Joel Kantor

S&P is not quite oversold using the RSI but arguably one of the most important prices in the world is, 2yr bonds. Their yields at ~3.90% are the north star for Fed funds rates (3.5-3.75%) and have risen over 50 bps (the equivalent to two 25 bps hikes) since late Feb. Jerome Powell statements on Wednesday including "the possibility that our next move might be an increase did come up at the meeting," and "if we don't see progress on inflation, we won't see a rate cut" helped drive this. But a rate hike at the next April meeting seems unlikely given the global risks to growth. Also a new Fed chair should start in mid-May and is more biased towards cuts. As a result, now might be a good time to consider putting some cash to work for those willing to take on more risk and inclined to “buy to the sound of cannons.” Gold related securities which have gone from overbought in late February to now oversold and are historically uncorrelated to the market I believe are a good risk adjusted idea.

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Joel Kantor @jkantor2

5 months ago

@enriqueabeyta Bad day to try to keep your tan.

Who to follow

Stefan Rothe

@stefanrothe

Cycling Coach & Bike Fitter @rothetraining; 🚴 @iamspecialized #capocycling; @MSUTexas Alumni '05 & '16; transplanted 🇩🇪 from @stadt_dresden!

Travis Dunn

@Jarvidus

a dad, just like a bunch of you, always striving to be the best father. Local bike race microphone yapper

Tina Fountain

@tinathecyclist

Joel Kantor @jkantor2

6 months ago

@kerz_investing @DeItaone What? He said this? Really?

Joel Kantor @jkantor2

7 months ago

@enriqueabeyta So much better than the ballpark lite beer

jkantor2 retweeted

Dan Niles

@DanielTNiles

7 months ago

Last wk, 1) AI related $MU +10% nxt day on earnings (unlike $AVGO $NVDA which sold off hard), 2) OpenAI raising money at $830B valuation, 3) core CPI surprising at lowest since Mar-2021, put themes driving this mkt for past 3 yrs back on optimistic footing: easy money & AI. I posted on Wednesday “there were some signs of at least a potential short-term bottom. $JBL was up 2% on a beat & raise qtr, while $MSFT which owns 27% of OpenAI was down only 0.1% despite the continuing bludgeoning of OpenAI related names $ORCL and $SFTBY, both down 4-5%.” I was fortunate and this indeed turned out to be the case. The S&P/Mag7/GOOGL complex/ OAI complex was +1.7%/+2.8%/+8.8%/+10.0% on Thursday and Friday combined in response I believe to the three catalysts above. Having said that, you could say they were just +0.1%/+1.5%/-0.1%/+2.3% for the entire wk. Looking forward, the part of the calendar dubbed “the Santa Claus rally” by Yale Hirsch is coming which is the last 5 trading days of the year plus the two trading days of the upcoming year. It is up over 70% of the time with an average return of 1.3%. To be clear, I try to focus on the market right in front of me and look for high probability opportunities for good risk adjusted returns during which I can add or subtract exposure at hopefully opportune times. Anytime I can have the odds in my favor is a blessing. From a longer-term viewpoint, as I said on Thursday on the @riskreversal podcast, I expect the market to be choppy in 2026. On the negative side, it would not surprise me when OAI launches their advertising product to see the $GOOGL complex of stocks get hit early in the year and the OpenAI complex to rally. In addition, some of the ads on $META are also going to switch. It is just math that OAI will take some share given it is going from 0% of the online ad market and has around ~900M weekly users. It also seems that inflation was not actually this low given that not all the data was collected leaving some components at minimal change in the calculation. But this is what we have to work with and the market is reacting to it, rightly or wrongly. This could mean a higher than expected inflation print a month from now while the trailing PE on the S&P is a high at 26x . On the positive side to start the year, the Fed moved from Quantitative Tightening to “QE light” in December with the Fed now buying $40B per month in treasuries. In addition due to the OBBB, there should be $100-$150B in consumer tax refunds in Q1 and corporations will get tax benefits related to R&D and capital expenditures. Looking out further, the new Fed chair appointed by President Trump in May is going to want to cut rates another 50-100 bps at least. Easy money has been a core driver for this market for the past several years and that is not likely to change. In summary, I am looking forward to spending time with family, watching my favorite Christmas movies and a Santa Claus rally to end the year. But as Charles Darwin would say, I am trying to stay “adaptable to change” as I think about 2026. I expect the year to be choppy but with an upward bias due to the continuation of both easy money and the AI trade though I expect it to be more discerning.

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