Jkray

Interest in macro, mining resources companies, commodities.

[Jkray @Jkray35]

2025 Predictions
1. US bond yield end 2025 at same or lower
2. Aus bond yield going lower
3. Big takeovers on ASX from over seas entities (not China thank you FIRB)
4. China economy to do nothing productive. Start of lost many decades.
5. Aus Native title laws start unravelling.

[Jkray @Jkray35]

@bowtiedstocks Chalmers is not giving the market much confidence with the constant denials.

[Jkray @Jkray35]

@IFM_Economist All those unions getting massive pay rises with no much to show for it.
Feel bad for the 5% mortgage crowd.

[Jkray @Jkray35]

@solo_dio_ 40 will be a most pleasant number. Nice quarters please.

[Jkray @Jkray35]

@HydroCarbon777 The mortgage market is $2.5T the NPL rising to $25B is akin to rounding error.
More impact from rising interest rate cutting down borrowing capacity. Or unemployment going up.

[Jkray @Jkray35]

@BenMillerise If this did happen then yes. Still big if at the moment.

[Jkray @Jkray35]

@John_Hempton Sounds dangerous. Something that has complete conviction on the wrong fact. And it is programmed to always respond.

[Jkray @Jkray35]

@mondyinvest Anything short of selling itself is just prolonging the pain for SHs.

[Jkray @Jkray35]

@vshih2 Data needs to be scientifically studied and follows Chinese new age values.

[Jkray @Jkray35]

Less real data from China.

[Victor Shih @vshih2]

Eh like this is very important for researchers https://t.co/nxqFeDG7JI

[Jkray @Jkray35]

@abroninvestor Space X above 2T and Tesla above 1T still. This can keep going higher.
More likely 1987 down then a gradual return to fair value.

[Jkray @Jkray35]

@tuvidux Brazil production not planning to increase?

There is nothing in the world that comes close to Chinese production. Now you are just talking hopium. Good luck

[Jkray @Jkray35]

@tuvidux You say that now about Sim. Look at all the doubts 5 years ago (myself included).

Aus production may not rise much more as a function of port export capacity. But it won’t decline much either.

Regardless the elephant in the room is declining Chinese steel production.

[Jkray @Jkray35]

@tuvidux Simandou ramp up to 120mtpa. Other African projects progressing. New Aus projects in the pipeline, RhodesRidge etc.

At steady state IO price is going to fall. The easier money is probably in looking for African supply disruptions.

[Jkray @Jkray35]

@tuvidux Declining iron ore grades mostly replaced by new high grade supply/projects.
The % of scrap metal usage in Chinese steel is growing. ~10% currently but they are targeting 15%.

[Jkray @Jkray35]

@AvidCommentator ONP let’s go!

[Jkray @Jkray35]

@vshih2 Competition for Li Qiang perhaps? Keep the cadre guessing.

[Jkray @Jkray35]

@ChuckChunder007 I wonder how well the last company ran by the MD is doing.

[Jkray @Jkray35]

@abroninvestor @justbruschi @mondyinvest @WSJ Or articles regurgitating what “property experts” said. Or articles on how great Canva is.