Tariffs and the U.S. Position thoughts.
The problem with “100% tariffs or else” is that, eventually, a country will become so frustrated by constant pressure, coercion, and perceived disrespect that it will choose pain over submission.
When that moment comes, the entire world will be watching.
If that transition proves anything short of an outright disaster, it could trigger a broader domino effect. Others will realize that economic independence, even at short-term cost, is survivable. And once that realization sets in, leverage shifts.
The deeper issue is the United States’ reserve-currency privilege. This status has long kept borrowing costs artificially low and positioned the dollar at the center of global trade, finance, and power. But that privilege rests on trust, cooperation, and systemic stability.
Recent studies show that roughly 96% of tariffs are ultimately paid by U.S. consumers, not foreign exporters.
The consequences are compounding:
•Deteriorating business conditions via reduced imports and exports
•Strained relationships with key allies
•Strengthening economic ties among non-U.S. blocs, particularly with China
•Increasing geopolitical aggression as pressure builds
•A structurally weaker dollar, higher debt burden, and rising bond yields
This is precisely the type of macro backdrop that invites further U.S. credit downgrades.
Europe and especially Canada have effectively reached a breaking point. While their business ties with the U.S. remain far stronger than with the East, geopolitical decisions are not always driven by pure economic rationality. Political pressure, public sentiment, and national pride matter.
At the same time, India, China, Brazil, and Poland are reducing U.S. Treasury holdings and increasing gold reserves.
That is what the metals market has been signaling all along.
Many still believe the U.S. does not need the world. In reality, U.S. prosperity has been built on global capital flows, foreign demand, and the willingness of others to finance American debt.
The United States remains the epicenter of global capital markets. But its greatest asset, stability, is eroding rapidly.
America provided the world with the deepest capital markets and security guarantees through NATO. That system created decades of growth and prosperity.
Tariffs changed from incentivizing discussion and fairer terms for all to an ultimatum for all.
It works until someone would rather endure pain than humiliation. A lot would be repaired if dignity and appearances alone would be part of equation. Just like the US does not want to look weak, so do other countries.
This is the most dangerous I have ever seen the world. We had decades of stability, I hope we can get a few more.
Global instability is something we should avoid at all cost. Any US debt linked issues would trigger a worldwide recession and likely some sort of war.
This influences all of us in the US and abroad.
We need each other.
We need to fix relations now.
@Erik_Hansen_ Helt sant, men att få bolån (och ha tillräckligt kontant) överhuvudtaget lär iaf inte bli svårare sålänge priserna håller sig på nivå. Tror det är ett större problem för många unga - att äga boende är nog fortfarande billigare än att hyra i många fall cashflow-mässigt
@AbbeMatti@AirMJJordan@minimeras2 1. Tveksam till deras långsiktiga kundvärde (använt själv, funkade ok, blev svintråkigt i längden och är inte billigt för de miniportioner man får)
2. Vad är deras kraft över andra konkurrenter? Kan de annat än köpa tillväxt?
3. Skala - fortf ej jämförbar med vanlig handel
@RBrattstrom Förr fick man barn för att säkra sin ålderdom och föra familjen vidare.
Den första är outsourcad till ”samhället” men får man inga barn gör man inte sin del i att bidra till att det finns unga som kan ta hand om en när man är äldre. Den andra tror jag många bara skiter i.
@HankSweden @f69264375 Kan rekommendera podcasten ”Acquired” om ”platform companies”. Där diskuteras varför företag som uber eller doordash egentligen inte har de strategiska fördelar exempelvis instagram eller youtube har som plattformsföretag.
@HankSweden@Erik_Hansen_ En warrant funkar väl som en option. Värdeurgröpning genom tidsvärde, men om du får rätt i riktning ökar ditt leverage tills delta är 1 mot underliggande.
Tråkiga med warranter är att de flesta har knockar och annat tjafs. Bättre att köpa optioner?!