Joe Fowler

Revenue & product leader #saas #opensource | @HashiCorp , @NewRelic , Monitor/GBN , Msft/Xbox , Napster | #livemusic #snowboarding #climbing

[Hamidreza Azizi @HamidRezaAz]

A Day 3 recap of the war (with focus on Iranian strategic narrative):

🔹CENTCOM confirms that U.S. strikes on Iranian missile bases used B-1 bombers. The U.S. is trying to dismantle Iran’s fortified underground missile facilities.

🔹Iranian reports suggest Tehran has rejected multiple mediation attempts. Tehran’s apparent assessment is that it can sustain high-intensity conflict for 60-90 days, making early ceasefire acceptance strategically disadvantageous.

🔹Ali Larijani explicitly framed the war as a contest of endurance, stating Iran – unlike the United States – is prepared for a prolonged conflict. The objective appears to be altering Washington’s cost-benefit calculations over time.

🔹Iranian strategic discourse increasingly describes the conflict as a “war without rules” or a “game without red lines,” signaling deliberate unpredictability intended to reshape deterrence dynamics after leadership decapitation failed to halt Iran’s response.

🔹A related concept emerging in Iranian messaging is operating “one level above” adversary actions, i.e., delivering escalatory responses even to indirect threats in order to redefine escalation thresholds.

🔹This logic appears reflected in Iranian strikes toward British facilities in Cyprus, interpreted domestically as retaliation for London allowing U.S. access to Diego Garcia despite not joining offensive operations.

🔹One of the most consequential developments was the loss of three U.S. F-15 aircraft, initially claimed by Iran as shootdowns but later attributed to friendly fire from Kuwaiti air defenses, highlighting the growing risks of coalition battlefield congestion.

🔹Analysts close to Iranian security circles describe a layered missile strategy: first targeting radar systems, then launching low-cost drones and missiles to exhaust air-defense interceptors before deploying advanced weapons later.

🔹Iran’s continuous missile launches therefore appear designed less for immediate damage and more for attritional depletion of U.S. and Israeli defensive systems over time.

🔹Uncertainty over the size and dispersal of Iran’s advanced missile stockpiles may explain intensified U.S. and Israeli strikes against underground facilities and missile infrastructure.

🔹President Pezeshkian expanded emergency authorities across ministries and provincial administrations to ensure continuity of governance, deepening wartime decentralization already initiated before the conflict.

🔹Israel’s targeting pattern has become clearer: strikes now heavily focus on intelligence ministries, police headquarters, IRGC district bases, and internal security institutions, suggesting systematic erosion of regime coercive capacity.

🔹Parallel strikes against western border regions and Kurdistan province have fueled Iranian fears that external actors may seek to enable insurgent infiltration as an alternative to direct ground invasion.

🔹Iran has responded by striking areas in Iraqi Kurdistan while increasing pressure along its borders, indicating concern about a potential indirect ground dimension to the war.

🔹Iran-aligned Iraqi resistance factions – including Kataib Hezbollah, Harakat al-Nujaba, and Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada – continue their operations on a limited scale, opening another attritional front against U.S. forces.

🔹Hezbollah formally confirmed its participation, firing rockets toward Haifa, though involvement remains limited due to degraded capabilities and domestic political constraints in Lebanon.

🔹Iranian sources claim prewar coordination between the Quds Force and regional partners defined phased entry into the conflict, suggesting activation of the “axis of resistance” is proceeding gradually rather than simultaneously.

🔹The IRGC has reportedly begun enforcing a de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, warning commercial vessels against transit and threatening missile strikes. This is a major escalation targeting global energy flows.

🔹Simultaneous attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure, including an Aramco facility near Ras Tanura and gas infrastructure in Qatar, indicate an effort to raise global energy prices and increase economic pressure on Washington.

🔹Iranian authorities signaled zero tolerance for dissent. IRGC intelligence warned that actions undermining stability during wartime would be treated as collaboration with the enemy, implying harsh internal repression.

����Negotiation signals remain contradictory. While Trump suggested a potential deal was possible, Larijani publicly rejected negotiations, reinforcing Tehran’s view that talks can occur only after strategic calculations shift.

🔹Iran’s sustained missile tempo against Israel appears designed to impose psychological as well as military pressure, keeping populations under prolonged shelter conditions while conserving firepower for a longer conflict.

🔹Overall, Day 3 shows the war evolving into simultaneous military, economic, psychological, and regional escalation far beyond bilateral confrontation.

🔹The key question now is whether expanding proxy involvement and energy warfare will force external powers into deeper participation or instead accelerate pressure for negotiated containment.

---
P.S: Not sure how long I can keep doing this!

[NBC Sports @NBCSports]

South Korea’s Choi Gaon strikes GOLD in the women’s halfpipe! 🥇

[Joe Fowler @joefowler]

Faith in God-like large language models is waning : From LLM to SLM : 
https://t.co/P7V87j2iFM
From The Economist

[Dreamflow @DreamflowApp]

The #DreamflowFriendsChallenge is live!
Runs Sept 1–5 ⏰

Build a one-page party game, post a demo video on Twitter/X or LinkedIn with #DreamflowFriendsChallenge, and you could win a free month of Dreamflow Pro 🎉

All the details in this thread 👇
https://t.co/FhOYl3qXT1

[Joe Fowler @joefowler]

The dark horse of AI labs (from @TheEconomist) https://t.co/qN3lBi3WzH

[Joe Fowler @joefowler]

The Urgency of Interpretability of AI models - for understanding, reuse and implications https://t.co/DT7x7qyfH8

[Joe Fowler @joefowler]

https://t.co/jLnwq6ELkZ

[Joe Fowler @joefowler]

@iamstephenwest Great episode! More Camus please! 🙏

[Joe Fowler @joefowler]

https://t.co/Qzc6Ny2EcP

[The Cultural Tutor @culturaltutor]

If it even matters, one of the subtlest (and most misunderstood) nuances of the English language is the difference between "which" and "that".

They are similar — both are used to introduce additional information in a sentence — but serve different purposes.

[Joe Fowler @joefowler]

https://t.co/lqsgzrZKFq from @TheEconomist

[Marty Baron @PostBaron]

On political endorsement https://t.co/e5OTZhylIE

This is cowardice, with democracy as its casualty. @realdonaldtrump will see this as an invitation to further intimidate owner @jeffbezos (and others). Disturbing spinelessness at an institution famed for courage.

[Joe Fowler @joefowler]

AI offers an intriguing new way to diagnose mental-health conditions https://t.co/PXwhsFcLcZ from @TheEconomist

[Joe Fowler @joefowler]

Ever wish you could have an automatic Shazam of the music the Mission is consistently graced with? Me neither. But it exists!

https://t.co/dpdB7KTpD9

[Joe Fowler @joefowler]

Geothermal energy could outperform nuclear power https://t.co/XlQ1UIl2o0 from @TheEconomist

[stephen west @iamstephenwest]

New episode just dropped. Hope you love it and have a great week! :)

We talk about Paulo Freire’s Pedagogy of the Oppressed. His critique of the banking model of education. The importance of critical consciousness. His Existentialist influence. The dialectic between oppression and liberation. The problem-posing model of education. The role of dialogue in learning and the co-creation of knowledge. Marx’s influence on Freire. The flexibility of Freire’s pedagogy. And some responses to critics of Freire.

https://t.co/SdsYJgMhj5

[Alex Cole @acnewsitics]

Fun Fact: There are 1.2 million Haitian Americans living in the United States, and over 300,000 of them can vote in Florida.

[David Rumsey @DavidRumseyMaps]

"The Speed of the Earth" installation at Burning Man 2024 by Kevin Kelly and David Rumsey. A nearly mile long line of 30 solar powered LED strobes pulsing at the rotational speed of the earth, 784 mph. Lights use GPS to determine when to flash. Drone video at 400 ft elevation.

[Joe Fowler @joefowler]

https://t.co/R1J3aa1jav

[Joe Fowler @joefowler]

The Americas had all the fun
stuff. :)

[Xavi Ruiz @xruiztru]

After Columbus's 1492 voyage, the Columbian Exchange sparked a global food revolution.

Europe got potatoes and tomatoes, while the Americas received wheat and sugar.

This trade reshaped diets and economies but also unleashed diseases that devastated Indigenous communities.