JoshARB

Flew lay flat to Europe 4x on points. Flipped $40k in cars. Weekly arbitrage plays my newsletter

[JoshARB @josharbitrage]

Ever spotted a deal others missed? 🍽️ At 8, I cracked the menu code at a Mexican restaurant. Now, I’m sharing my lifelong journey of finding hidden value. Dive in: https://t.co/BNKkJ5BtAP #TheARB #Arbitrage #ValueHunter

[JoshARB @josharbitrage]

$ASTS technical update 📊

Last week price reclaimed the 50 WMA at $76 with authority — a strong show of strength off the June lows.

On the daily, the 50D and 200D MAs have flipped and are now being tested as support. The key level: 50 DMA at $85 — and that battle is live right now, with Friday’s close landing at $85.12.

Hold this level and bulls are in control — trend stays up.

If strength continues, the $103 Bull Line gets tested next. That level has NEVER held as support. The day it does, the door opens to $170 and $215.

Big week ahead. 👀

[JoshARB @josharbitrage]

During the gold rush nobody got rich mining. The fortunes were made selling shovels

AI needs connectivity everywhere — factories, vehicles, sensors, devices

None of it works without ubiquitous global connectivity
ASTS works on the phone already in your pocket — no special hardware

4B+ people without reliable broadband = the market is almost incomprehensible

Every carrier on earth is a potential partner
While everyone debates which AI model wins. ASTS collects the toll regardless

You don't need to pick the gold rush winner. You just need to own the shovel. $ASTS

[JoshARB @josharbitrage]

$ASTS is the shovel for the AI gold rush 🪙

[JoshARB @josharbitrage]

The crowd sees: dilution, desperation, bad timing

The smart read: management is telling you exactly what they think the stock is worth

$HIMS

[JoshARB @josharbitrage]

Most people think airline miles only work on that airline's flights.

That's the single most expensive misconception in points.

Every major program has partner award charts. Alaska can book American. United can book Lufthansa. Virgin can book Delta.

And here's the arb: partner programs often price the exact same seat cheaper than the operating airline's own miles.

I booked business class to Italy on an American Airlines plane — using Alaska miles — because Alaska's rate beat AAdvantage's own pricing.

The seat was identical. The savings were real.

This is what I audit when I review a business owner's points strategy.

[JoshARB @josharbitrage]

200,000 American Airlines miles.

Two business class seats to Italy. Round trip. AA metal both ways.

Cash value of those seats: ~$18,000.

Here's what most people miss — I didn't book both tickets the same way.

One ticket came through AAdvantage. The other I booked through Alaska Mileage Plan on the same American Airlines flight.

Alaska priced the seat cheaper than AA's own program.

That's loyalty program arbitrage. Same seat. Same flight. Two different currencies. One meaningfully better deal.

Most business owners have tens of thousands of points sitting idle right now, earning them nothing.

I help fix that.

👇 Thread on exactly how this works.

[JoshARB @josharbitrage]

I booked two business class seats to Italy on the same American Airlines flight.
But I used two different loyalty programs to do it — because one priced the seat 30% cheaper than AA's own miles.
Most people don't know partner award charts exist. Here's how the arbitrage works.

[JoshExplainsOil @Joshexplains]

@cmsinvests We are probably close to the next bottom after wave 5. Not investment advice. Probably run to 10k soon. Then crash to 7k or so. 7k will be where you hope to buy the generational crash.

[The Budget Builder @TheJagtrader]

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[JoshARB @josharbitrage]

The Helium Nobody Priced: What Could Cause the Wave 5 Crash https://t.co/ST2HVi6jRQ

[JoshARB @josharbitrage]

NVDA is up 15% in 2026.
The S&P is down 3%.
One stock is holding the entire index together.
A missile strike on March 2nd may have just started the clock on breaking it.
It has nothing to do with oil.
New Josh Arb drop 👇
https://t.co/PCPDTEqZo7

[JoshARB @josharbitrage]

The trade nobody is making yet.
Everyone sees the oil spike. Crude up 40%. Diesel at $5. Hormuz closed.
That’s the obvious trade. That’s already priced.
Here’s what isn’t.
Qatar just lost one-third of the world’s helium supply. Iranian missiles hit Ras Laffan on March 2nd — the same facility that produces helium as a byproduct of LNG processing. Production stopped. Force majeure declared. One-third of global supply gone overnight.
Helium is non-negotiable for semiconductor manufacturing. No substitutes. No strategic reserve. No synthetic alternative. TSMC, Samsung, SK Hynix — they’re all running on existing inventory right now. That inventory started draining March 2nd.
The shortage hasn’t hit the market yet. But it’s weeks away.
Now look at who benefits when helium gets scarce:
Linde — dominant helium distributor globally. Already up 15% in 2026. JPMorgan upgraded it last week specifically citing helium tightness.
Air Products — up 14% this year. Wells Fargo just upgraded to overweight on the same thesis.
These aren’t speculative bets. They’re the two companies that physically control helium distribution infrastructure when allocation protocols kick in. When supply gets rationed, the distributor sets the price. And helium demand is almost completely inelastic — semiconductor fabs and hospitals don’t stop buying because the price doubled.
The arb here is simple:
The market is priced for an oil disruption. It is not priced for a helium disruption that cascades into semiconductor supply chains, which cascades into AI infrastructure buildout, which cascades into the one stock holding the S&P together.
NVDA is down but not pricing this risk explicitly. Linde and Air Products are moving but still early relative to what a 3-month minimum disruption actually means for contract repricing.
The Hormuz story has a second chapter. Most people are still reading the first one.
That’s the arb.

[JoshARB @josharbitrage]

@dangainor @mcuban Does it though?

[JoshARB @josharbitrage]

@LuizaJarovsky This post brought to you by Claude.

[JoshARB @josharbitrage]

@hthieblot It’s me.

[JoshARB @josharbitrage]

@ashayTikekar @sweatystartup Energy prices will increase though. Efficiency will matter.

[JoshARB @josharbitrage]

Where do you find purpose?

[JoshARB @josharbitrage]

@EWaveMacro @jonbrooks Sorry you disagree with the real answer.

[JoshARB @josharbitrage]

The CPI is a broken ruler.
And using it to call a housing bubble is like measuring your waist with a rubber band.
Here’s what most people don’t know about how CPI tracks housing costs:
The BLS doesn’t use actual home prices.
They don’t use mortgage payments.
They don’t use purchase prices at all.
They use something called Owners’ Equivalent Rent (OER) — a survey that asks homeowners: “What do you think your house would rent for?”
That single number accounts for:
→ 26% of total CPI
→ 33% of core CPI
→ 44% of core services CPI
It’s the biggest line item in the entire inflation basket.
And it’s based on vibes.
OER also lags reality by 12–16 months. When rents exploded in 2021–22, CPI barely flinched — then caught up 18 months later when rents were already cooling.
So when you divide home prices by CPI to “prove” a bubble, you’re dividing a hard asset by a lagged, survey-based, deliberately smoothed estimate of what that same asset would cost to rent.
The denominator is designed not to track home prices.
That’s not analysis. That’s circular math.
The real signal is M2. $4.7T in 2000. $22.4T today.
Home prices didn’t go up. The dollar got smaller.
That’s not a bubble. That’s arithmetic

[JoshARB @josharbitrage]

@kinginvestings Twice the money now. Literally everything costs the same just have more money printed.