Shatori Walker-Kimbrough Returns to Atlanta
Shatori is back with the Atlanta Dream after rejoining the team this week. The veteran guard returns to a familiar roster following a brief stint with the Indiana Fever and brings championship experience and backcourt depth as Atlanta pushes through the second half of the season.
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Olivia Miles Makes WNBA History in 33-Point Explosion
Miles delivered a career-high 33 points, along with 8 assists and 3 rebounds, leading the Minnesota Lynx to a 104-100 win over the Phoenix Mercury. The rookie also became the fastest player in WNBA history to reach 400 points, 100 rebounds, and 100 assists, accomplishing the feat in just 22 games.
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WNBA Hot Pick | Seattle Storm vs. Indiana Fever
Game Pick: Indiana Fever -9.5
Total: Over 175.5
Score: Seattle Storm 84 – Indiana Fever 96
Projected Winner: Indiana Fever by 12
The Breakdown
Why We Like This Pick
Foxtail projects Indiana to control this game because the gap between these teams is pretty clear, and the matchup gets even tougher for Seattle on the road. The Fever are 14-9 overall, 8-4 at home, and already beat Seattle 89-78 earlier this season. Seattle is just 6-20 overall and 2-12 away from home, and the Storm are also playing their second road game in three days while Indiana comes in off a home game and stays in the same building for the front end of a back-to-back.
The biggest edge is offense. Our data shows Indiana scores 93.2 points per game with better shooting efficiency, better three-point shooting, and more playmaking than Seattle. Even if Aliyah Boston is limited or sits, Indiana still has enough shot creation from Caitlin Clark, Kelsey Mitchell, and its wings to pressure a Storm defense that has struggled to hold up over a full 40 minutes.
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Why We Like This Total
This total is high, so you need a real scoring path, but we think it is there. Indiana plays fast at 96.9 possessions per game and has cleared 90 points in four of its last six games, including 109 against Las Vegas on July 12. Seattle has also been more competitive offensively lately, scoring 90, 79, and 78 in three of its last four, so Indiana can do most of the heavy lifting while the Storm chip in enough to push this over.
What Gives Us an Edge
• Indiana has the much better offense: Foxtail's team data has the Fever at 93.2 points per game versus 80.4 for Seattle, with a clear edge in field goal percentage, three-point percentage, and overall shooting efficiency.
• Seattle has been a bad road team all year: The Storm are 2-12 away from home, which matters even more against an Indiana team that is 8-4 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.
• The first meeting supports the spread: Indiana already beat Seattle 89-78 on May 17, a result that landed right around this current number.
• Schedule spot favors Indiana: Seattle played at Chicago on July 15 and now has to travel again for this July 17 game, while Indiana has a home-heavy stretch and does not leave town before this one.
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What Could Go Wrong
The injury report is the biggest swing factor. If Caitlin Clark is less than full speed with the back issue, or if Aliyah Boston sits and Indiana loses easy interior scoring and rebounding, the Fever become less trustworthy to cover a bigger number.
The other risk is game script. If Indiana builds a double-digit lead and takes its foot off the gas late, Seattle could sneak inside the number. That same scenario could also hurt the over if the fourth quarter slows down.
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⚾ MLB Hot Pick 🚨 | Mets vs. Brewers | Milwaukee to Take Control
Game Pick: Milwaukee Brewers
Total: Under 7.5
Projected Score: New York Mets 2 – Milwaukee Brewers 5
Player Props
• Freddy Peralta: Under 5.5 Strikeouts
• Jacob Misiorowski: Over 17.5 Pitcher Outs
• Bo Bichette: Under 1.5 Total Bases
Projected Winner: Milwaukee Brewers by 3
The Breakdown
Why We Like This Pick
Foxtail projects Milwaukee here because this matchup starts with a big edge on the mound and then gets even wider when you zoom out to the full team picture. Jacob Misiorowski comes in with a 1.62 ERA and 167 strikeouts, while Freddy Peralta has a 4.66 ERA and has been much shakier lately. Add in the fact that Milwaukee is 29-18 at home, while the Mets are just 14-22 on the road, and this looks like the better team in the better spot.
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Why We Like This Total
We still lean under 7.5 because Milwaukee can control the game without needing a shootout. Misiorowski’s strikeout stuff lowers the Mets’ scoring ceiling, and New York’s offense has been weak all year with a .229 average and .664 OPS in our data. The main risk to the under is Milwaukee doing most of the damage by itself, but Foxtail still sees this more as a 5-2 type game than an 8-4 game.
What Gives Us an Edge
• Starting pitching gap: Misiorowski’s season line is ace-level, with a 1.62 ERA and 167 strikeouts, while Peralta enters at 4.66 ERA. That is the clearest difference in this game.
• Team quality gap: Milwaukee owns a 53-32 record and +112 run differential in our data. The Mets sit at 32-40 with a -23 run differential. Over a full sample, that is not a small gap.
• Home and road split: The Brewers are strong at home at 29-18. The Mets have struggled away from home at 14-22. That matters in a game where the favorite already has the better starter.
• Lineup depth: Milwaukee’s offense has been much more reliable all season, posting a .735 OPS versus the Mets’ .664. Even if both starters are decent, the Brewers are more likely to string together enough offense.
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Player Prop Reasoning
• Freddy Peralta under 5.5 strikeouts
This is mostly a workload and form play. Foxtail does not need Peralta to pitch badly for this to cash; we just need him to land around five strikeouts, and his recent inconsistency makes a shorter outing very possible.
• Jacob Misiorowski over 17.5 pitcher outs
That line asks for six full innings, and that is very doable against this Mets lineup. New York has not hit consistently enough to force elite pitchers out early, and Milwaukee should give Misiorowski a long leash if he looks sharp.
• Bo Bichette under 1.5 total bases
Bichette is one of the few Mets bats that can hurt this under, but the matchup is rough against Misiorowski’s power arsenal. Asking for two or more bases against one of the league’s toughest starters is a big lift.
What Could Go Wrong
The biggest risk is Peralta pitching like the better version of himself against his former team and turning this into a low-scoring coin flip through five innings. There is also some danger with Misiorowski if the recent arm-fatigue issue leads Milwaukee to manage his pitch count more carefully than usual. If the Brewers leave traffic on base early, the moneyline can get sweatier than it should.
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