The businesses today are more efficient and just objectively better businesses (consistently higher gross margins) than prior generations. I think that is where people get thrown off when comparing historical P/E. The P/E today should be higher and assuming it mean reverts is not a crazy assumption, but it’s not what I would want to wager on.
@cullenroche Do you look at truflation for comparison purposes? They have been sub 1% for a few weeks now, not sure if that tells much from a leading perspective, but their track record has been pretty good over the last few years.
@royalsreview No one can answer the question as to how they are going to get the downtown view in the outfield and that’s because you CAN’T do it based on MLB rules. Downtown is due south of NKC and the setting sun makes that orientation impossible. Without the view what’s the point?
@BobEUnlimited So you’re short the spx then? Serious question because I know all the hard data is tracking in the wrong direction, but I’m going to continue to buy every two weeks because I’m on the far left of the mid wit curve that tells me to just keep buying. 10%/yr until proven wrong.
@cullenroche Agreed on everything, which in my mind is bullish for the s&p 500, but then I wonder if AI starts rapidly taking jobs, unemployment spikes, total wages are down, doesn't that impact earnings in a negative way which flows thru to the stock price?? ZIRP & UBI incoming??
@ClayTravis I've yet to hear someone articulately explain why the US running a trade deficit is bad for the country as a whole. "Saving our blue collar jobs" is the flipside of the liberal argument that tries to "protect" the 2% LGBTQ population at the expense of the 98%.
@cullenroche Can Congress grow a spine and step in and end this tariff madness once and for all?? I don't understand how we've even gotten this far down the incompetence road.
@fox4wx Can we get an intervention on whoever handles the snowfall totals?? They are consistently WAY less than every surrounding reporting location. This has been going on for years.
@RampCapitalLLC May 2022 7/1 ARM to save 50bps, break even on the savings is 11 years even with the 2% bump for 2 years (capped at 4%). Getting a little nervous about my decision but I think we’re good! Also if rates never drop it means the market is still ripping! Excellent emotional hedge.
@awealthofcs Thoughts on Bob Elliot's inflation/Fed take that the data doesn't support a cut? He's obviously sharp, but I'm not sure how you look at all of the same info (especially real time rent data) and don't come to the rate cut conclusion.
@RampCapitalLLC Had it happen before…insurance ruling is your property is your responsibility, doesn’t matter where the tree is located. HOWEVER, since the claim is probably under the deductible, means your neighbor kicks in at least 5 free lessons and everyone calls it good good.
@awealthofcs I love all of your articles and the animal spirits podcast but please don’t fall into the trap of saying hurricanes are more extreme every year. Check out the 40’s and compare to any other 10 year period you want. I know you guys respect the charts so please chart on and review.