James Chappell

[Josh Man @JoshMandell6]

Half Bitcoin, half Bitcoin Treasury Companies. It's on the website.

[David Lawrence @d_1awrence]

So let me get this straight...

The Clarity Act is rumoured to be announced shortly 👀

Trillions of dollars are going to flow into the crypto space and inadvertently into the Bitcoin network.

Morgan Stanley are about to launch their ETF - a 2% allocation would produce 3x the inflows that IBIT produces

Strategy have announced two $21B ATM facilities to allow them to buy Bitcoin.

$STRC & $SATA are close to par with 14 days left before the ex-dividend date

Metaplanet have announced a new credit card to give Bitcoin rewards to holders

And the US government have $9T to refinance, before we even begin to think about paying for the war with Iran.

But there's still people posting charts saying that Bitcoin is heading for $40k because of '2022's pattern'?

[Adam Livingston @AdamBLiv]

🔥THE ULTIMATE MSTR BULL CASE - 12 MINUTES TO BLOW YOUR MIND🔥

Strategy is going to buy ALL of the Bitcoin and they will be the most valuable company in the world.

Don't believe me? Watch this video.

In this video, I break down the craziest, and somehow still realistic, 10-year MSTR model we’ve built yet.

Using a framework based on what Strategy has already done with MSTR and STRC capital raises, I show how Bitcoin NAV could compound into something utterly monstrous over the next decade, even with a built-in 2 week monthly cool-off period where ZERO CAPITAL is raised.

This is where the thesis gets wild.

Debt gets crushed as a percentage of enterprise value.

Preferred scales, but stabilizes.

Bitcoin NAV goes vertical.

And the first thing that breaks in the model is not the balance sheet.

It’s Bitcoin scarcity itself.

THAT'S THE REAL STORY HERE:

[James Wynn 🔱 @JamesWynnReal]

To all those bears out there... now is not the time.

You're gonna be sidelined or catching the train at the next station.

Vanguard just bought $202.5m $MSTR for the first time.

And you're bearish? I believe once the light is shining on Bitcoin we can go and do a 'gold-like' rally.

One we have never seen before. Ultimate FOMO on a worldwide governmental, institutional and retail level.

.com boom type of rally. The AI type of rally... and so on..

The big money is here. This is what you all wished for. And now you're bearish?

Wynn

[nini @SCUDERIAFEMBOY]

canal+ their promo for abu dhabi 😌

[Swan @Swan]

“Did Wall Street just pull off the most coordinated Bitcoin shakeout in history?”

Gold is screaming “system bankrupt.”
Bitcoin gets clubbed into a shakeout while liquidity tightens… right before the liquidity wave.
You decide what that means 👇

[SightBringer @_The_Prophet__]

⚡️What you’re really seeing here is the first stage of a global unit-of-account fracture.

•In nominal USD terms, everything looks like it’s booming: stocks up triple digits, homes up double digits, “wealth” everywhere. That’s the performance everyone sees.

•In gold terms, the illusion cracks: stocks and homes flat-to-negative, real wealth stagnating.

•In Bitcoin terms, the veil is gone: catastrophic real losses in every traditional asset.

This is the same signature that marked every pre-hyperinflationary or currency regime shift in history: when people cling to the debasing unit, they feel rich but measured in the next credible collateral, their system is already collapsing.

And the “risk asset” meme about Bitcoin? That’s just a coping frame. As long as Wall Street treats BTC as a tech stock with volatility, they can keep it in the risk bucket. But functionally it’s already behaving like a parallel reserve ledger: it’s the only denominator that makes the post-2020 global economy look like Argentina.

This is why the system feels “off” - why wages don’t match prices, why debt is ballooning, why policy feels reactive. We’re in a regime where the unit of account is decaying faster than the public narrative can absorb. The Fed, the government, the media - all still speaking USD, all still benchmarking to a melting ice cube. The chart you’re looking at is the unofficial scoreboard in a silent currency war.

So when I strip all the polite commentary away, the honest take is:

•The U.S. is running the final phase of a classic imperial carry trade: draw in global capital, inflate domestic asset prices in nominal terms, export the currency risk abroad.

•Gold shows stagnation.

•Bitcoin shows collapse.

•If BTC continues to monetize, that chart is a pre-revaluation ledger of the old world being marked down.

This isn’t a normal market cycle. It’s the unit-of-account transition phase. And almost no one is positioned for it because they’re still measuring their “returns” in the wrong yardstick.

That’s the scarv layer…not just “debasement trade,” but a living record of a dying denominator.

[Cris Reed 🎙️Bitcoin Mindset Podcast @CrisReed]

GM

I’ve listened to hundreds of hours of Saylor over the years and this is one of my favorite clips.

Go against conventional wisdom.

Adopt an “exploitative” strategy that no one understands.

$MSTR

#bitcoin

[James Chappell @jpchappell3]

@LH44_Lisa @TheRedFlags_Pod Hungary Ferrari no sense explained

[Ehraz Ahmed @ehrazahmedd]

$MSTR Analysts are sleepwalking:
- Street EPS Estimate: –$0.03
- Real EPS (BTC reval): ~$40.10
- Discrepancy: ~+133,000%

This quarter won’t be just a beat.
It will be a statistical earthquake.

Wall Street is still modeling MSTR like it’s 2018, ignoring the mark-to-market gains from Bitcoin accounting (per new FASB rules starting 2025).

1. THE MATH:
- $14.2B gross gain on BTC
- $11.2B net income post-tax
- EPS: $40.10
- Market pricing in EPS of –$0.03 🤡

If the market catches this mispricing, you get:
1. Short-covering panic.
2. Quant model rerating.
3. PE multiple re-expansion.
And with $MSTX, I have a front-row at the fireworks.

I’m betting on:
1. BTC mooning into ETF inflows.
2. MSTR printing stupid EPS due to accounting tailwinds.
3. Wall Street playing catch-up in disbelief.
4. Retail FOMO + institutional risk-chasing.

2. Why is nobody pricing in the monster EPS beat?

a. Legacy analysts = GAAP myopia + Zero BTC literacy.

i. Most Wall Street analysts don’t understand Bitcoin and they certainly don’t understand how MSTR’s accounting has changed post-FASB.

ii. They’re still modeling it like:
“MicroStrategy is a software company with BTC on the balance sheet.”

iii. In reality:
“MicroStrategy is a Bitcoin holding company with optional software revenue.”

This structural misunderstanding leads to models that omit the Q2 $14B BTC gain entirely because it doesn’t flow through traditional EBITDA or adjusted EPS frameworks.

2. Sell-Side incentives = "Stay safe, Don’t front-run"

a. Sell-side analysts don’t get paid for being right.
They get paid for being consensus.

b. Making a bold call like “$MSTR will post $40 EPS, 1000x Street estimates” is career suicide if wrong and barely rewarded if right.

c. So they just write: “We maintain Neutral. Target price $425. Awaiting clarity on Bitcoin’s trajectory.”
Safe. Vanilla. Useless…..

3. Compliance handcuffs & institutional inertia:

a. Many fund mandates prohibit exposure to BTC, so MSTR gets filtered out.

b. Others lump it in with “crypto junk” and dismiss it.

c. Also, most analysts haven’t updated their models post-FASB because:
“It’s too complicated to rebuild our model from scratch this quarter.”

d. So they just delay incorporating it. And will soon have to play catch up.

4. They’re stuck on Q1 PTSD:

a. "Q1 earnings looked like a disaster."

b. "EPS –$16.49, rev miss, negative cash flow."

c. But that was before the FASB accounting kicked in, where BTC gains can flow into earnings.
Wall Street got burned in Q1, so now they’re sitting out Q2.

5. They don’t see it as an operating business:

“This is just a BTC ETF with leverage.”

They're not entirely wrong — but that’s missing the point:
A BTC ETF doesn’t generate EPS. MSTR now does.

The moment this gets re-rated as a GAAP-profitable BTC vehicle, you’re no longer trading at a BTC NAV discount, you’re trading at a BTC earnings multiple.

6. THE ALGOS:
If EPS even sniffs breakeven, let alone prints +$40... the algos will go absolutely feral.

Here’s why:
1. Any positive EPS = Model detonation.
a. The Street is expecting –$0.03 EPS.
b. But if MSTR drops even +$1.00 in EPS...
That’s a 𝟑,𝟑𝟑𝟑% upside surprise.

Not a beat. Not a whisper. A thermonuclear dislocation.

Algos will:
1. Auto-reweight MSTR into GAAP-positive filters.
2. Trigger momentum and earnings surprise baskets.
3. Trip short-covering protocols.
4. Increase weight in “crypto-adjacent” ETFs.

7. Index inclusion triggers:

Positive trailing EPS enables future S&P500 inclusion, especially if MSTR can now show:

a. 4 quarters of GAAP profitability (which they might hit next if BTC holds up).

b. sustainable treasury strategy.

c. recurring profitability via BTC repricing (now legal under FASB).

Algos are already programmed to front-run index inclusion catalysts.

8. Quant Models will snap!:

Most quant funds don’t watch X or TradingView, they scan filings.

If they parse a $10–$40 positive EPS in the Q2 10-Q?
That’s a factor regime shift.

MSTR instantly:
a. Drops into value factor screens.
b. Re-ranks in volatility-adjusted Sharpe models.
c. Qualifies for earnings momentum factors

9. Short interest = Firestarter:

MSTR short interest is 10% of float.

Many are playing “this is just a leveraged ETF” and shorting it versus long BTC.

If EPS is +$40 and BTC is up?
That pair blows up instantly.

10. Media lag = Retail FOMO:

Once CNBC, Bloomberg etc. wake up and realize: “Wait, MSTR just printed $11B in net income from BTC?”
They’ll shout: “MSTR is a Bitcoin stock with profits!” …Too late.
By then?

Algos will have bid it 30% higher.
Retail will pile in.
And then Wall Street will say “we raise PT to $600.”

9. How much M/nav?

Phong Le, CEO of Strategy recently said in an interview – “You should value MicroStrategy the way you'd value any operating company, except instead of EBITDA, you use BTC dollar gains as the “earnings stream.”
So if:
a BTC appreciates by $25B/year…
·b. And you apply a 20x–30x multiple (like on high-growth tech)…
You arrive at valuations like: $500B to $1T for MSTR.

Justification for that ‘valuation logic’:
1. Traditional models don’t apply to MicroStrategy.
2. This is not alchemy (as critics say); it’s a form of "Bitcoin-yield-based valuation."
3. BTC dollar gains are real, calculable AND repeatable.
4. Therefore, the multiple on those gains should resemble high-growth tech, not static book value.

He literally says:
"Maybe 10x NAV, maybe 20x NAV... It's not alchemy. This has been happening."

To end this:
Even if Jeff Walton’s EPS calculation of $40 is overstated…
The surprise is not in the number. The surprise is in the direction.
If the EPS is even +$0.01?
Algos won't “analyze.” They’ll just say: “Oh sh*t, it flipped.”
And they’ll front-run the next 3 quarters. Hard.

NONE OF THIS IS PRICED IN.

@PunterJeff

/END.

[Jeff Walton @PunterJeff]

@hswinters13 History shows front running occurs when qualifying.

I could care less about actually entering tbh.

$MSTR doesn't need $SPY, $SPY needs $MSTR

[Jeff Walton @PunterJeff]

91% chance of $MSTR qualifying for S&P in 6 days https://t.co/uGkzAuTQ2Y

[YoungHoon Kim, IQ 276 @yhbryankimiq]

As the world’s highest IQ record holder, I believe that Jesus Christ is God, the way and the truth and the life.

[Michael Saylor @saylor]

On @BloombergTV: I explain $STRK, $STRF, $STRD, the risk of shorting $MSTR, the rise of Bitcoin Treasury Companies, our 100% BTC @Strategy, debunk Quantum FUD, and show why AI is bullish for Bitcoin.

[Josh Man @JoshMandell6]

I asked one of my old Trad Fi friends for his opinion on Bitcoin.

"It's worthless", he said.

"I know", I replied. "But let's hear it anyway"

[Josh Man @JoshMandell6]

I'd better buy some Bitcoin
I'd better buy some $MSTR
I'd better buy some call options

These are the "I'des of March"

[Michael Saylor @saylor]

What's The Problem?

[Michael Saylor @saylor]

I journeyed into the @FoxBusiness studios to discuss digital capital, the growth of the #Bitcoin asset class, the promise of Bitcoin as a protocol for prosperity, and the emergence of Bitcoin as the world's reserve capital network offering global property rights, with @cvpayne.

[Jeff Walton @PunterJeff]

$MSTR thoughts - Sunday 11/24/24 https://t.co/atHfatyfd0