PPI 6.3% y/y, gasoline +20.3% in a month. That is a hot print, and $BTC paid for it with a 3.4% drop under $81k.
The trade: this pushes the Fed cut further out. Watch funding for the flip, if longs start paying to stay, we flush lower.
$ZK 1h
Buyers broke prior highs and swept the range top, but OI is crowded and not accelerating. The base at 0.01545-0.01560 is where I want to see who's paying.
Lose 0.014854 and sellers take over the bids.
Pullback into 0.0160 first, then the base decides.
$BTC is pinned on the ETF cost basis near $81.5K, and Glassnode flags a fat long-liquidation cluster sitting just underneath it. Two clean holds so far, but shorts stacked above $85K need a squeeze to pay. I expect that support to give first.
New Momentum Algo entry: $MEGA LONG.
Entry 0.04643
Target 0.04885217 / 0.05127435
Stop 0.04400783
2R at 10x
Alerts like this fire daily in CryptoTraders. Link in bio.
That 53.7% single-wallet long is the number to watch. It's live on Hyperliquid right now, and the room tracks it as it moves. I keep the running book on my profile.
$AAVE tracked book barely budged in 6h, and that's the tell. Still 88.1% long across 8 wallets holding $13.9M gross. But the biggest long holds 53.7% of that side, top 3 hold 91.3%. Six wallets long, two short, and the crowd isn't moving. My read flips if the top wallet trims.
$SPY 1h
768.08 decides it. Lose that and sellers keep the range low, no reclaim, no bounce.
If buyers hold, a relief pop can tag 776.42 (50 EMA) over the next few hours, but that is a hurdle, not a flip.
Invalidation: 768.08
Sweep first, or move first?
$SPX 1h
Sellers keep printing lower highs under both EMAs, and the BOS below 0.360 says the bounce is the setup, not the reversal.
Rally into 0.3643-0.3669 is where I want offers, with 0.3466 and 0.3435 the downside magnets.
Invalidation: 0.3669
Does 0.3669 reject or reclaim?
$TTWO 1h
Sellers broke support and swept 196.92. The bounce is just a retrace into supply at 204.0-204.6, not a reclaim.
Rejection there sends it back to 200.65, then 196.92.
Invalidation: 205.07
Where are you leaning into this, long or short?
16 wallets long $NEAR, 4 short. That is the whole book at 93.7% long, $71.2M gross, and it has not budged in 6h. Longs cut $2.2M, shorts $168K, so the crowd is trimming into its own conviction. Top wallet holds 42.6% of the long side. Watch the next long_delta print.
$WAL 1h
Most are chasing this extension. The tradeable read is the pullback into 0.0452, where buyers have to prove the breakout.
Above the range the upside is open expansion, no defined target yet.
Invalidation: 0.0398
See the same structure?
$BTC is holding the ETF cost basis near $81.5k while a whale dumps 1,074 BTC for 36,159 ETH and Wintermute flags ETF outflows. Spot is $83,382, so the floor is doing its job. I expect the bid to hold and ETH to lead.
81.9% of the tracked smart-money book is long $ETH, 25 wallets against 15, 439M gross. Nobody left to convert. Longs cut 16.4M in 6h, shorts barely moved 1.5M, so the crowd is trimming, not flipping. If ETH dips, the smaller side collects.
$TRUTH 1h
Broke 0.016 and ran, but OI is stacked and not accelerating. The move is late, not fresh.
Best case is a pullback into 0.016-0.01606, the old swing high plus fast EMA. Hold there and upside stays open.
Invalidation: 0.014512
Does the sweep come before the move?
$SOXL 1h
Sellers swept 116.21, price is rebounding under the falling 50 and 200 EMAs.
Crowded shorts make a squeeze to 128.74 likely before sellers reload, and a rejection there points back at 116.21.
$TTWO 1h
Sellers broke 208.93 and flushed the 198.37 low. That sweep usually pulls a bounce into 209.36-210.45 before the next leg.
Down there, shorts are paying instead of longs.
Invalidation: 210.45
Which level are you watching here?
$XTZ 1h
Buyers swept 0.2932 and displaced through 0.328. Fresh longs are positioned for continuation, not a fade.
A dip into 0.328 should get bid and set up a retest of 0.3421, then 0.3452.
Invalidation: 0.3245
$BTC slipped under $83k on $434M of forced longs, not fresh shorts piling in. Funding is still positive and ETF holders sold a net 8.5k BTC over the week, so the crowd is long and offside. I expect another leg lower before funding resets.