johncarmean

Invented Pretelligence™ a multi-domain early warning system patents pending. Creative. Emmy-nominated. Amazon Influencer earn from qualified purchases allegedly

[johncarmean @johncarmean]

Full piece: https://t.co/XGIZ3lB3vV #RiskManagement #IntelligenceFailure"

[johncarmean @johncarmean]

Just published. On why this pattern repeats, what the codebreakers at Bletchley did differently, and why most modern risk dashboards have become confidence machines. #riskmanagement #intelligencefailure

[johncarmean @johncarmean]

The 9/11 Commission called it "a failure of imagination."

The Barr Report on SVB: supervisors saw the pieces but did not turn them into an urgent, escalated picture.

FERC on Texas Uri: 40% of generators ignored the winterization recommendations from the 2011 report.

[johncarmean @johncarmean]

Same pattern, different decade.

Yom Kippur 1973: a junior officer filed a memo on Oct 1 calling the Egyptian buildup preparation for war. Overruled as "low probability." War began 5 days later.

SVB 2023: examiners flagged the risks in 2021. Bank failed in 2023.

[johncarmean @johncarmean]

Roberta Wohlstetter, Bancroft Prize 1962, on Pearl Harbor:

"We failed to anticipate Pearl Harbor not for want of the relevant materials, but because of a plethora of irrelevant ones."

The signal was buried in the noise. The integration was missing.

[johncarmean @johncarmean]

What was missing wasn't data. The data was there.

What was missing was a method for noticing when one signal disagreed with another, and refusing to reconcile the disagreement away.

That method is the actual intelligence. Everything else is reporting.

[johncarmean @johncarmean]

"The warnings were there."

After every institutional disaster of the last century, the same sentence appears in the postmortem.

Pearl Harbor. Yom Kippur. 9/11. SVB. Texas grid 2021.

Five different events, eight decades, one identical forensic profile.

[johncarmean @johncarmean]

Next 10 observations measure whether the remaining 2 decoupled signals also move
If credit card delinquencies climb → consumer cracks
If GPR re-elevates → headlines catch up to oil-vol
The cursor will advance. The data will say which moved first
https://t.co/Neq2UB7VlL

[johncarmean @johncarmean]

2/5

UAE quits OPEC effective May 1.

Fed holds rates with 4 dissents (most divided since 1992).

Brent ~$118.

Powell: elevated oil will push inflation up.

Four events in 36 hours.

[johncarmean @johncarmean]

State vector 90% ALERT 10% EMERGENCY near zero on the calmer states
The model reweighted from "this is deepening" to "this is elevated and persistent" 8 days ago
The Fed put 4 dissents on the record yesterday
They stopped pretending the path forward is settled

[johncarmean @johncarmean]

After 100. Yesterday was day 100 of continuous EMERGENCY signal in Pretelligence™. Today three of five decoupled signals started moving for the first time in 4 weeks. New post: https://t.co/Neq2UB7VlL

[johncarmean @johncarmean]

The Devil Wears Prada 2 a parable for regime change 👠
Print collapsed for 15 years before the headlines caught up. Luxury is there now.
Most will watch for the clothes. Some see the warning🚨
https://t.co/5DiqJGPkUP
#Pretelligence #RegimeChange

[johncarmean @johncarmean]

6 cruise ships stuck in the Persian Gulf for 47 days. One just crossed the Strait of Hormuz empty, racing to save its May schedule.
In Orlando (45 min from the world's busiest cruise port) new piece on costs of the unpredicted:
https://t.co/9Oxp8OGhbd

[johncarmean @johncarmean]

Pretelligence™ changed its trajectory signal this morning for the first time in 85 consecutive days.
Both domains still at EMERGENCY. Summer energy window opening now.
https://t.co/vpC3GyUZUf
#NaturalGas #EnergyMarkets #PredictiveAnalytics #RiskManagement #Pretelligence

[johncarmean @johncarmean]

The algorithm’s data window closed April 10.
Blockade declared April 12.
None of it is in the data yet.
That’s the second live validation event in six weeks.
https://t.co/ddBOR3IFAg
#Pretelligence #Hormuz

[johncarmean @johncarmean]

Last night: dual EMERGENCY. Both financial & energy systems. Easter Sunday. Markets closed.

This morning:
S&P up Oil @ $112
Ceasefire rumors Everyone exhaling
The 7 decoupled metrics still haven't moved
The gap Still open
https://t.co/puW3Zne9y3

#Pretelligence #EnergyMarkets

[johncarmean @johncarmean]

happy birthday usa 🇺🇸

https://t.co/83xatqzyy7

[johncarmean @johncarmean]

@politicofolitic @DisneyFoodBlog it was actually quite charming

[johncarmean @johncarmean]

My “How to Land a Joke” remix of the iconic Tina Fey George Clooney roast and Amal Clooney kudos has been a big hit on Instagram this past week. #tinafey #amalclooney #georgeclooney #howtolandajoke

https://t.co/TtWOJuBMGX