Jens Nærvig Pedersen

Tweet about FX, rates, commodities, monetary policy and related ramblings 🌻 Chief Analyst @danske_research, [phone] / [email protected]

[Jens Nærvig Pedersen @jnaervig]

Der sker virkelig meget med digitale centralbankvalutaer – eller CBDC’er – i øjeblikket. Er det krypto? Forsvinder kontanter? Skal pengesystemet revolutioneres? Hvad med pengepolitikken? #dkøko

https://t.co/0So8iOvXoY

[Otto Brøns-Petersen @OttoBrons]

Nu er krisen i energipolitikken i Danmark så stor, at politikerne har indført rationering.

Nu bestemmes adgangen til elnettet politisk.

Det er ikke alene symbolsk. Det er også en farlig udvikling.

Rationering er en ineffektiv metode, som gør udnyttelsen af den knappe kapacitet dårligere. Rationering skaber lobbyisme og rent-seeking.

Rationeringen bliver i første omgang brugt til at lange ud efter de datacentre (som for får år siden i øvrigt var politikernes darling, før de faldt i unåde).

Den effektive metode til håndtere knap kapacitet er gennem prissætning, sådan som vi i øvrigt gør i de fleste sammenhænge. Det havde været den rette vej at håndtere de akutte problemer i elnettet på. Nu bliver de i stedet værre.

https://t.co/DTBZuWUjow

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

Strait of Hormuz observations:

1) Clearly, there's some movement: ~10 LPG / products / oil tankers are crossing (but includes dark fleet)

2) At the same time, other oil tankers have stopped after approaching

3) All the (vissible) traffic is via the new Iranian shipping lanes

[The Olympic Games @Olympics]

A legend of the sport. 🏸

After an incredible badminton career, two-time Olympic champion Viktor Axelsen has announced his retirement. ❤️

Congratulations on an amazing journey. 🥉🥇🥇 #Badminton

[Joseph Wang @josephwang]

Looks like we've hit an inflection point where higher oil prices no longer push Fed policy expectations higher. Lower equity prices is moderating inflation fears by highlighting recession fears.

[Peter Kurrild-Klitgaard @kurrild]

RUNDOWN OF HISTORICAL RESULTS OF DANISH 2026 ELECTION
* Second worst electoral drubbing ever for a Danish government: All three coalition parties lost support (-19 seats), from 89 seats to 70 seats. Biggest loss for a government since 1973 (-24 seats).
* First election since 1971, where all parties in a government coalition have lost seats.
* Social Democrats won smallest vote share (21,8%) in a parliamentary election since 1903 (20,5%). Third national election in a row where the party suffered losses (local elections '25, EP '24).
* With 10,1% lowest vote share in a parliamentary election for the liberal party Venstre in its 156 years of existence. Third parliamentary election out of four with losses (general elections '22 and '15). Fifth national election in a row with losses (local elections '25 & '21, EP '24, general election '22).
* As in 2022-election: The parliament has the largest number of parties ever (12) + North Atlantic seats.
* First general election ever (i.e. since 1849), where no party wins more than 25% of votes. Never has the largest party been so small (21,8%).
* It was the worst result (84 seats) for the left ("red bloc") since 2005/2007-elections, when they won a total of 81 seats.
@RitzauBorgen @reuters @reutersworld @BBCWorld @business @TheEconomist

[Aaron Rupar @atrupar]

Powell: "If my successor is not confirmed by the end of my term as chair, I would serve as chair pro tem until he is confirmed"

[Olivier Blanchard @ojblanchard1]

RIP Chris Sims.

I was enormously influenced by Chris. My own, perhaps idiosyncratic take:

His main contribution came at a time when macroeconomists had constructed the first wave of big macroeconometric models. They were constructed piece by piece, a consumption block, an investment block, and so on. Each piece looked reasonable, but when assembled together, the implied macro dynamics were all wrong.

What Chris did was to turn things around, namely argue that one had to start from the actual macro dynamics, the so called VARs, and show how, with minimal identification conditions (leading to "structural" VARs), they could be used to suggest the dynamic effects of various shocks, dynamics that the structural models had to replicate.

To say that his approach was influential would be to understate its influence. Today, a model that did not fit the VAR evidence, would be simply dismissed.

[Markus K. Brunnermeier @MarkusEconomist]

R.I.P. Christopher Sims (21 Oct. 1942 - 14 March 2026)
- a giant in macroeconomics and one of the finest human beings I have ever met -

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

To watch in the next 24 hours: Japan is on alert for a possible release of its strategic petroleum reserve, the world's 3rd largest (after China and US).

Tokyo may act alone, without US/IEA involvement.

The American SPR is very well known; so it's the Chinese -- but Japan has its own massive oil stockpile, split in 10 sites (ground tanks, underground tanks, floating tanks and rock caverns). In total, the governmet holds ~260m barrels (vs ~415m for the US).

Plus, Tokyo mandates private sector stockpiling, and it has joint agreements with Saudi Arabia, UAE and Kuwait to store additional crude in the country. Those deals bring another ~178m barrels.

According to official data, Japan holds in total about 440 million barels in stockpile, enough for 204 days of its imports (most from the Middle Easts).

[Andreas Steno Larsen @AndreasSteno]

The dark side of AI - increasingly realistic scams that are difficult to detect

Over the past 1–2 days, it has come to my attention that someone has been attempting to raise funds for a blockchain project in Switzerland using my name and my face, including real-time and recorded AI-generated avatars. These individuals appear to be operating through the Crypto Valley Association network in Zug (the CVA in Zug is a solid organisation, and I am in touch on how to stop it, FYI).

I have also been informed that they may have even paid for membership using a credit card issued in my name.

If anyone in my network has been contacted by these individuals, please reach out to me directly so we can investigate further. If we gather sufficient evidence, I will consider reporting this to the authorities.

This is a troubling example of the increasingly realistic misuse of AI. Unfortunately, I am experiencing more and more highly convincing impersonation attempts, and this appears to be part of that growing trend. It highlights the serious and concerning downside of advanced AI technologies.

[Federal Reserve @federalreserve]

Today we celebrate the 100th birthday of Alan Greenspan, the 13th chairman of the Federal Reserve, who guided U.S. monetary policy for over 18 years (1987-2006). Appointed by four different presidents, Chairman Greenspan served five terms.

During his tenure, Chairman Greenspan navigated the Fed through significant economic events, including the 1987 stock market crash and the aftermath of the 9/11 terrorist attacks. The longest official economic expansion in U.S. history occurred while he was chairman.

Join us in honoring the contributions of Chairman Greenspan to the Federal Reserve System and the nation's economic stability.

#FedHistory #Greenspan100 #CentralBanking

https://t.co/sDWP1bKrWF

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

OIL MARKET (very unscientific) poll.

Brent opening tonight (closed Fri at $72.87 a barrel)

[Jon Hartley @Jon_Hartley_]

A terrific primer on wealth taxes

[Mathias Bergqvist Sørensen @mathiassorensen]

Morten Andersen fortalte Adam Vinatieri, at den tidligere Patriots- og Colts-kicker er kommet i Hall of Fame ⭐️

[Joe Weisenthal @TheStalwart]

NYT reports that the framework agreement will establish US sovereignty over some small pockets of Greenland, for it to build bases. https://t.co/55gBHRTan4

[Mikael Olai Milhøj @mikaelmilhoj]

Overvismanden forklarer meget fint, hvorfor differentieret moms er at stikke blår i øjnene på vælgerne.

Idéen om et direkte tilskud til borgerne er i min optik et langt klogere økonomisk valg end differentieret moms. Så hellere gøre den større end at indføre differentieret moms.

[Otto Brøns-Petersen @OttoBrons]

Hvis jeg var på den fordelingspolitiske venstrefløj, ville jeg være oprørt over de tiltag - diff. moms og checks til særligt udvalgte - der nu florerer.

Det er 3. verdenspolitik. En af grundene til den store omfordeling i DK er brugen af relativt effektive redskaber: …

[Reads with Ravi @readswithravi]

Umberto Eco, who owned 50,000 books, had this to say about home libraries:

“It is foolish to think that you have to read all the books you buy, as it is foolish to criticize those who buy more books than they will ever be able to read. It would be like saying that you should use all the cutlery or glasses or screwdrivers or drill bits you bought before buying new ones.

“There are things in life that we need to always have plenty of supplies, even if we will only use a small portion.

“If, for example, we consider books as medicine, we understand that it is good to have many at home rather than a few: when you want to feel better, then you go to the ‘medicine closet’ and choose a book. Not a random one, but the right book for that moment. That’s why you should always have a nutrition choice!

“Those who buy only one book, read only that one and then get rid of it. They simply apply the consumer mentality to books, that is, they consider them a consumer product, a good. Those who love books know that a book is anything but a commodity.”

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

CHART OF THE DAY: It's one of the most interesting features of the energy market in 2025 -- a massive split in performance between Big Oil and Crude Oil.

Big Oil (XOM, CVX, SHEL, BP and TTE) is up ~5%-20% year-to-date, while Brent is down ~18% over the same period.

[Mikael Olai Milhøj @mikaelmilhoj]

Indtil videre 74 dage med en strømmarkedspris på over 1 kr. pr. kWh mellem 17-18. Det er mere end i både 2024 og 2023. 2022 var helt crazy, men vi kan også nå at slå 2021. Fænomenet fandtes ikke før 2021.