Victoria Bedell

Founder of email at [email protected]. Former senior editor of @CampusCitizen

[Victoria Bedell @journobedell]

The 2024 postmortem: https://t.co/0j85vDostQ
The model was changed last minute due to a lack of phone-based polling this year in hopes of making it more accurate. If the original methodology of the presidential model had been used, we would've predicted the election for Trump.

[Victoria Bedell @journobedell]

If you want to see how this result was arrived at, look at the overall Congressional forecast on the website here: https://t.co/45XMagaLjm

[Victoria Bedell @journobedell]

The last Congress Compass forecast for Congress: The Senate is predicted to have 52 Republican seats to 48 Democratic caucus seats; overall control is Tilt Republican. The House is predicted to have 219 Democratic seats to 216 Republican seats; overall control is Tilt Democratic.

[Victoria Bedell @journobedell]

The final Congress Compass presidential forecast is Tilt Harris.

National average:

Kamala Harris, 49.9%
Donald Trump, 47.9%

Electoral Votes: 292 D-246 R

Swing state ratings: AZ is Lean R, GA is Tilt R, MI is Tilt D, NV is Tilt D, NC is Tilt D, PA is Tilt D, and WI is Tilt D.

[Victoria Bedell @journobedell]

In the biggest shift in polling this cycle, VP Kamala Harris moved ahead with 48.6% in the Congress Compass national average to Trump's 48.5%. GA, NV, NC, PA have gone from Tilt R to Tilt D, while AZ went from Tilt R to Lean R. Overall, 308 EVs for Harris to 230 EVs for Trump.

[Victoria Bedell @journobedell]

In a race of mixed signals, the national popular vote has swung to former President Donald Trump, who has 48.7% to Vice President Kamala Harris's 48.0%, while WI has swung from Tilt R to Tilt D, and CO has swung from Likely D to Solid D. EVs are 287 for Trump to 251 for Harris.

[Victoria Bedell @journobedell]

In the latest update of the 2024 presidential forecast, AZ and GA have flipped from Lean R to Tilt R, while PA has flipped from Tilt D to Tilt R. The Electoral College vote spread is 297 for Trump and 241 for Harris, with 48.6% for Harris and 47.9% for Trump in the popular vote.

[Victoria Bedell @journobedell]

Our House forecast is now a complete tossup (216 D-4 ?-215 R), with CA-47 (Tilt D to Tilt R) and FL-13 (Tilt D to Tossup). NC-01 has also moved (Lean D to Likely D). In the Senate, the race in PA has moved from Lean D to Tilt D, while WA is now Likely D. https://t.co/0j85vDp0jo

[Victoria Bedell @journobedell]

The Congress Compass forecast for the House of Representatives is Tilt Democratic: 218 Democratic seats, 214 Republican seats, and 3 pure tossups. The Senate forecast is Tilt Republican: 51 seats for the Republican Party to 49 Democratic caucus seats. https://t.co/45XMagaLjm

[Victoria Bedell @journobedell]

10-10 Congress Compass presidential forecast update:

FL: Lean R to Likely R
GA: Tilt R to Lean R
NV: Tilt D to Tilt R
TX: Lean R to Likely R

Recent polls have shown a small shift to former President Donald Trump. Overall race is Tilt Trump, EV spread is 278 R to 260 D.

[Victoria Bedell @journobedell]

The Congress Compass overall presidential forecast is Tilt Trump: 272 EVs and 46.9% of the popular vote for former President Donald Trump and 266 EVs and 48.7% of the popular vote for Vice President Kamala Harris. MI has flipped from Lean D to Tilt D, WI from Tilt D to Tilt R.

[Victoria Bedell @journobedell]

9-29 Congress Compass ratings changes for the presidential race:

AZ: Tilt R to Lean R
NE-02: Lean D to Likely D
NC: Tilt D to Tilt R
OH: Solid R to Likely R

https://t.co/0j85vDp0jo

[Victoria Bedell @journobedell]

In the latest update of the Congress Compass polling model, Vice President Kamala Harris is ahead of former President Donald Trump nationally by 1.1 points. 276 Electoral College votes are predicted for Harris and 262 are predicted for Trump. The overall race is Tilt Harris.

[Victoria Bedell @journobedell]

VP Kamala Harris has a 1.3% lead in the Congress Compass national polling average. In the Electoral College she's expected 292 EVs to former President Donald Trump’s 246 EVs. Overall race is Tilt D.

Ratings changes:
AZ: Tilt D to Tilt R
IA: Solid R to Lean R
MI: Tilt D to Lean D

[Victoria Bedell @journobedell]

Ahead of the debate, the Congress Compass forecast has Vice President Harris leading the national average by 1.1 points with a projected 303 EVs to 235 EVs for former President Donald Trump.

GA: Tilt D to Tilt R
NC: Tilt R to Tilt D
TX: Likely R to Lean R
VA: Tilt D to Likely D

[Victoria Bedell @journobedell]

Following her acceptance of her party's nomination at the DNC, Vice President Kamala Harris leads the Congress Compass national polling average by 1.3%. Georgia has flipped from Tilt R to Tilt D, making the forecasted map resemble 2020 redux: 303 D-235 R. https://t.co/0j85vDostQ

[Victoria Bedell @journobedell]

In the latest Congress Compass update, Vice President Kamala Harris leads by 0.8% nationally. Nevada has flipped from Tilt R to Tilt D, while North Carolina has moved from Tilt D to Tilt R. Overall prediction is Tilt Harris, 287 D-251 R. https://t.co/0j85vDp0jo

[Victoria Bedell @journobedell]

Vice President Kamala Harris has moved to a narrow lead of 0.4 percent in the Congress Compass nationwide polling average. This is the first time the Democratic presidential nominee has led the expected popular vote since the launch of our 2024 model. https://t.co/0j85vDp0jo

[Victoria Bedell @journobedell]

The latest round of presidential polling has flipped North Carolina from Tilt R to Tilt D in the Congress Compass model. EV spread is 297 for Vice President Kamala Harris, 241 for Donald Trump, national polling average is Trump+0.2, and the overall race remains Tilt Harris.

[Victoria Bedell @journobedell]

With Michigan as the tipping point state with a less than 0.1 percent Democratic lead, the overall Congress Compass forecast is now Tilt Harris. Trump+0.8 nationwide, 281 D to 257 R in the Electoral College.

FL: Likely R to Lean R
MI: Tilt R to Tilt D
Overall: Tilt R to Tilt D