Juho Johansson

Energy abundance and non-energy minerals. $OKLO $NB $UUUU $EQR.AX
$OKLO community link below

[Juho Johansson @JJFIN007]

Join the $OKLO community and find great insights and thoughts about the company. Come and share yours😉

[Asymmetrical Bets @AsymmetricBets_]

$ALM CEO: There’s no AI without Tungsten.

"It's like being able to make the greatest birthday cake in the world, but if you don't have any wheat, then there is no way to make the cake. That's really how you should look at critical metals"

[Juho Johansson @JJFIN007]

$OKLO already has a seat at the big table, but people haven't realised it.
Summers going to be great this year😎

[Juho Johansson @JJFIN007]

"Niocorp remains the highest priority for @EximBankUS right now in terms of critical strategic mineral projects"

According to $NB CEO Mark Smith, the comment came directly from the highest-ranking EXIM official present at the meeting yesterday.

@NioCorp CEO Mark Smith expects EXIM to spend the next few weeks reviewing the feasibility data to determine how much EXIM may lend, what the debt-to-equity ratio will be, and how much additional fundraising, if any, will be needed going forward.

[Juho Johansson @JJFIN007]

"Niocorp remains the highest priority for @EximBankUS right now in terms of critical strategic mineral projects"

According to $NB CEO Mark Smith, the comment came directly from the highest-ranking EXIM official present at the meeting yesterday.

@NioCorp CEO Mark Smith expects EXIM to spend the next few weeks reviewing the feasibility data to determine how much EXIM may lend, what the debt-to-equity ratio will be, and how much additional fundraising, if any, will be needed going forward.

[Juho Johansson @JJFIN007]

"Niocorp remains the highest priority for
@EximBankUS
right now in terms of critical strategic mineral projects" According to

$NB
CEO Mark Smith, the comment came directly from the highest-ranking EXIM official present at the meeting yesterday.
@NioCorp

CEO Mark Smith expects EXIM to spend the next few weeks reviewing the feasibility data to determine how much EXIM may lend, what the debt-to-equity ratio will be, and how much additional fundraising, if any, will be needed going forward.

[Juho Johansson @JJFIN007]

It seems they intentionally delayed the information since it's only 3 days after the roundtable meeting at the State Department.

[Juho Johansson @JJFIN007]

NioCorp to Host Webcast on Aug. 11 to Discuss Elk Creek Feasibility Study Results $NB
https://t.co/tpp2RErtZc

[Juho Johansson @JJFIN007]

@cekdrew Wait is this it? guys?!?😮

[Juho Johansson @JJFIN007]

IS IT TIME?
President Donald Trump is expected to attend a roundtable ​on Friday with top mining executives hosted by the U.S. ‌State Department
$MP $USAR $UUUU $NB
https://t.co/WDm922beuM

[Teo @Teo_Sinamin]

Critical minerals investors tonight because we will see China retaliates this week

[Juho Johansson @JJFIN007]

$BE Bloom investors are you starting to shake in your boots? #scandium $NB
https://t.co/IZXecuVNwa

[Montana Magnet @USAC_Bull]

🚨 BREAKING: President Trump signs an executive order tightening restrictions on critical materials sourced from adversarial nations,

Defense contractors being encouraged to qualify new domestic suppliers.

$UAMY

[Juho Johansson @JJFIN007]

Mineral miners’ stocks are acting like the US has already locked in supply lines away from China — while rare earths are still called a struggling relic of the past.

Nuclear energy in the West is in the exact same spot. Both are critical to real supply chain security, yet undervalued like believing your iPhone is made in an Apple store and your fridge runs on magic from the outlet."

[cek @cekdrew]

Imagine this.

Sunday, July 19.

China retaliates. Rare earth export restrictions tighten again… completely legal in Beijing’s eyes under the strategic mineral laws it recently codified. The legal framework is already in place.

Rare earth stocks would probably trade at levels most people can’t even imagine.

I’m not saying it’s going to happen.

But it’s fascinating to me how heavily shorted some of these companies are when a single geopolitical catalyst can completely change the narrative overnight.

The biggest thing I’m watching right now is the proposed $14 billion U.S. weapons package for Taiwan. It’s currently stalled, but the reasons why depend on who you ask….

Some officials have pointed to munitions priorities and stockpile concerns related to the Iran conflict, while others insist the package was never actually “paused” and is simply still under review as part of the normal approval process. Trump outright said it’s a bargaining chip.

If that package ultimately moves forward, Beijing would almost certainly view it as a major escalation. China has repeatedly warned that U.S. arms sales to Taiwan cross one of its core red lines.

Whether you’re bullish or bearish, the U.S. x China conflict isn’t going away. I think we’re entering a new era of strategic competition: one where critical minerals, trade, and technology become increasingly central.

Buckle up.

[Juho Johansson @JJFIN007]

@cekdrew

[cek @cekdrew]

Trump Officials Reportedly Say China Isn’t Following Critical Minerals Agreement $MP $USAR $UUUU $UAMY $TMC $AREC

Reopening access to critical minerals and rare earths, crucial for US companies manufacturing a wide range of products including cars and fighter jets, was a central objective of the pact Trump struck with Chinese President Xi Jinping last year in South Korea.

But in meetings and messages described by people who requested anonymity to detail internal discussions, staffers at the White House and Office of the US Trade Representative acknowledge Beijing simply isn't abiding by the Trump administration's understanding of the deal.
Moreover, the people say, a code of silence has gripped the trade team since the Busan summit.

While there's plenty of internal grumbling and frustration voiced among Trump officials, those familiar with the situation describe a hush culture where the US government is reluctant to publicly admonish China and risk plunging the countries back into a trade war.

Some officials believe Trump is particularly disinclined toward registering any objection that could endanger his plans to host Xi for a lavish state visit in September. There's also concern that pushing back could prompt the Chinese leader to escalate retaliation in a way that could rock markets ahead of November's midterm elections or fully turn off access to critical minerals.

The US-China Business Council said in its member survey last month that access to rare earths from China "remains uneven amid operational challenges, including lengthy and opaque licensing processes, delays, and increasingly complex coordination with suppliers." It said that some rare earths remained "nearly unobtainable."

Still, other US officials are worried that China is testing how far it can go before it provokes a US response — and may interpret months of inaction as license to push Washington for even greater concessions.

A major concern is that US negotiators have still been unable to convince Chinese officials to put anything specific in writing on critical raw materials access, leaving the commitments open to interpretation. That allows China to claim it's adhering to the terms, even while violating their spirit.

While exports of military equipment were explicitly excluded from the Busan deal, defense contractors and subcontractors are also feeling the pinch. During one recent meeting at the Pentagon, military officials were informed that major contractors — and subcontracting partners — were struggling to deliver fully functional defense platforms on time because magnets aren't being delivered from China at a reasonable pace.

More broadly, the officials worry that the Chinese will interpret the relative silence by the US in response to provocations as a signal Trump lacks the appetite or attention span for a sustained trade fight, particularly as the Iran war resulted in higher energy prices.

https://t.co/StW3bu5duf

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: President Trump says the U.S. is going to bomb Iranian power plants and bridges next week if Iran does not “come to the table” and negotiate.

“We are going to knock out all of their power plants, we are going to knock out all of their bridges,” Trump says.

[cek @cekdrew]

180 Days Have Passed. Still No Critical Minerals Update $MP $USAR $UUUU $TMC $UAMY $AREC

The 180-day period outlined in the White House’s January 14 Proclamation on Processed Critical Minerals has now passed.

The proclamation stated that if agreements with trading partners were not entered into within 180 days, were not being carried out, or proved ineffective, the President may take additional actions to adjust imports of processed critical minerals and their derivative products.

As of today, there has been no announcement of any Section 232 measures.

Could an update be coming soon or did the United States completely drop the ball here?

https://t.co/ky8bTLtmxm

[Juho Johansson @JJFIN007]

$UUUU $NB

[⚗️ NdPr DyTb | Rare Earths ⛏️⚗️🔥🔬🧲 Analyst ⭐ @roblun1]

🚨 China's rare earth exports just fell off a cliff — again.

📉 June 2026: 5,105 tonnes exported

▪️ Down 7% MoM (from 5,490t in May)
▪️ Down 34% YoY (vs record 7,742t in June 2025)
▪️ H1 2026 total: 30,483t — down 6.4% vs H1 2025

This isn't a blip. It's the direct fallout from Beijing's April 2025 export controls on 7 critical heavy REEs — and the squeeze is still tightening 14 months later.

💰 Meanwhile prices are telling their own story (SMM, June 2026):

🔺 Terbium +22.8% → $969.69/kg — near April's all-time peak. FOB price: $1,406/kg (+$436 premium)

🔺 Germanium → 2026 high of $2,673.66/kg. Western warehouse price: $6,150/kg = 130% premium over domestic

🔺 Praseodymium +13.9% | NdPr Alloy +10.0% | Indium +9.3% | Gallium +3.6%

🔻 Dysprosium −5.5% (2nd straight month) — the lone outlier, cushioned by a larger global supply base (2,000+t vs terbium's 300–400t)

But the bigger tell is in the pricing:

🔹 Terbium rebounded 22.8% in June to $969.69/kg
🔹 NdPr alloy rose 10.0% to $109.55/kg
🔹 Praseodymium metal gained 13.9%
🔹 Germanium hit a new 2026 high at $2,673.66/kg
🔹 Dysprosium was the outlier, easing 5.5% to $208.68/k

⚙️ The structural read:

China still controls ~92% of refined NdPr and 98-99% of separated heavy REEs. Combined Western NdPr output covers <15% of global demand. Analysts say fully independent Western supply chains are 10-15 years away.

The volatility is not telling us the shortage is over. It’s telling us ex-China supply is still structurally tight, especially in heavy rare earths. May looked like an inventory correction. June looked like the constraint reasserting itself.

👀 What to watch in July: MIIT's H2 quota call, terbium licence flow, germanium's US warehouse breaking $6,200/kg, and Q2 EV output data.

Meanwhile, Western buyers are still paying big structural premiums for licensed material, and the midstream bottleneck — separation, metallisation, alloying — remains the hardest part to rebuild outside China. 🧲🏭

Watch next:

👀 China’s H2 quota announcement
👀 Terbium licence flow
👀 Germanium warehouse stocks
👀 Q2 EV production data

Falling export volumes + rising prices = the deficit narrative isn't cyclical noise. It's structural.

The market is reminding everyone that rare earth supply chains are still driven more by geopolitics and processing control than by mine output alone.

#RareEarths #REEs #Terbium #Dysprosium #Germanium #NdPr #China #CriticalMinerals #SupplyChain #Magnets #EV #Mining #Geopolitics #ExportControls #Gallium #Indium

[Yellow Lab Life Capital @YellowLabLife]

Very interesting article flagged to the Koala overnight from 2025

By Hunan Oriental Scandium's own analysis, the only production of #scandium oxide outside of China is Coral Bay, Sorel-Tracy, and Russia

And as @hntrbrkmedia and @CrossroadsOnX both observed, Bloom Energy $BE consumes ~30 tonnes per year TODAY

13 is less than 30 in every version of math the Koala is aware of