john smiff

[john smiff @johnsmiffjvye]

Great margin of safety at $25 for great long duration marcellus + haynesville shale assets. Don’t see how this doesn’t work. Unless you’re a nat gas bear from here.

[john smiff @johnsmiffjvye]

$WHK is paying a $2.00/share annual dividend (8% yield) at a ~77% CAD payout ratio. That puts annual CAD (comparable to FCF) at a low end of $2.50/share (10% yield). I think the acquisition runway is strong and DC + export demand is a long term tailwind.

[john smiff @johnsmiffjvye]

@DDBlakeFischer Good to know! Thanks for doing the work. Would you consider fabless a tier below all of these in terms of durability? I feel like there’s more competition for NVDA and AVGO between eachother, AMD, etc. Just feels like there’s less barriers to entry.

[john smiff @johnsmiffjvye]

@DDBlakeFischer What about down cycle? I would imagine operating under capacity hurts TSM margins far more than say ASML, not just because maintenance capex is higher but reccuring mix is lower (ik this also decreases down cycle but at least margins stay high).

[john smiff @johnsmiffjvye]

@DDBlakeFischer Agree on valuation for the EDA companies. For TSM it’s simply the capital intensity. It’s as durable as any other company on this list but due to the capital intensity I think you can capture the same upside through cycle with equipment names (ASML, KLAC) with better economics.

[john smiff @johnsmiffjvye]

Nobody should be investing in semis right now without having read Ed Chancellor’s book on investing through market cycles.

I see investors I respect using NTM PE to value cyclical businesses at the top of the cycle. Yes. A single year’s estimated earnings. 🤦‍♂️

[john smiff @johnsmiffjvye]

Increased my $ASML position by 33%. First buy since April 2025.

[john smiff @johnsmiffjvye]

@WWillowResearch Where do you see value in $TPL and $LB? What prices would you add vs start a position if you didn’t already have one?

[john smiff @johnsmiffjvye]

Not happy about these moves in $FNV and $WPM. Really wanted to buy more on that little dip. I guess quality doesn’t stay cheap for long.

[john smiff @johnsmiffjvye]

Looks like value might finally be emerging in energy royalties and semi equipment names after this rotation today. Added to $TPZ.TO, looking at $TPL $PSK.TO $ASML $LRCX $APH if they drop further.

[john smiff @johnsmiffjvye]

@abl_trader Do you prefer the big two over $RGLD $OR and $TFPM ? How come?

[john smiff @johnsmiffjvye]

@ReneSellmann Fair enough. Generally a sector I avoid. I haven’t done any research on $RDDT but honestly I think there is a real moat / tailwind here. Personally, the more the internet gets saturated with AI, the more i turn to reddit because I seek authentic human thinking and opinions.

[john smiff @johnsmiffjvye]

@ReneSellmann How come? Do you make these kinds of bets often?

[john smiff @johnsmiffjvye]

@taobanker I’m curious, what prompt do you ask your LLM to get a physical firewall delivered and installed?

[john smiff @johnsmiffjvye]

@invest091 Yeah, they have the only landfill in all of vermont which is an incredible asset. Also the fact that they are smaller means every acquisition has a proportionally larger contribution to growth compared to the big 3. Enjoy your research!

[john smiff @johnsmiffjvye]

@invest091 Ahh fair enough. The whole take private situation with $GFL is weird and I already don’t love their leverage. $CWST and $WCN are the only two in my investible universe. $CWST has some incredible scarce assets in the northeast and roll-up acquisitions are very margin accretive.

[john smiff @johnsmiffjvye]

@CamperdownCo Increasing the proportion of positive outcomes in your distribution just gives you more ways to win and a larger margin of safety. So many want to concentrate just to concentrate, I guess risk management isn’t cool.

[john smiff @johnsmiffjvye]

@CamperdownCo You absolutely don’t need to own a little of everything, however, I think many retail investors underestimate how many great companies there are out there. There are many more genuinely durable businesses with strong tailwinds and operating leverage than you think.