Metals trading. Professional background in physical oil products and base metals derivs (SHFE & LME). Asian hours | Energy, metals, agriculture, macro.
@BurggrabenH the (real) chinese economy needs this normalisation for a more sustainable development path going forward. Broadly the economy has also pivoted away from property for a while now - no longer a priority
@CRUDEOIL231 That said with prices breaching 14k recently, demand has pulled back significantly. It’s a story of weak demand + tightening supply at the moment
@CRUDEOIL231 Just a theory, but perhaps it’s in CN and Iran’s leverage interest to allow price suppression, keep prices low, support demand and accel stock draws to achieve a max vulnerability point sometime in the next 2-3 months.
@pinkbourbon8898 One risk to the above is that Indo coal and cpo production is diesel dependent (barges, generators, trucking). If availability becomes an issue, production gets impacted accordingly. One idea would be long coal and cpo but short rupiah accordingly.