Jon Ogg

Investor with 30 years stock, bond, economic coverage. Financial newsletter for Advisors, Active/HNW investors looking for gains and income.

[Jon Ogg @jonogg]

$SMH -5.8% Looks bad, but market may have no clue how deep "chip collusion" will go nor what will turn up. But $SNDK -13% $MRVL -12% and $MU -7% seem small compared to their parabolic run ups. SK Hynix has had two days of 10% drops in last 2 weeks alone, not a common event.

[Jon Ogg @jonogg]

@michaeljburry My question is simple but answering it may not be so simple... What businesses are actually going to entrust their infrastructure with Zuck and Facebook (like the name Meta is appropriate any long!)?

[Jon Ogg @jonogg]

@Budgetdog_ Market Indexes like S&P500, Dow, NASDAQ-100 don't have to listen to the media claims of "uncertainty" all day and they don't make the actual emotional and behavioral mistakes that investors make (even if their prices are dictated by fear, greed, inflows and outflows.

[Jon Ogg @jonogg]

@Jkylebass There is always $BATRA and its trading basically at all-time high

[Jon Ogg @jonogg]

SpaceX $SPCX market mechanics debate as many are "perma-long." Look at:
Put/Call option volume (1 contract=100 shares)
Open Interest
Volume of inverse/leveraged SpaceX ETFS like $SPCH $SNK $SPCF $SPAX
Cost/shares to borrow (for shorts)...
IS THE TAIL NOW WAGGING THE DOG?

[Jon Ogg @jonogg]

@lhamtil In 10 years, if the only super-majority solution in Congress is "means test" then what's the math? And if you know you are "means-d out" do you have to keep contributing?
My dad used to say he didn't need it, but he paid in 65 years for ~19 years of it before dying. Math please?

[Jon Ogg @jonogg]

@jimiuorio I agree, mostly when average age lowers via Attrition alone. Me as GenX, my 10-year outlook:
"Silents" will be "permanently muted"
"Boomers" will be "more silent"
GenX will have very little say

Then bad ideas and AI may dictate "please us but not you" policies.

[Jon Ogg @jonogg]

I was lucky to get in SpaceX thru buying into xAI in 2024. I knew there were funds and public companies with shares from various funding/deals as well, but there are at least 11 funds/stocks that have accumulated pre-IPO stakes over the years.
https://t.co/bSyKf9C2cE

[Jon Ogg @jonogg]

@growthrapidly I thought $MRAM was.... I owned & traded in & out for a year. After I finally threw in the towel waiting, it surged under Murphy's Law for Investors. They have some limitations and high valuations, even down 12% today and even -48% from absolute high and -38% from closing high.

[Jon Ogg @jonogg]

Is Costco stock $COST back in No-Man's Land after earnings failed to hold $1000+? May "breakout"was very-very short-lived (headfake?). Closing prices vs. intraday highs look even worse in start 2025-present. And this...
45 forward P/E
still well under 1% dividend yield
slower growth opportunities
Will new prospective investors look elsewhere, or existing investors trim/reallocate?

[Jon Ogg @jonogg]

@SenWarren Look at Jan-2021 to Jan-2025 cumulative inflation. It's over 20% cumulatively, and that is just using the straight BLS CPI inflation calculator. Let that sink in.

https://t.co/7V30AvoNws

[Jon Ogg @jonogg]

I figured court wouldn't rule for @Elon in OpenAI case due to time (I was for Elon!), but the whole "from non-profit to being Microsoft's familiar pet until countless billions get paid back" was a mess (as well as the internal feud). It prevented some from investing in OpenAI.

[Jon Ogg @jonogg]

Now look at some of the big and widespread companies that hit/challenged 52-week lows in last few days... $HD $IBM $MCD $ISRG $ABT $MDT $ACN $BSX $MRSH $CTAS $OTIS $DHR $NRG $FIS $EFX $LULU $NKE $CDW $MKC $BBY $Z $ACI $BLDR $MOS $PPC $POOL $LPX

[Jon Ogg @jonogg]

The top 10 S&P500 $SPY stocks ~37.7% of entire index weight (backed out $GOOG X2). $SPY vs equal weight $RSP shows continued huge disparity as 250+ companies hardly matter to weight/gains.
$SPY vs $RSP:
1wk +1% vs -1%
1mo +6.9% vs +1.5%
YTD +8.8% vs +5.8%
1yr +26% vs +14%

[Jon Ogg @jonogg]

@SaraEisen From Claude this morning...
Government math versus financial math

[Jon Ogg @jonogg]

Does the good old Gold:Silver ratio even actually hold any relevance today? Using $GLD $SLV ...
Gold now -15.5% from high
Silver now -27% from high
Both are of course after explosive moves higher, followed by the 2026 pullbacks.
Performance over time recent and past from Fiviz:

[Jon Ogg @jonogg]

I was curious about the actual math for a balanced budget for NYC as government math with internal and external financing assumptions is often different from real math that people have to live by... So I asked Claude...

[Jon Ogg @jonogg]

@LarryJones Not taking cash forces higher prices period: 2.3-2.9% surcharge (swipe fee) paid by customer and 20-28% interest if customer carries a balance. It can push people over their credit limits, now or next transaction. Biz's shouldn't have to make change, but should have to take cash.

[Jon Ogg @jonogg]

@growthrapidly By the way, thanks for posting this. Some very interesting and underfollowed growth
stocks have been mentioned in this thread today. I love when the community actually engages and shares info. The fear of being wrong keeps too many people from sharing thoughts in public.