock in fixed-rate, multi-year liquidity at rates under 5%.

How? An institutional derivatives strategy called a Box Spread.

Data shows an absolute breakout in search interest for this tactic: 🧵👇

[jhtally @jhtally]

But remember: There is no free lunch. The strategy carries two critical risks ⚠️

1. Portfolio Drawdown: The box has no market risk, but your core portfolio still does. If the market drops sharply and eats your equity cushion, automated systems will mechanically liquidate your holdings.

2. The Execution Trap: If you try this on standard equity options or ETFs (like SPY), you face American-style options mechanics. A counterparty can assign you early, collapsing the box into an unhedged margin nightmare.

You must exclusively use European-style, cash-settled index options (like SPX) where early exercise is legally impossible.

[jhtally @jhtally]

@FDavidsonT Interested, and in the process of evaluating travel advisors for an international, multi family trip next year...

[jhtally @jhtally]

@IvanTheK Agree -- seeing longer response times in Cowork. I find myself queueing up more simultaneously running tasks.

[jhtally @jhtally]

@nicochristie Would love to try it!

[jhtally @jhtally]

And it's hard to see or imagine more new loans being originated at current rates.

[jhtally @jhtally]

I heard @camharvey on @TheCompoundNews and was inspired to pull the data from FRED on outstanding loans from US commercial banks.

It's no secret that commercial real estate has been hit hard, but you wouldn't know it from the value that's sitting on banks' balance sheets...

[jhtally @jhtally]

I was also surprised that these 3 segments of the market are so similar in size.

The real takeaway of course is that growth in loans = growth in the economy. When loan issuance slows, historically the economy has.

[jhtally @jhtally]

Watching the @dallascowboys game with my kids and explaining why Philly and their fans are the absolute worst.

[jhtally @jhtally]

5. Influence others
- your idea is only as good as its story
- create persuasive messages 
- make a memorable case
- steer meetings your way

[jhtally @jhtally]

People love talking about sales, but no one talks about advocacy.

[jhtally @jhtally]

3. Build relationships that let ideas prosper
- form alliances
- network

4. Presell ideas
- who’s making the decision
- timing is everything
- make a memorable case