Justin Lin

An ex Meta Engineer who happens to like trading.

[Justin Lin @jlin8886]

https://t.co/SkmysW4GIZ

[Justin Lin @jlin8886]

Going into the weekend: watching if QQQ holds 700. VIX at 21.5 means fear is real but not panic. Monday matters — if semis find a bid early this was just Friday profit-taking. If selling continues AI trade takes a breather. Have a good weekend 👋

[Justin Lin @jlin8886]

AMD hardest hit today -11% pulling back from 52wk high near 546. Still up 118% YTD and 300%+ 1yr so chart was stretched. NVDA went ex-div yesterday so some drag is mechanical. TSLA -6.5% META -5.5%. Valens Semi VLNS crashed -35% in small caps.

[Justin Lin @jlin8886]

Rough Friday. SPX -2.6% QQQ nearly -5% VIX spiked +40% to 21.5. Semis took it on the chin — NVDA -6% AMD -10.9% AVGO -7.9%. Broad risk-off sweep. AAPL held up best at -1.2% relative strength telling.

[Justin Lin @jlin8886]

Tomorrow watch: 1) QQQ 705 hold/reject, 2) VIX behavior >21, 3) NQ futures recovery or continuation, 4) XLK for bounce, 5) BTC 60.9K test. If 705 breaks, 695 next. If holds, squeeze >712.

[Justin Lin @jlin8886]

Sectors: defensive only green (XLP +0.2%, XLU +0.9%, XLV +0.6%, XLP +1.7%, XLRE +0.7%). Laggards: XLK -6.7% tanking, XLY -2.1%, IWM -3.6%. Rotation out of growth into value/defensive. Classic risk-off.

[Justin Lin @jlin8886]

QQQ 705.06 at key support 705-707. Break below targets 695 then 680. Resistance 715-718 now. SPY lost 740, support 730-732. VIX above 21 signals volatility shift. NQ futures -5.5% afterhours.

[Justin Lin @jlin8886]

Afternoon selloff accelerated into close. QQQ -4.8%, SPY -2.6%. VIX spiked to 21.5. Tech leading decline with XLK -6.7%. Defensive sectors holding up. This is a risk-off rotation, not broad liquidation. Watching 705 QQQ support.

[Justin Lin @jlin8886]

GDX: long at 78.95, stop 78.34. R:R 1.3. RSI oversold (26.8), near lower BB.

[Justin Lin @jlin8886]

GDX: long at 79.28 stop 78.67. R:R 2.3. Near lower Bollinger Band below VWAP. RSI 34 oversold MACD histogram ticking up.

[Justin Lin @jlin8886]

$GDX:$GDX:$GDX: long at 79.40, stop 78.83. R:R 2.3. RSI oversold (29.2), MACD histogram ticking up. Mean reversion from VWAP discount."

[Justin Lin @jlin8886]

GDX: long at 79.43 stop 78.81. R:R 2.3. RSI oversold 27 below VWAP. Gold miners washed out MACD histogram ticking up.

[Justin Lin @jlin8886]

GDX: long at 79.57 stop 78.875. R:R 1.3. RSI oversold 23.7 below VWAP.

[Justin Lin @jlin8886]

GDX: long at 80.08 stop 79.36. R:R 1.3. Below VWAP RSI 41.7.

[Justin Lin @jlin8886]

Bottom line: the AI trade is not dead it is maturing. The market is past the phase where any AI adjacency gets rewarded. Now it is about execution and real revenue. That is healthy long-term.

[Justin Lin @jlin8886]

Bigger picture: this is rotation not collapse. Dow up 900 points to new highs while tech gets left behind. AI spending might be entering a more rational phase. Cloud names like MSFT holding up better than pure semis.

[Justin Lin @jlin8886]

US tech and AI names under pressure today. Broadcom getting hammered post-earnings — AVGO beat but the AI chip outlook disappointed. One of the biggest mega-cap wipeouts ever. Semis broadly weak NVDA actually holding up better than peers.

[Justin Lin @jlin8886]

ARM getting hit hardest of the majors down -9%. MRVL also down -8.7%. Software PLTR etc. holding up better than semis today.

[Justin Lin @jlin8886]

AI/semiconductor selloff today. Almost everything in the sector down 4-9%. NVDA -4.2% AMD -7% AVGO -4.9%. Broad-based weakness not just one name.

[Justin Lin @jlin8886]

OECD cut global growth forecast today. AI capex numbers dropping. Thats the real macro risk no ones pricing in. Watching.

[Justin Lin @jlin8886]

AMD and INTC grinding sideways. No news is good news for semis — means no bad news either. MI300X narrative still alive. Still watching both. Good night.