Jozef Soja

Research Analyst @ARKInvest focusing on AI, cloud computing, and SaaS. Disclosure:

[Jozef Soja @JozefARK]

As AI labs like Anthropic and OpenAI continue to push the frontier of performance, government regulation is becoming a more meaningful headwind to adoption. Read more on Fable/Mythos, SpaceX, and more in this week's newsletter:

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https://t.co/nxRzI0lKaK

[Jozef Soja @JozefARK]

Last week, @AnthropicAI closed a round at nearly a $1 trillion valuation and released Opus 4.8. The newest model is more cost effective than the previous generation, which is starting to become more important as CTOs and CFOs begin to evaluate their spend on AI.

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https://t.co/WhzROF2WLl

[Jozef Soja @JozefARK]

A lot of the conversation around AI is rightly focused on boosting productivity and automating knowledge work. But it also holds the potential to accelerate new discoveries in math and science. Last week, an @OpenAI model autonomously solved an open question in mathematics:

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https://t.co/4Ph9u8hw2y

[Jozef Soja @JozefARK]

The platform-as-a-service layer is seeing growth from AI as tooling and data become increasingly important. Read our investment thesis for Databricks below:

[ARK Funds @ARK_Funds]

Enterprise technology tends to create a new platform layer that becomes essential to operations. Mainframes had operating systems. The internet era had databases and middleware.

The AI era demands something different: a unified data and intelligence platform that can govern, process, and learn from an entire organization's information estate.

ARK believes Databricks is building that platform.

A few numbers that stand out:
• $2.6B in fiscal year 2025 revenue
• By early 2026, $5.4B+ annual revenue run-rate, with 65%+ year-over-year growth
• Net revenue retention above 140%, compared to Snowflake's 126%, meaning existing customers expand dramatically
• 800 customers spending over $1M annually, 70 spending over $10M
• Structured Query Language (SQL) business alone targeting $1B run-rate; AI product portfolio already there

We believe the architecture is the competitive moat. Databricks' "lakehouse" architecture collapses historically separate systems, data warehouses, data lakes, and machine learning (ML) environments, into one open platform. As enterprises move from AI experimentation to production-grade deployment, the platform governing the underlying data captures disproportionate value.

Open-source gravity around Delta Lake and MLflow anchors developer workflows in Databricks-originated standards, extending its relevance beyond any single product cycle.

The consumption flywheel is already turning. More workloads. More governed datasets. More inference. More value.

Read ARK’s full Investment Thesis ⬇️

[Jozef Soja @JozefARK]

Capex from the major hyperscalers continues to grow, but so does their revenue backlogs as demand outpaces supply. Read our thoughts on last week's earnings and the implications for AI:

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https://t.co/RpgZH3IOXC

[Jozef Soja @JozefARK]

Really interesting to see the price to rent H100s flatten out, and in the case of 1yr contracts, even start to tick back up. Lines up well with the inflection in usage we've seen for AI models over the past quarter. Data from @SemiAnalysis_

[Jozef Soja @JozefARK]

@lukepuplett @GoogleAI @AnthropicAI @OpenAI Yes, the numbers in the legend are based on the final bar. The cyan is xAI, which saw a spike when they gave away free tokens on OpenRouter. Also, this only captures tokens inferenced on OpenRouter, not OpenAI, Google, or Anthropic's infra, total market share may be different.

[Jozef Soja @JozefARK]

We published this chart in Big Ideas 2026 a few months ago, but things are moving so quickly that it already needs an update. From Dec 2024 to Jan 2026, weekly tokens inferenced on @OpenRouter increased 25x to about 7 trillion. Since then, its tripled again to over 21 trillion!

[Jozef Soja @JozefARK]

When @AnthropicAI revealed the capabilities of the unreleased Mythos model, it resurfaced concerns about AI's impact on cybersecurity. We think AI will continue to be a tailwind to cybersecurity companies- read more about why in this week's newsletter:

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https://t.co/TFrT6MHD5h

[ARK Invest @ARKInvest]

Next Generation Internet Research Analyst @JozefARK does a deep dive into the AI Productivity section of ARK's Big Ideas 2026 report.

Watch now!

[Jozef Soja @JozefARK]

Since releasing ChatGPT in 2022, OpenAI has become one of the fastest growing companies in the AI space, revolutionizing the way we think about work. Now, we're partnering with OpenAI to provide exposure through 3 ETFs.
Current holdings: https://t.co/V8MNoV8OqO

[ARK Funds @ARK_Funds]

We are proud to announce that @OpenAI is now held in 3 ARK ETFs! @CathieDWood and @thefriley discuss the collaboration in a special video. Watch now!

Private innovation. Public access.

[Jozef Soja @JozefARK]

OpenAI and Anthropic's revenues are surging following the release of new productivity tools built on top of their models. After testing a few of them, like Claude Cowork and Claude for Excel, It's clear why. Connecting the ability to take actoin is a key productivity unlock.

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https://t.co/Z7d8kxf19c

[Jozef Soja @JozefARK]

@ARKInvest https://t.co/KwEoeAEV1f

[Jozef Soja @JozefARK]

ARK's Big Ideas 2026 is here!

AI agents are improving quickly. In 2024, they struggled to complete tasks that would take a human 5 minutes. Now, they're demonstrating 80% success rates on tasks that would take the average user 30+ minutes:

[Jozef Soja @JozefARK]

This has led to substantial revenue acceleration for leading AI labs. As these agents continue to improve in 2026 and beyond, we think the corresponding investment in automation software, along with the infrastructure that supports it, will scale into the trillions of dollars.

[Jozef Soja @JozefARK]

ARK's Big Ideas 2026 is here!

AI agents are improving quickly. In 2024, they struggled to complete tasks that would take a human 5 minutes. Now, they're demonstrating 80% success rates on tasks that would take the average user 30+ minutes:

[ARK Invest @ARKInvest]

Don’t chase what was. Own what’s next. Big Ideas 2026.
Download now: https://t.co/Uw1o20VSMc

[Jozef Soja @JozefARK]

Put in dollar terms, saving a knowledge worker 30 minutes is worth about $28, based on a median US knowledge worker salary of $56.50 per hour. At $20 per month, ChatGPT now recoups its monthly cost in less than a day of use, based on reports that users save an hour per day.

[Jozef Soja @JozefARK]

Last week, @OpenAI expanded their compute roadmap via a $10 billion deal with chipmaker @cerebras. While 750 megawatts of compute is small compared to other deals OpenAI has made, it's a vote of confidence in Cerebras and an important strategic step for OpenAI.

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https://t.co/byAdGeuKyK

[ARK Funds @ARK_Funds]

Top-performing stock ETFs of 2025? ARK claims four spots in the top five, according to Morningstar.