jorge

[jorge @jorge_pery]

Grupo" inversores libres". Gratis y cada uno aporta sus ideas, por el bien de todos. No es asesoramiento financiero

"Free Investors" community. It’s free, everyone can contribute with ideas for the benefit of the group. This is not financial advice.

https://t.co/r46cwlLO18

[jorge @jorge_pery]

@joseluiis @Fabriuruguayo Para que te inventas cosas , estas resentido . Posibilidades de ganar Uruguay 0%

[jorge @jorge_pery]

@josebamortalena Lo que ayer fue diferente y se echaba en falta, fue que a la hora de perder la pelota fueron a presionar fuerte para recuperar rápido el balón. Esa intensidad es la que no habían tenido. Olmo en este aspecto es clave, le da verticalidad al ataque.

[jorge @jorge_pery]

@TedPillows "African" team?
Out of the 11 starters, 9 were born outside DR Congo and developed in Europe.
Squad by country of birth: 🇫🇷 France: 11 players England: 3 players 🇧🇪 Belgium: 2 players 🇳🇱 Netherlands: 1 player 🇩🇪 Germany: 1 player 🇨🇩 DR Congo: 8 players

[jorge @jorge_pery]

@josebamortalena Eso pienso yo.....al final lo pumpean con noticias,....la rentabilidad de los bonos subiendo, el petróleo subiendo, los indices subiendo ....alguien miente.
No sé rick...pero parece falso

[jorge @jorge_pery]

@VoyConBirra Jugando como contra España no se merecen estar en la siguiente ronda. No dieron nib3 pases seguidos..... sino fuera porque el árbitro dejaba seguir el juego...hubiera Uruguay acabado con 7 jugadores

[EndGame Macro @onechancefreedm]

Oil Is Exposing The Demand Problem

Oil is not falling only because the war premium is coming out. That is the easy explanation. The deeper issue is that demand was already weakening before the Strait of Hormuz shock, and the war narrative temporarily hid that weakness.

Before the reopening headlines, China was soft, global manufacturing was uneven, consumers were stretched, the dollar was rising, and freight, petrochemicals, travel, and industrial activity were under pressure. Higher oil likely made that worse by forcing demand saving.

So when the U.S. Iran deal and partial reopening of Hormuz hit the tape, oil did not just lose geopolitical premium. It lost the cover story.

The War Premium Hid Weak Demand

The market had been carrying three premiums. A war premium from Hormuz. An inflation premium from energy disruption. A scarcity premium from fears that supply chains could not normalize.

Now the first two are being stripped out quickly, while the third is being challenged by weak end demand. The market is not simply saying peace is guaranteed. It is saying the demand base underneath the war trade was weaker than people wanted to admit.

The Product Market Is The Tell

Crude inventories can draw and still not be bullish if refined products are building. Gasoline and distillate inventories matter because they show what the end user is consuming.

If gasoline demand weakens, diesel demand softens, and distillates rise, the problem is not just supply. It is the real economy pulling less product through the system.

Oil demand is trucks moving freight, consumers driving, planes flying, factories producing, chemical plants running, and global trade expanding. If those channels weaken, crude can fall even when the headline crude number looks supportive.

The Dollar Makes It Worse

A stronger dollar tightens global financial conditions and makes oil more expensive for non dollar buyers. That hits emerging markets, Europe, Japan, and energy importers across Asia.

So even as oil falls in dollar terms, the same dollar squeeze hitting metals and risk assets is also pressuring energy demand. Lower oil is not always bullish. It depends on why it is falling.

The Historical Pattern

In 2008, oil spiked on scarcity fears just as the economy was already breaking underneath. Then demand destruction overwhelmed the supply story and crude collapsed. In 2014 to 2016, supply growth collided with weaker global demand. In 2020, once end demand disappeared, supply cuts arrived too late.

First the market focuses on supply. Then demand quietly deteriorates. Then the supply narrative breaks and prices fall faster than expected.

My Take

Oil is falling because the war premium was sitting on top of a weakening global demand base.

If WTI stabilizes in the high $60’s and product demand improves, this looks like a healthy removal of geopolitical froth. If WTI breaks into the mid $60’s while the dollar stays strong, gasoline demand stays soft, distillates build, copper weakens, and equities roll over, then oil is no longer just pricing peace. It is pricing a global slowdown that the war temporarily disguised

[jorge @jorge_pery]

@Javier30670747 Ojalá, así será oportunidad de comprar más barato

[ian cooper @icooperTrades]

WHERE DID THE MONEY GO? #Stockmarket ANALYSIS AND TARGETS;
Yesterday, the #SP500, #Nasdaq, #gold, #bitcoin and almost everything else was down big. Normally when one area is down, somewhere else is up and people talk about money rotation. BUT not this time. This was just a mini crash day and when they occur, nothing is immune.
The reason? A combination of factors;
- Some people are attributing it to a strong jobs number and the follow on reduction on chances of rate cuts (and actual increased chance of rate rises). Now there is some truth in those points as facts. BUT I do not buy that they were the cause of this. What I do think is that they were part of the spark that caused some panic.
- Some people are saying that money is flowing out of the markets to be ready to go into the #spaceX IPO and the following #anthropic and #openAI IPOs. There will also be some truth in this but that will be more gradual than big players all deciding to sell at the same time on a specific Friday.
- Some people are saying that the war in Iran will re-ignite and that #oil and global markets need to price that risk in. Again, I actually agree that markets are not correctly pricing in the risk but if this was the trigger, oil would be above 100 and it was down on Friday
MY TAKE: the markets are at a peak/nearing a peak of a massive AI bubble and nearing a crash. I have posted regularly my thoughts on this so this is NOT calling it after a drop. BUT I have said for several months we are topping and going to crash and explained my reasons why. At these points in cycles, investors are well aware we are working at hugely inflated valuations, stocks are priced to perfection and the downside risks are big. So they are edgy. All 3 of the factors above acted on Friday as kindling in lighting the spark that caused a cascade. THEN THE ALGORITHMS KICK IN: Big money all has built in algorithms that kick in and sell once prices move outside an acceptable range. Once they start selling a vicious circle is started and it is hard to stop it.

WHERE DOES THIS GO NEXT: The honest answer is that I don't know and no one knows. Do we keep selling on Monday? Again I don't know. Nothing goes in a straight line and we could easily buy the dip on monday and go back to new highs. We could equally continue down another 3-5%. BUT in the medium term I do see a 20+% correction on SP500 and Nasdaq.

THE TARGETS: I will post a separate post today with detailed values and what I am looking for to judge which way we go day to day and the route forward. This post is already long enough.

If you got this far, thanks for reading. If you like my analysis please do like and share. It does make a big difference.

[Ted @TedPillows]

$107,460,000 in long positions liquidated in the past hour.

Late longs are getting cleaned.

[Ted @TedPillows]

S&P 500 is trying to break above its 6-year resistance trendline.

A similar thing happened in October 2025, which led to a 6% drop.

[Jason @3PeaksTrading]

$IWM turning red already leading lower and RSP also red showing that weaker breadth today again... its just a Semi blowoff top party

[Joseba Mortalena @josebamortalena]

Con los semiconductores subiendo así es imposible que SP/Nasdaq corrijan, pero esta subida histórica es insostenible, jamás se vió nada igual en el sector, ni siquiera en rebotes tras caídas enormes como 2000/2008

Vendrán correcciones en el $SOXX aunque sea para seguir subiendo

[Michael Bento @MichaelPBento]

Guys this may not be the TACO you think it is. Lets parse the language. He's tacitly acknowledging the IRGC has nominal control of the country and total military control, he's also revealing they are only attempting negotiations with the civilian government, which may not be enough for the IRGC.
This is painted as not his idea and keeping up appearances so as not to piss off Pakistan.
The fact that he is continuing the blockade and keeping troops in the region ready to go, both of which are a continued violation of the terms Iran has given before they will attend talks.
The fact that he left the extension open ended until "talks are concluded" instead of a specified deadline as he usually does indicates that he could begin the attacks tonight or later this week without appearing to go back on what he said here.
Pure speculation, but it looks to me like he is trying to lay the groundwork to make the case that the IRGC has done a coup in order to justify an invasion as a "liberation" rather than regime change.

[RonnieV @TheRonnieVShow]

Current Climate: Storm 🌩️

Trend still down overall, but a Short-Term Bull Trigger just printed.

Watching how price reacts at:
20DMA
200DMA

If price pushes above → bounce can continue
If rejected → likely more downside

Patience here.

Trend → Trigger → Follow-through.

$QQQ $SPY

[💼 Javier Alfayate @JavierAlfayate]

¿Qué setup escogerías?
❤️A
♻️B

[El yonki de los mercados @yonki_mercados]

Exacto!!

A GOLDEN DROME!!

Y lo mejor?

no tiene planes de emitir más convertibles.

En otras palabras:

NO MÁS ampliaciones de capital.

Se reduce el miedo a una dilución masiva.

Además, ahora cuenta con más de 50 socios MNO a nivel global, lo que le da acceso a aproximadamente 3.000 millones de suscriptores y alrededor de 1.150 MHz de espectro seguro en todo el mundo.

El mercado no solo está valorando el crecimiento esperado, sino también la menor incertidumbre para el accionista.

[jorge @jorge_pery]

@yonki_mercados @CanMaverick85 Los 67-73 son clave

[El yonki de los mercados @yonki_mercados]

Lo mejor que le puede pasar a un inversor a largo plazo es que las mejores compañías del mundo bajen de forma generalizada por motivos ajenos a sus cuentas de resultados.