@BillAckman@SpaceX Shows how euphoric the times are. Any kind of valuations are justified & defended in such times. Are we at the peak of the bubble?
Milking the Quarter & Starving the Decade.
Take the Board of Cricket Control of India. A tax free billion dollar revenue machine. In return it is supposed to maintain stadiums. Unless you watch it from VIP boxes or carry your own sofa to it have you seen the experience at the stands? On a recent IPL match next to me in the Vijay Merchant stand sat a family of three. The man is a security guard who has brought his wife and young daughter to the game. 3 tickets would have put him back by a month’s earnings and in return an ergonomically impossible plastic bench where unless you are size zero you will struggle to fit in comfortably.
The BCCI is supposed plough it back into the sport from where it earns. Instead it is milking the franchise for extra juice. The pitches have been flattened to a level that I am convinced I can also give Bumrah a whack or two before he castles my stumps! I miss the battle of wits between the bowler and a batsman.
India’s top 10 IT Companies were valued at $400 billion in Dec’24 and today at about $235 billion have nearly loss half their value.
Peel the onion and you see the same pattern. In decadal good times instead of investing, fat dividend payouts were made.
The automobile guys have done a relatively better job with electric cars but when you visit plants in India and those in China it appears we operate in a different century!
Pharma we played the Process vs Product patent and on generics became the pharmacy to the world but over 75% of our APIs come from China. Great start but then we remained there instead of going up the value chain and playing the R&D game.
Commodity manufacturing company CEO will tell you they are hesitant to invest in new capacity because that will mean diluting equity and servicing debt until commercial production starts in the new facility. In the immediate the stock will take a hit.
A bank CEO close to end of his tenure is incentivised to cut costs, stop expansion of branches and stop investing in technology so that he can retire on a high.
Which voter does not like free money, electricity, loan waivers etc. So is it a surprise we seeing competitive redistributive economics at play with voters almost conducting an auction on who can give them more. Long term consequences be damned.
Finance minister knows that cutting spending or raising rates creates immediate pain, printing currency stops the headache right now, so what if it causes cancer later!
Tax departments seek to maximise their short term targets even if it comes at the cost of survival of the businesses.
Our Institutions, Corporates, Bureaucracy and Private Citizens all have to re-orient themselves towards getting the long term right.
Let's make a beginning at the corporate level which is more under our control. Can we get the decade right even if it comes at the cost of a few quarters? Pandering to market means baby steps instead of leaps.
India has to realise there is no gain without pain.
Starting tomorrow, Supreme court of India is on a six-week summer vacation and will be operating at just 19% of its capacity. There are 53 million cases pending in Indian courts - 93,143 of them are pending in the Supreme Court.
A judge can go on a vacation, a judiciary cannot.
GDP
🇨🇳 : $20.85 trillion
🇮🇳 : $4.15 trillion
Education budget
🇨🇳 : $906 billion (4.35% of total gdp)
🇮🇳 : $16 billion (0.39% of total gdp)
Research & development budget
🇨🇳 : $1.03 trillion (4.94% of total gdp)
🇮🇳 : $8 billion (0.00091% of total gdp)
Healthcare budget
🇨🇳 : $300 billion (1.44% of total gdp)
🇮🇳 : $12.8 billion (0.31% of total gdp)
Freebies budget
🇨🇳 : $22 billion (0.11% of total gdp)
🇮🇳 : $107 billion (2.58% of total gdp)
India has now forgotten the US-Iran war, oil spike, INR depreciation, FII outflows etc.
All thanks to “Melodi” 😀
One photo-op and suddenly macros have vanished overnight.
Decided to be a good citizen. Inspired by PM’s call for austerity, left the car at home.
Auto to the Metro station: ₹30. Metro ticket: ₹30. Feeder bus for the last stretch: ₹20. Total one way: ₹80. Return journey: another ₹80. Grand daily total: ₹160.
My car gives 14 kilometres to a litre. Office is 7 kilometres from home. Roughly ₹100 a day, door to door, including the petrol and the quiet dignity of arriving without fuss.
Public transport, in other words, costs me ₹60 more than driving myself. Per day. In a city with a functioning Metro.
This is what we call last-mile connectivity gap — the small, unglamorous gap between the grand infrastructure and your actual front door. Austerity, apparently, is for the commuter alone. The PM travels by motorcade. The last I checked.
Will Waaree Energies make money or not, that’s not my point for today. But the scale of their backward and horizontal integration needs to be appreciated.
In a way, these cos. must continuously integrate backwards and horizontally to extend their growth horizon & that’s exactly what Waaree is doing.
A learning I had today from the founders podcast , since its the Berkshire Hathaway AGM season , I was listening to the Charlie and Warren Episode , something that stuck with me
stay in the game long enough to get lucky , someone else will invent a technology that can drastically increase the value of your business market
Munger and Buffett talk about you know the fact that coke benefited incredibly because somebody else that did not work at Coca-Cola invented refrigeration , all they had to do was survive and thrive long enough to get lucky , most of the asymmetric/unseen gains come to those who can wait and keep building !
The psychology of investing is that you have to anticipate how other people's opinions are going to change on a company before they know it themselves.
Taiwan market cap now is $4.2 trillion.
Taiwan GDP is $900 Bn .. market cap to GDP is 450%.. one stock alone TSMC is 40% of market cap..
But Taiwan is AI play and attractive.
And as per experts India at 18-19 times is expensive.. because there is no AI play.
Sahi hai !!
There are no rewards to be won for generating the highest return on our portfolios. But there are irreversible consequences to be faced for not having enough money for our goals. The value of a portfolio is therefore way more important than the rate of return it generates.
What should lead?
Financials
Autos
Capital market players
Gold lenders/jewellery
Power equipment proxies
Mining businesses
Unique manufacturing companies
This is where interesting opportunities exists
You cannot buy a stock thinking it will be a multi-bagger , you are merely rewarded for a process that sets the highest probability for strong outcomes , many times you won’t know which stock can surprise you the most , but process that is strong enables this optionality to reveal multibaggers
The return is the reward of the process that enables asymmetric returns
Process > one stock
@soicfinance And guess what, the HUGE US brands making sugary drinks and food will do something about it going forward. It might come down to fighting the GIANT pharma lobby in the US who won’t just give in. Seems likely to be a juicy close encounter going forward!