Treasury seasonality points to further weakness ahead:
The median monthly return on Treasuries during October was -0.71% between 2016 and 2025, the 2nd-worst monthly performance of the year.
This is only behind September’s median return of -0.86% over this period.
By comparison, November recorded the strongest median monthly return at +0.69%.
Meanwhile, the 10Y Treasury Note futures are down -2.85% so far this month, on track for their worst September performance since 2022.
At the same time, global government bonds are down -2.1%, putting them on track for their worst September performance since 2023.
History says Treasuries are likely to face more pressure.
Australia’s financial markets regulator searched Binance’s offices in an ongoing probe of the crypto exchange’s now-defunct local derivatives business, per Bloomberg