Prof. John Clancy

Visiting Prof. Birmingham City Uni Business Sch; former Leader, Birmingham City Council; former solicitor; 25 yrs a comprehensive school teacher; genealogist.

[Prof. John Clancy @johnclancy]

How Birmingham City Council went ‘bankrupt’ being unnecessarily forced to pay hundreds of £millions into its pension fund to pay off a deficit which never existed. It was always in surplus. Labour didn’t listen. They’re not listening now.
https://t.co/o4SV6XlrDV

[Prof David Bailey @dgbailey]

Last orders? What the should the Chancellor John Healey do in the budget to save Britain’s pubs? New blog + Phil Tomlinson: https://t.co/WHGRDLg8uk @CAMRA_Official @cssjournal1 @AcadSocSciences @regstud @BISmemberSec

[Prof. John Clancy @johnclancy]

“The UK cannot afford to be left out of Made in Europe, and its EV mandate needs a reality check.” @dgbailey’s blog today on BlogsFromTheBlackstuff https://t.co/y2GmVCr5SM

[Prof. John Clancy @johnclancy]

My comments included in national coverage of Glasgow Council Pension Fund's just-declared, record £12Bn *funding* surplus. It's amassed almost 60% more than it will need to pay out for pensions. The Canary in the mine: UK-wide surplus is £200B of taxpayers' money if repeated across LGPS, as @dgbailey & I warned 18ms ago.
https://t.co/c3NAUwhQzY

[Prof. John Clancy @johnclancy]

The problem is that the whole LGPS scheme’s long-term investment returns are demonstrably above 7% over 25, 30 and 35 years. That includes two massive crashes and many lean year periods. But the scheme managers have, overall, assumed future returns would and will be 5.4% or less when liabilities were calculated in each of the last 15 years’ valuations. Hence taxpayer contributions were unnecessarily hiked execessively, or nor reduced substantially enough. That’s why there are mega-surpluses all over the place which won’t go away without several years of 0% contributions. Or for direct intervention by government to return directly to taxpayer. Glasgow cut taxpayer contributions to just 6%, but they’ve still ended up with a £12B 60% surplus!!

[Prof. John Clancy @johnclancy]

National Coverage of Local Government Pension Scheme this morning, with my comments on Glasgow's just-declared record £12Bn *funding* surplus. 156% funded, even over-prudently assuming 5% future investment returns. Excellent, detailed coverage from @PatrickTooher. https://t.co/c3NAUwhQzY
Ridiculous, nonsensical non-denial denial from HM Treasury. What on Earth are they trying to hide from their own chancellor and PM? The fact that they should have spotted the taxpayer-owned likely now £200 billion LGPS surplus before now?
Glasgow is the canary in the mine, telling us how big this scandal is going to get.
The whole UK scheme had £517B in assets last March. If Glasgow's 158% funding was matched across the scheme, its total pensions bill would be £327B, and so a surplus of £190B of taxpayers' money. That was last March, it's obviously likely now to be over £200B. and Glasgow's share of that likely £20 billion.

The biggest yearly loss Glasgow PF has suffered in the last two crashes in 2009 and 2003 was -20%, followed by immediate recovery the following year.

The surplus isn't going away, HMT. In Glasgow or across the UK.

The piece also points out what we've been saying for some time: the average annual payout from these pensions is little more than £5,000 a year: gold-plated, they aren't.

[Prof David Bailey @dgbailey]

Just out @RegionalStudies + Paul Hildreth: ‘Putting place first: towards a new vision for UK industrial strategy’ @regstud @RSAEurope @cssjournal1 @BISmemberSec https://t.co/9hOUi2RUYX

[Prof David Bailey @dgbailey]

Last orders? Pub closures, policy & the future of the public house in the UK; latest @cssjournal1 paper + Dieter Kogler & Phil Tomlinson. @UoB_Business @AcadSocSciences @regstud @BISmemberSec @CAMRA_Official https://t.co/1BvCwlUssd

[Prof David Bailey @dgbailey]

Last orders? Pub closures, policy & the future of the public house in the UK… New @cssjournal1 paper just out with Dieter Kogler & Phil Tomlinson. I’m off for a 🍺 in a third space to reflect on it. Cheers. @AcadSocSciences @regstud @BISmemberSec https://t.co/3p7er3FTbJ

[Prof David Bailey @dgbailey]

The Cat is Back. Reflections on the new Jaguar Type 01. New blog. https://t.co/6FIsy6JMDR @UoB_Business @AutoExpress @autocar @jjpjolly @Theothebald

[Prof. John Clancy @johnclancy]

The Cat is Back: Reflections on the new Jaguar Type 01 @dgbailey's blog today. His verdict on the Jag Type 1 EV, and, more importantly, what it represents for the auto business and JLR. https://t.co/NM0gkp9IYA

[Prof. John Clancy @johnclancy]

Relax the ZEV Mandate. And Fix the EV Transition Properly. @dgbailey's blog today: https://t.co/If6Pj2MSdq
"@RichParkerLab @MayorWestMids is right.
"..EVs accounted for only 26.2% of registrations across the first nine months of 2026, compared with a 33% mandate target. That gap tells us something pretty important.
"The ZEV mandate should therefore be relaxed, to 50% by 2030, with a more gradual glide path to 2035."