John Smith

investor. always traveling. bruce is the real one to follow.

[John Smith @john_nyc_smith]

@miko_invests @jimcramer Inverse Cramer

[John Smith @john_nyc_smith]

@thatllbeano we shall see

[John Smith @john_nyc_smith]

$NBIS bottom is in. Purchased more.

[John Smith @john_nyc_smith]

@DschlopesIsBack Only a lizard would do such a thing

[John Smith @john_nyc_smith]

@bennybigbull Good take

[John Smith @john_nyc_smith]

$NBIS deep dive. Pin this post. We're checking back on it August 31st.

Yeah, it's been a brutal week. Closed today at $195.19, down ~35% from the June highs. I lost $24K today alone. Since the June 22nd peak I've given back over $143K on paper. I'm telling you my numbers so you know I'm not talking my book from the sidelines. I've watched every red candle and I haven't sold a share. Still up 387% on the position. Here's why I'm not moving.

What actually happened: Bloomberg reported Meta wants to sell excess compute ("Meta Compute") and the whole neocloud space puked. NBIS and CRWV got hit the hardest. The market read it as "biggest customer becomes biggest competitor."

What the market is missing:

1. Meta signed a deal worth up to $27B with Nebius in March. $12B dedicated capacity plus a $15B optional allocation. You don't hand a competitor $27B. Meta reselling excess compute is not the same as Meta building a full-stack AI cloud, and Meta's capacity buildout increasingly runs THROUGH neoclouds like Nebius, not around them.

2. Demand still massively exceeds supply. Contracted power went from ~1GW last August to 3.5GW+ today, targeting 4GW. 1.2GW locked in Pennsylvania. New data centers in the UK, Finland, and France. Nvidia has $2B invested. These are not the fundamentals of a broken story.

3. Short interest is sitting around 24% of float. Read that again. Nearly a quarter of this stock is borrowed and sold. Every squeeze needs a spark, and the Q2 print lands inside this window.

4. Nasdaq-100 inclusion in June means passive flows are now structural buyers. Aschenbrenner's fund holds a 5.6% stake. Smart money is positioned.

My call: we may tap the $180 range first. Shorts will press it, weak hands will fold, and that's where the last shares get shaken loose. Then this thing turns on a dime.

And before anyone calls $300 by August crazy, this exact stock just ran $200 to $300 in five weeks. In May. Without a squeeze setup like this one. Now we're back at the same launch pad, except this time there's 24% short interest as fuel and a Q2 earnings print as the spark. I think we see $300+ by August 31st.

This stock went from $44 to $300 in a year. It didn't do that by accident, and the thesis didn't change because of one Bloomberg headline.

Pin it. See you in August.

Not financial advice. I'm long, I'm down $143K from the peak, and I'm not selling.

[John Smith @john_nyc_smith]

@TheLongInvest If you can tolerate the swings you will be rewarded. Bullish.

[John Smith @john_nyc_smith]

@babyfolio always

[John Smith @john_nyc_smith]

@MrBeast 3.5 million pennies ($35,000).

[John Smith @john_nyc_smith]

@Collect @LoganPaul Money can’t buy class

[John Smith @john_nyc_smith]

@MilkRoadAI Yes

[John Smith @john_nyc_smith]

@babyfolio We’re headed to $1000

[John Smith @john_nyc_smith]

@babyfolio Yes

[John Smith @john_nyc_smith]

@TMZ Good. That kid is such a low t soy beta.

[John Smith @john_nyc_smith]

@kunoo A low T soy beta who has zero taste. Bullish.

[John Smith @john_nyc_smith]

@elonmusk If AOC did this every time she talked she would be waaaaayyyyy more popular

[John Smith @john_nyc_smith]

@RJCcapital $NBIS

[John Smith @john_nyc_smith]

@ant_trading1 25% of port

[John Smith @john_nyc_smith]

@GavinNewsom @realDonaldTrump can you and @elonmusk look into the blatant homelessness fraud going on in LA and California? Asking for a friend.

[John Smith @john_nyc_smith]

The bull case for $NBIS.

Quick context first, since the Fable shutdown just happened. On June 12, the Commerce Department told Anthropic to cut off Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for any foreign national, and because that sweep covered foreign nationals everywhere, Anthropic just killed both models for everybody. Export-control action, tied to a claimed jailbreak. The part that matters: their two best models went dark overnight. Lesson for anyone building on a single closed API is that your most capable dependency can vanish with zero notice.

Here's why I read that as bullish for NBIS.

Model-access risk now favors neutral compute. This is the first time the feds have yanked a frontier model offline. If you're routing real agent workflows through one closed US frontier API, that's a wake-up call. The fix is diversifying toward open-weight models you can self-host, and that means renting GPU capacity you control instead of leaning on someone else's API. Nebius is pure compute layer, fully model-agnostic. It wins demand from that shift no matter which model comes out on top.

The international angle is where it gets sharp for Nebius specifically. The whole mechanism here was cutting off foreign nationals. Europe and India are now treating access to US models as an operational risk. Nebius is Amsterdam-based with a real European and international footprint, positioned as full-stack, sovereign-friendly AI infrastructure. If non-US builders decide they can't anchor on a frontier model Washington can flip off, they need alternative models and neutral infrastructure to run them. Nebius sells the second thing, straight into that exact customer base.
And the fundamentals were already there to carry the story. Q1 2026 revenue up 6.8x to $399M, almost all of it AI Cloud, record pipeline, bigger deals, plus the Nasdaq-100 add and the Meta deal. Fable just hands the "compute you control" thesis a fresh, concrete catalyst.

Bottom line: single-vendor model risk pushes demand toward controllable, neutral compute, and Nebius is well placed for the international slice of that.