John P ⚔️

Self-Employed

[John P ⚔️ @johnp0401]

@FidelisLobo It ain't gonna be cheap. These guys charging $5-8k just to get a navigation system in your car. They make you buy upgraded trims for a mapping system that runs on any cheap $500 phone.

[John P ⚔️ @johnp0401]

@alojoh Tesla gonna kill them on pricing, wouldn't be surprised if they start offering FSD lite for very reasonable price.

[John P ⚔️ @johnp0401]

@alojoh Car companies are gonna charge so much for this. I remember Honda wanting like $5k so I could put a garmin navigation package in the car. This was when Google Maps could already run on my $500 phone.

Mercedes: $1400 for Parking Assist

[John P ⚔️ @johnp0401]

@ZacksJerryRig @Waymo Wait until you analyze the infrastructure and logistics needed for robotaxi at scale. From charging hubs, storage lots, vehicle servicing, expert technicians need to service these vehicles. Waymo has a long way to go. Tesla has structural advantages in all these areas.

[John P ⚔️ @johnp0401]

@grantbelden Waymo is far behind, it's not just about having a driving system. They need a lot more investments which tesla already have done.

[John P ⚔️ @johnp0401]

@Stonefoxcapital Even if you look at servicing these lidar based cars, how many specialist/experts do you have, probably not a lot compared to tesla who already have servicing of their vehicles. Car techs from hyundai, kia, etc are not even trained how to fix and service these cars.

[John P ⚔️ @johnp0401]

It's gonna cost a lot more than just having a driving system. At scale where are these cars gonna park from 2-8am? Then they don't even produce enough to have a dedicated manufacturing line, so they need their own sensor upfit facilities which means higher integration and labor costs. No local supply chain and service centers when these cars need to be serviced and fixed. That smells like a lot more investment needed to me. Tesla has a lot of these ingredients already in place. At true massive scale you probably need to use personal home parking and charging.

[John P ⚔️ @johnp0401]

@alojoh @Tesla ie. Norwegians ain't buying no BYD Seal.

[John P ⚔️ @johnp0401]

@mikekalilmfg Until they run out of money and need to sell to a big company.

[John P ⚔️ @johnp0401]

@itsjustyasir @i887203 @nymbusjp Yep, its harder than most think.

[John P ⚔️ @johnp0401]

@itsjustyasir @i887203 @nymbusjp This weekly miles chart has his assumptions. At 11% weekly growth for unsupervised miles, kinda aligns with middle 2027.

https://t.co/jUUcIle0Pb

[John P ⚔️ @johnp0401]

@itsjustyasir @i887203 ooof hard to say. I like @nymbusjp analysis. His base case is 1000 cars by end of 2026.

https://t.co/UjRPXasn5e

[Genma_Jp @nymbusjp]

https://t.co/LgeS1rfXlZ

[John P ⚔️ @johnp0401]

@wholemars I dunno, company feels a little sus. If you look at their new offices, it looks expensive. The interior looks super nice too. Seems they are just good at spending money. They are not frugal for sure.

[John P ⚔️ @johnp0401]

@itsjustyasir @i887203 Even at 2009, thats still 5 years ahead of tesla. All Waymo has to show for is a driving system, no manufacturing lines, no supply chain, no service centers, charging infra....all capex heavy things that will need investments.

[John P ⚔️ @johnp0401]

@itsjustyasir @i887203 Sure but the underlying self driving tech came from that car they had in the Darpa challenge. Whatever, stupid to argue about little nuanced thing we both don't know the history too.

[John P ⚔️ @johnp0401]

@i887203 @itsjustyasir Sure whatever but Waymo doesn't even build their own car, or have any manufacturing lines or any local supply chain, service centers at scale. They are missing a lot of ingredients.

https://t.co/GcdbbpxSiL

[John P ⚔️ @johnp0401]

@itsjustyasir @i887203

[John P ⚔️ @johnp0401]

@itsjustyasir @i887203

[John P ⚔️ @johnp0401]

@itsjustyasir @i887203 Uh not if you look at the standford racing team. They bought this team which was already working on the self driving several years already.

[John P ⚔️ @johnp0401]

@i887203 @itsjustyasir What are we comparing here? How long it took Waymo versus Tesla aren't we? Waymo has been at this longer than tesla by about 5-6 years at least. And they still don't have a lot of the pieces needed for robotaxi at at scale.

[John P ⚔️ @johnp0401]

@itsjustyasir @i887203 Sure no doubt, but we are comparing to Waymo whom started probably back in 2006-07.