John Nelson

Haxee Capitol

[John Nelson @JohnNelson37092]

The 15x P/E looks cheap, but earnings are boosted by one-time gains like marking up investments. Analysts expect EPS to drop about 23% next year, so it’s closer to 19x forward. Free cash flow is also only about $20B after the AI spending. I help run a family office, and we built software. There’s a small feature that runs a diligence report on any stock, breaking down valuation, free cash flow and what growth the price is betting on. Would love to run one on $GOOGL and send it over to get your feedback.

[John Nelson @JohnNelson37092]

Sales grew 49% in Q3, but they posted a surprise loss and gross margin fell from 74% to 57%, as they shifted toward lower-margin branded GLP-1s and spent on international expansion. They also cut their full-year profit outlook. I help run a family office, and we built software. There’s a small feature that runs a diligence report on any stock, breaking down margins, valuation and what growth the price is betting on. Would love to run one on $HIMS and send it over to get your feedback.

[John Nelson @JohnNelson37092]

@davidbateman What do you use to track your silver alongside the rest of your portfolio?

[John Nelson @JohnNelson37092]

@techwithhannahm Dopest shirt

[John Nelson @JohnNelson37092]

@MaxHirsch13 Beast mode!

[John Nelson @JohnNelson37092]

Worth separating the business from the build-out. Amazon brought in about $168B of operating cash over the last year, but around $220B of data center spending pushed free cash flow to roughly -$47B. The real question is whether that spending earns its keep, and returns on capital are only around 8% right now. I help run a family office, and we built software. There’s a small feature that runs a diligence report on any stock, breaking down free cash flow, capex and returns on capital. Would love to run one on $MSFT and send it over to get your feedback.

[John Nelson @JohnNelson37092]

Math checks out, but 100% take rate is the best case. Even then, $651M is under 1% of Tesla’s yearly revenue. The bigger question is how much FSD growth the stock price already assumes. I help run a family office, and we built software. There’s a small feature that runs a diligence report on any stock, breaking down valuation and what growth the price is betting on. Would love to run one on $TSLA and send it over to get your feedback.

[John Nelson @JohnNelson37092]

Conquest buyers are a great sign for demand. The question for the stock is margins: Rivian’s car business still lost $80M at the gross level in Q3, so each extra R2 sale has to start making money for this to show up in the numbers. I help run a family office, and we built software. There’s a small feature that runs a diligence report on any stock, breaking down profitability, cash runway and dilution. Would love to run one on $RIVN and send it over to get your feedback.

[John Nelson @JohnNelson37092]

@StockSavvyShay Love this, thanks Shay!

[John Nelson @JohnNelson37092]

Worth noting the odds aren’t random. They jumped after the board opened an investigation into Huang this week, and the stock is already down nearly 10% since Monday. So some of that 25% hit may already be priced in. I help run a family office, and we built software. There’s a small feature called Diligence that breaks down Nvidia’s management, key risks and what the current price is already assuming. Would love to send it over to you and get your feedback on this.

[John Nelson @JohnNelson37092]

@FinanceLancelot The bailout talk isn’t about Nvidia’s balance sheet. That’s fine. It’s about Nvidia guaranteeing its customers’ financing, like the reported $250B OpenAI backstop. Cheap P/E, sure, but who takes the loss if AI demand cools? Do you think that’s priced in?

[John Nelson @JohnNelson37092]

@owaiskorejo7 Beast mode!

[John Nelson @JohnNelson37092]

@TeleHInvesting Thanks Nick!

[John Nelson @JohnNelson37092]

Yeah, Fiscal’s KPI data is solid. For us the bigger issue was that none of these tools knew what we owned, so we ended up building our own, called Coa Wealth. It shows your cost basis and returns right next to any stock you’re researching. There’s a free trial if you want to compare. What KPIs do you look at most?

[John Nelson @JohnNelson37092]

@JasonTiong @APompliano @claudeai @cfosilvia You gotta check out Coa Wealth

[John Nelson @JohnNelson37092]

@Mispricedstoks @jrouldz What’s pushing you off TIKR? We went through the same search at our family office. The thing that bugged us was that none of them knew what we actually owned.

[John Nelson @JohnNelson37092]

@janscottfrmott @zachmelloh26 Same experience here with advisors. Does Gemini know what you actually hold, or do you have to paste your accounts in each time?

[John Nelson @JohnNelson37092]

@JackAndrewsMD @RaAres @APompliano @cfosilvia @claudeai @shaincodes Check out Coa Wealth👀

[John Nelson @JohnNelson37092]

Bloomberg and PitchBook are still the big ones for research, with Addepar for reporting. The gap we kept hitting at our family office was that none of them know what you actually own, so we built our own that ties research to your positions, its called Coa Wealth. Are you looking for one for your office?

[John Nelson @JohnNelson37092]

Makes sense. When you rebalance, it helps to see the exact number. We built a tool at the small family office I work at that adds up your exposure across every account, including what’s inside your ETFs. There’s a free trial, and we’re mainly looking for feedback if you want to check it before January. Coa Wealth