John Humphreys

Chief Economist for the Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance

[John Humphreys @JohnHumphreys99]

I’m back!!

Last week my X account was hacked. After a week of wrangling, I’ve now got it back… at least for the moment. Touch wood.

Apologies to everybody who received the hacker spam. I’ve already deleted 100 of the hacker posts, and still have thousands more to go.

[John Humphreys @JohnHumphreys99]

This week's livestream was a great chat with @DerekFranc90653 about the hidden problem with Labor's tax changes -- where they tax your real gains, but don't allow you to offset your real losses. This is a serious problem.

https://t.co/9roeaXyyOZ

[Australian Taxpayers' Alliance @AusTaxpayers]

Come join @genetunny & @JohnHumphreys99 for our latest episode of "Death & Taxes" podcast, with special guest Derek Francis... talking about the government's tax troubles, runaway inflation & comparing state budgets.

[John Humphreys @JohnHumphreys99]

Labor's new tax disaster, with Derek Francis || #47 https://t.co/UAsqKAWu28

[John Humphreys @JohnHumphreys99]

@Jackat19 Your first graphic shows the operating balance, which excludes net capital spending. It also shows the wrong year's balance for WA.

Full balance sheet is useful to know, but realistically the government probably won't use their non-financial assets to pay their liabilities.

[John Humphreys @JohnHumphreys99]

Australian government net debt is $556 billion, or 19% of GDP... which is fairly low by international standards.

Two problems with that statistic.

First, net debt does not include the government's superannuation liabilities. The better measure is "net financial liabilities" and that is currently $904 billion, or 31% of GDP.

Second, the above stats don't include state government debt. If we include the states, then the debt is currently $1.5 trillion (52% of GDP) and on track to hit $1.9 trillion (54%) by 2030.

That's still lower than many other countries, and it's not a crisis... but it's not great either, and it's heading in the wrong direction.

[John Humphreys @JohnHumphreys99]

Tonight our livestream guest is @DerekFranc90653, who has recently uncovered a major mistake at the heart of the government's tax plans.

Join us at 8pm tonight.

[Australian Taxpayers' Alliance @AusTaxpayers]

Tonight on the “Death & Taxes” podcast, Gene & John will be joined by economist & trader Derek Francis, who recently made waves by pointing out a serious unintended problem with the government’s tax changes.

Live tonight at 8pm AEST.

Links in the comments.

[John Humphreys @JohnHumphreys99]

@Jackat19 I've shown the net liabilities for all Australian governments. Are you suggesting I should selectively pick just some sorts of debt, and just for a sub-section of jurisdictions?

[John Humphreys @JohnHumphreys99]

@Jackat19 Those are operating balances, not fiscal balances.

The operating balance doesn't include net capital spending.

Also, your graphic mentions 2026/27 in the title, but the WA result is for 2025/26. The WA operating balance in 2026/27 was +$2.4b.

[John Humphreys @JohnHumphreys99]

We've now finished "budget season" for all levels of government, and not a single jurisdiction has reported a fiscal surplus for 2026/27.

To be fair, WA had a surplus last year, and is expecting to get back to surplus next year... so they are leading the country in fiscal responsibility.

The TAS and NT governments have also predicted that they will run a fiscal surplus in 2 & 3 years respectively. Time will tell whether they can actually make it happen.

[John Humphreys @JohnHumphreys99]

@TinyPorsena It provides a consistent benchmark that allows comparisons across time and jurisdictions.

[John Humphreys @JohnHumphreys99]

@clarkes Your AI may have assumed that the Future Fund is a NFPC or a FPC… which are excluded from the “net financial liability” measure. Future Fund is actually in the GGS.

[John Humphreys @JohnHumphreys99]

@EBlackwell6280 While TAS, NT & NSW are cutting real per-capital spending… The QLD government is increasing it. Disappointing.

[John Humphreys @JohnHumphreys99]

@clarkes The future fund is included in the “net financial liabilities” metric.

[John Humphreys @JohnHumphreys99]

@LibertariansNSW Today's budget papers show a 25/26 operating deficit of $3 billion, and a 26/27 operating deficit of $2.3 billion. Ouch.

[John Humphreys @JohnHumphreys99]

The NSW Nationals may not exist for much longer. They have less than nine months to change their fate.

[AusPoll @AusPoll6]

🚨 NEW: New South Wales (state) voting intention

🟥 ALP: 32% (-2)
🟧 ONP: 27% (+6)
🟦 L/NP: 20% (-3)
🟩 GRN: 13% (-2)
⬛️ OTH: 8% (+1)

DemosAU/PremierNational | 15-18 Jun | n=1038 | +/- 24 Feb-4 Mar

[John Humphreys @JohnHumphreys99]

Another problem with the government's CGT policy explained by @parnellpalme in the SMH today. Their tax policy is a shambles, and should be withdrawn... at least until they've thought it through more carefully.

https://t.co/CkPvww3l8M

[John Humphreys @JohnHumphreys99]

@_foqyeah @RennickGBR @BlondeRose I’ve always enjoyed my chats/debates with Gerard in the past, and would be happy to do a public chat. I suspect we will agree more than we disagree… though the disagreements are perhaps more fun to watch.

[John Humphreys @JohnHumphreys99]

@VoteLewko @realDonaldTrump Finish it how exactly? What exactly was Trump supposed to do next to achieve regime change?

[Australian Taxpayers' Alliance @AusTaxpayers]

Join our weekly "Death & Taxes" livestream, live now, with special guest Senator Matt Canavan.

[John Humphreys @JohnHumphreys99]

Future of the Nationals, with Matt Canavan https://t.co/2WcNmYQ1DO