President Trump is planning to strike Iran before midterm election:
The USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group and Fighter jets Carrier-based F-35C stealth fighters and F/A-18 Super Hornets are heading towards the Middle East.
The USS George Washington and USS George H. W. Bush are also operating in the region.
9000 personnels are also deployed to the Red sea, Arabian sea and near Gulf of Oman.
The US covers Iran from all sides. Big escalation is imminent in coming days or hours.
Source : AP/ USNI news
So someone says: “Trump could go for an attack with tactical nuclear missions as a lesson to Iran.”
And he could indeed, as I’ve written about this before.
However, taking such a step against a country that for over a year has already been an ambiguous nuclear power would be high-risk.
No one, absolutely no one, needs 450 kg of uranium enriched to 60% for civilian purposes.
There is no such demand anywhere in the world, regardless of the limitations of domestic legislation.
That said, given how long this material has already existed, it’s not just uranium anymore.
Obviously an attack with tactical nuclear missiles on Iran would produce limited radiation, depending on what it hit. But it would have the potential to trigger equivalent retaliation. or something of proportions that no one knows for sure.
Seeing lots of noise about an upcoming US military escalation. What would be the logic?
There is no ground option. The US can, of course, carry out airstrikes. But what is that going to achieve? It will almost certainly backfire by breaking the stalemate in the tug-of-war between the diplomatists and the militarists in Tehran. We can predict with a great confidence that the Iranian response will be devastating. In effect, military escalation would be a gift to Iran. It would solve the problem of their strategic incoherence for them.
There may be a case for small-scale attacks against radars and launchers near Hormuz. But even that comes with a considerable risk of escalation — it would leave the ball in Iran's court.
So, I just don't see it. I certainly cannot rule out that the US will make such a strategic error. What I can tell you is that, if it does, it will pay a hefty price for it.
The correct US strategy is the only one that has worked so far: squeeze Iran, keep the oil flowing, implement workarounds to outlast Iran in the war of the sieges in order to pressure Iran to capitulate on the Hormuz question.
The only viable alternative is a diplomatic off-ramp. In my understanding, that is more active than almost anyone else seems to think. That is why I am holding my short position.
Escalation favors Tehran. There is a case for Iranian escalation but none for US escalation.
BREAKING: Iran issues an ultimatum to the United States, declaring that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen only if American forces leave the region. Iranian Army spokesman Brig. Gen. Mohammad Akrami-Nia warned: “If it doesn’t leave, we’ll expel it,” per Press TV.
Akrami-Nia said a U.S. withdrawal would pave the way for regional countries to establish collective security without an American military presence, adding that this would also help improve the global economy.
He directly linked the reopening of the Strait to the departure of U.S. forces, presenting regional cooperation as an alternative to Washington’s military footprint and security umbrella.
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