Long $SNDK $MU
>>>June Market Chaos
Major Correction in Progress – Buy in Batches
Memory Super Cycle Far From Over AI Demand Will Continue to Explode
Five Core Conclusions
>Higher efficiency will not reduce memory demand Instead it will massively expand the overall market pie
>Historical patterns repeatedly prove Jevons Paradox still holds true in the AI era
>China's supply impact mainly affects mid-to-low-end segments HBM and advanced DRAM will see almost no effect in the short term
>Once enterprises adopt AI they cannot stop Usage depth and breadth keep expanding
>The 2028 "peak end" view is overly optimistic
Real capital expenditure cycle will far exceed this timeline
>>Higher efficiency Lowers AI usage cost
--
Lower cost Encourages more industries and more companies to adopt at scale
More adoption Requires even more advanced memory
This is a powerful positive loop
Not the bearish fantasy of "if it gets expensive people will stop buying"
--
Look back at history
In the 1990s when internet speed increased People didn't use the internet less They started watching videos playing games and data volume exploded
In the 2000s when mobile data prices dropped People didn't make fewer calls They started mobile browsing watching videos and video calls
After cloud computing costs fell Enterprises didn't buy fewer servers They moved SaaS big data and machine learning onto the cloud
Every time efficiency improves The entire market scale grows exponentially
The AI era is exactly the same
--
From HBM3 to HBM4 Bandwidth increases dramatically
The same GPU can process more tokens Token price per unit drops
This attracts hesitant companies to enter in force Longer context more complex models more users
Demand doesn't decrease It explodes across the board
--
China's supply is indeed increasing
But CXMT mainly produces DDR4 DDR5 standard memory YMTC focuses on NAND
What AI truly needs is high-end HBM advanced DDR5 LPDDR5X
China still faces huge gaps in technology equipment yield and packaging in these areas It will be difficult to catch up in the next 2-3 years or even longer
--
The conclusion is simple
Bears' biggest misjudgment Is treating "efficiency improvement" as "demand reduction"
History has never supported this conclusion And the AI era will be no exception
Memory GPU and power demand Will all grow exponentially together
The super cycle will continue
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