Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺

Economics writer and analyst

Macrobusiness | Yahoo Finance | can help to support my content by subscribing at

[Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺 @AvidCommentator]

Labor's primary vote has collapsed to be down over 47% in an electorate (and its predecessors) it has held since their inception almost 40 years ago. https://t.co/nnMHB08mYl

[Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺 @AvidCommentator]

It depends on who I have annoyed at the time.

For example, sometimes Ill have a housing article (particularly around relative affordability over time and property investors) go viral, getting 100s of 1000s of views.

Many people will read just the headline, get angry and decide to follow the link on my https://t.co/650ZahY2Lx profile to my Twitter to completely flip their s***.

Other days I manage to piss off people from all sides, winning the abuse trifecta from people supporting all the now major parties.

Or I'll make comment on the Middle East (something I actually know about lot about) and I'll have a bunch of yanks or Trump supporters flipping out in my feed.

[Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺 @AvidCommentator]

On a very bad day, I get well over a dozen abusive comments and even some DM's.

And that is to say nothing of the wackos who have tried to take things even further.

I am just a random bloke with a decently large following who maintains a high degree of civility, even when attacked on the regular.

Yet me being civil and engaging in earnest debate doesnt stop people who regularly claim they are peaceful, just want to fight evil or something along those narrative lines from being absolute bastards.

Now I'm a big boy who believes in free speech, so I let the overwhelming majority of it slide without argument or blocking.

But it just goes to show how often people who claim they want civility or to turn down the temperature are absolutely full of crap and will gladly attack people based entirely on ideology.

Even when there is little basis for that attack aside from an earnestly held disagreement.

[Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺 @AvidCommentator]

@Bryce_B Because there is no other credible way to achieve genuine housing affordability without huge price drops on anything approaching a reasonable timeline.

[Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺 @AvidCommentator]

Fantastic, two more years of this please.

[Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺 @AvidCommentator]

@tritto499321 Thanks for the support mate, I really appreciate it.

I'm not going anywhere and if anything I'm going bigger from here platform wise.

[Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺 @AvidCommentator]

@eevblog Two more years of this would see prices down about 40% from peak.

No need to be too greedy.

[Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺 @AvidCommentator]

When we hit 2019 levels of negative equity, then there will be a modicum of justification of concern over this as a broader issue.

Another ~15% in price falls to go then....

More on this in detail coming to https://t.co/RWkWUauv3a in the weeks ahead.

[Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺 @AvidCommentator]

The problem was housing prices rising to such insane heights, not the fact that they are now unwinding from a situation where a capital city median at $1.227m was normal.

Like Japan the original sin was prices and debt getting out of control, not the inevitable bust.

[Scott Phillips @TMFScottP]

The first sentence will get all of the attention.

Just remember to put it in context with the second-last sentence.

$1.227m!

[Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺 @AvidCommentator]

@qa__rocks Pretty much mate.

I don't think we would get very far, there would swiftly be ideological disagreements over things like the purpose of immigration or whether housing prices should be high.

[Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺 @AvidCommentator]

Amidst the current highly charged political environment, it would be fair to state that both sides of politics have claimed crap economic outcomes are tip top during their respective times in office.

The problem for the Albanese government?

The failure is cumulative.

People are feeling the failures and mistakes that kicked off as early as the Howard government and have got worse and worse over time.

Which should serve as a warning for Albanese' successor, whoever that may be.

Either get the country back on a more positive path to improvement, or own not only your own failures, but all those who came before you.

[Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺 @AvidCommentator]

The rental market is going to see the lowest number of new students coming in, in well over a decade on these numbers.

Some positive news on the horizon for renters, the opposite for those hoping for a continuing worsening supply/demand imbalance to support housing prices.

[Antipodean Macro @AntipodeanMacro]

Student visa grant numbers in Australia getting slaughtered, particularly those to offshore applicants.

[Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺 @AvidCommentator]

@kevinbonham Well said mate.

He should have just manned up from the start and owned it for what it was.

And the news cycle would have been on to something else by tomorrow.

[Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺 @AvidCommentator]

'Anthony Albanese sensationally claims Helen Haines ‘dirt file’ proves her ‘integrity’ in extraordinary defence of smear campaign document'

This is emblematic of a PM who too often refuses to acknowledge the reality of his government's actions.
https://t.co/xQkArbDoIh

[Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺 @AvidCommentator]

As housing prices continue to fall rapidly.

A suggestion:

Note down all the politicians complaining about falling prices, so you know to never take them seriously in the future when they talk up housing affordability.

Which they most certainly will try.

[Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺 @AvidCommentator]

I'm sad to say that the commentary on the Helen Haines incident has heavily descended into partisan farce.

Too heavily defined by claims of the other side "turning up the heat", but generally not acknowledging their own sides role.

Personally, I would like to see political discourse conducted with a great deal more civility.

I deal with the abuse, false accusations and threats on a far too regular basis.

However, I also understand that we have arrived at a juncture when we have a political discourse that is too often dominated by dodgy political narratives and propaganda, so greater frustration is increasingly inevitable.

This is a choice made by elements of the political and commentator classes, even if the rest of us believe it deeply foolhardy.

Ultimately, I think this should be a time for introspection, to assess in a fact based way what has gone wrong, what is likely to deteriorate further in the future and then formulate a strategy to address that.

In reality, I expect growing censorship and suppression will be the order of the day, which will only make the problem worse.

[Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺 @AvidCommentator]

Perhaps, but the data suggests the size of day to day state expenditure as a proportion of GDP has shrunk and come down significantly since the pandemic peak.

Yet the federal government is larger than ever before as measured by the national accounts.

While I concur that its still too large, particularly in light of fiscal sustainability issues, there is a Gulf between the approach of the states and the federal government.

[Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺 @AvidCommentator]

@GrayConnolly Indeed, which is part of the job description.

This is just the latest instance of people getting offended about the latest thing and it spreading like wildfire through social media.

People need to learn how to take a joke.

Its Shane Gillis, not an Oxford sociology professor.

[David Scutt @Scutty]

RBA Nov hike now priced at 60%. Reckon we need a 0.9% trimmed mean print for Q3, or lower, to stop cash moving to 4.85%.